All over it

[nobull]

yowsers...............had france..........what a disappointment........boooo hoooo

[Optional]

Yeah Marseille really forgot to turn up. Hate nil-all.

[Optional]

December 3rd

Hungary 1 Ferencvaros v Kecskeméti [2 1] o3.00 $1.96 postponed
Germany 2 Augsburg v Cottbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.70 Played tomorrow
Turkey 1 Trabzonspor v Bucaspor [3 0] o2.50 $1.65
France 3 Orleans v Guingamp [1 2] o2.50 $1.90 Could not get bet on
Belgium 2 Boussu Dour v FC Brussel [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
France 2 Sedan v Reims [2 0] o2.00 $1.67
France 2 Dijon v Tours [1 1] o2.00 $1.80
Netherlands 2 G.A. Eagles v Stormvogels/Telstar [2 1] o2.50 $1.65
Netherlands 2 Volendam v Eindhoven [2 1] o2.50 $1.60
Netherlands 2 Emmen v Dordrecht [2 2] o2.50 $1.57
Netherlands 2 Helmond v Veendam [1 2] o2.50 $1.66 All postponed
Netherlands 2 Roosendaal v Waalwijk [1 2] o2.50 $1.59
Netherlands 2 Sparta v Apeldoorn [2 1] o2.50 $1.50 Postponed
Belgium 1 Lokeren v St. Liege [2 1] o2.50 $1.92
Chile 1 A. Italiano v U. De Chile [2 1] o2.50 $1.55

Today's card has been decimated by bad weather, and I could not get a couple of the bets on (a downside of capping earlier than usual I think), so am re-posting what's left for clarity.

December 3rd

Turkey 1 Trabzonspor v Bucaspor [3 0] o2.50 $1.65
Netherlands 2 Roosendaal v Waalwijk [1 2] o2.50 $1.59
Belgium 1 Lokeren v St. Liege [2 1] o2.50 $1.92
Chile 1 A. Italiano v U. De Chile [2 1] o2.50 $1.55

And these 3 games, I could not get the lines I wanted, so took an extra .25 or .5, and went small.

Belgium 2 Boussu Dour v FC Brussel [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
France 2 Sedan v Reims [2 0] o2.00 $1.67
France 2 Dijon v Tours [1 1] o2.00 $1.80

[Optional]

4-2 for the day, +0.86 units

Turkey 1 Trabzonspor v Bucaspor [3 0] o2.50 $1.65 2-0
France 2 Sedan v Reims [2 0] o2.00 $1.67 0-0
France 2 Dijon v Tours [1 1] o2.00 $1.80 3-2
Netherlands 2 Roosendaal v Waalwijk [1 2] o2.50 $1.59 2-4
Belgium 1 Lokeren v St. Liege [2 1] o2.50 $1.92 2-1
Chile 1 A. Italiano v U. De Chile [2 1] o2.50 $1.55 1-2


Picks 95-75½-11½ .557 -0.60 units
Avg Odds $1.804 = Break Even .554
Current Advantage 0.30%
Scores 57-27-98 = Confidence .434

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

December 4th

Germany 2 Augsburg v Cottbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
Italy 2 Ascoli v Padova [1 2] o2.00 $1.74
Denmark 1 FC Copenhagen v Esbjerg [2 1] o2.50 $1.65
Germany 1 Stuttgart v Hoffenheim [1 2] o2.50 $1.74
Germany 1 Moenchengladbach v Hannover [2 2] o3.00 $2.12
Wales 1 Bangor v Port Talbot [2 1] o2.50 $1.40

more to come

[Optional]

England 1 Birmingham v Tottenham [1 2] o2.50 $2.05
England 2 Watford v Leicester [1 2] o2.50 $2.04
England 2 Leeds v Crystal Palace [2 1] o2.50 $1.86
Spain 2 Numancia v Betis [1 2] o2.50 $2.30
England 3 Swindon v Sheffield Wed [1 2] o2.50 $1.96

[Optional]

Switzerland 1 Basel v Young Boys [2 2] o3.00 $1.80
Wales 1 TNS v Airbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.41
Denmark 1 Odense v Aalborg [2 1] o2.50 $2.12
Switzerland 1 St. Gallen v Xamax [1 2] o2.50 $1.65

[Optional]

Cyprus 1 Olympiakos Nikosia v Doxa [2 1] o2.50 $1.97
Germany 1 Schalke v Bayern [1 2] o2.50 $2.00
France 1 Lens v Auxerre [1 1] o2.00 $1.88
France 1 Lille v Lorient [2 1] o2.50 $2.15
France 1 Sochaux v Valenciennes [1 1] o2.00 $1.71

[Optional]

Belgium 1 Eupen v Gent [1 2] o2.50 $1.73
Portugal 1 Leiria v Braga [1 2] o2.00 $1.87


And that's it for the day. Phew, that was a lot of work, glad it's done and I can sit back and enjoy a match now.

[Optional]

12-7-2 for the day, +3.14 units

Germany 2 Augsburg v Cottbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.70 4-0
Italy 2 Ascoli v Padova [1 2] o2.00 $1.74 1-0
Denmark 1 FC Copenhagen v Esbjerg [2 1] o2.50 $1.65 3-1
Germany 1 Stuttgart v Hoffenheim [1 2] o2.50 $1.74 1-1
Germany 1 Moenchengladbach v Hannover [2 2] o3.00 $2.12 1-2
Wales 1 Bangor v Port Talbot [2 1] o2.50 $1.40 8-1
England 1 Birmingham v Tottenham [1 2] o2.50 $2.05 1-1
England 2 Watford v Leicester [1 2] o2.50 $2.04 3-2
England 2 Leeds v Crystal Palace [2 1] o2.50 $1.86 2-1
Spain 2 Numancia v Betis [1 2] o2.50 $2.30 1-2
England 3 Swindon v Sheffield Wed [1 2] o2.50 $1.96 2-1
Switzerland 1 Basel v Young Boys [2 2] o3.00 $1.80 3-1
Wales 1 TNS v Airbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.41 2-0
Denmark 1 Odense v Aalborg [2 1] o2.50 $2.12 6-0
Switzerland 1 St. Gallen v Xamax [1 2] o2.50 $1.65 0-2
Cyprus 1 Olympiakos Nikosia v Doxa [2 1] o2.50 $1.97 1-0
Germany 1 Schalke v Bayern [1 2] o2.50 $2.00 2-0
France 1 Lens v Auxerre [1 1] o2.00 $1.88 1-1
France 1 Sochaux v Valenciennes [1 1] o2.00 $1.71 2-1
Belgium 1 Eupen v Gent [1 2] o2.50 $1.73 0-3
Portugal 1 Leiria v Braga [1 2] o2.00 $1.87 3-1

France 1 Lille v Lorient [2 1] o2.50 $2.15 (Postponed. Plays Monday)
Italy 2 Torino v Siena [1 1] o2.00 $1.70 (Plays Tomorrow)


Picks 107-82½-13½ .565 +2.54 units
Avg Odds $1.808 = Break Even .553
Current Advantage 1.17%
Scores 64-28-111 = Confidence .451

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

December 5th

Italy 2 Torino v Siena [1 1] o2.00 $1.70
France 1 Lille v Lorient [2 1] o2.50 $2.15

Kicking off in 15 minutes.
Austria 1 Rapid Wien v Ried [1 2] o2.50 $2.00
Switzerland 1 Zurich v Thun [2 1] o2.50 $1.67
Switzerland 1 Bellinzona v Luzern [2 1] o2.50 $1.69

Working on matches that start in 75 mins now.

[Optional]

Spain 1 Villarreal v Sevilla [2 1] o2.25 $1.57
Brazil 1 Goias v Corinthians [1 2] o2.50 $1.75
Brazil 1 Sao Paulo v Atletico-** [1 2] o2.50 $1.81

[Optional]

Portugal 1 Portimonense v Sporting [1 2] o2.00 $1.62
Chile 1 Nublense Uniön v San Felipe [3 0] o2.50 $1.76
Chile 1 U. Catolica v Everton [3 1] o2.50 $1.56

That's it for today


Just realised I forgot to post these picks earlier. Matches already completed. just for the record.

England 1 Sunderland v West Ham [2 1] o2.50 $2.04
France 1 Nice v Marseille [0 2] o2.00 $1.69
France 1 PSG v Brest [1 1] o2.00 $1.63
Portugal 1 Rio Ave v Beira Mar [1 1] o2.00 $1.92

[Optional]

December 6th

Denmark 1 Lyngby v Midtjylland [1 2] o2.50 $1.75
Switzerland 2 Vaduz v Winterthur [3 1] o2.50 $1.50
Italy 1 Napoli v Palermo [1 2] o2.50 $1.85

[Optional]

December 7th

England C Leyton v Droylsden [2 1] o2.50 $1.65


Will catch up the result stats before the weekend games.

[phenomenon]

I am on it too mate,
also both teams didn t play at weekend,this is the reason which makes me really love this game's over

[Optional]

All my picks are statistically based, so nice to hear some opinion based on info.

[Optional]

OK, it's time for an explanation, just in case anyone is following along and interested.

I've been developing my system for 3 months now, and am finally up to the point where I am satisfied it will work, and it is far enough developed to start betting 'real' money on it.

I've bumped my bankroll up to $1000 this week. All going well, the plan is to bump that up to $5000 at the end of January, aiming for a $20,000 total by the end of 2011.

Might sound modest to some, or ludicrous to others, but I think you need to set goals to achieve success and that's my best estimate of what's achievable right now. I might adjust that when I move to the 5k BR too.

I'm up to what I call Phase 3.

Phase 1 was developing the picking system and testing it with minimum bets. It took about 2 weeks to refine the basics, then 4 weeks more betting it.

I wasn't 'too' concerned about picking a high percentage of winners, as what I was wanting was a subset of matches from each day that had a higher chance of going Over 2.5 than the overall average. For my needs, any edge was enough to get started with.

Over that 4 weeks, only picking in leagues with more than 50% games going over, and without any regard for the price, the system picked at around 77%.

That blew my wildest expectations. 60% would have been a huge result by my pre-starting hopes. But, that still isn't a winning formula, as I really didn't make much profit over that time due to the average price being around $1.65. Not that it mattered. As I had what I needed, a method to reliably pick a subset of matches that had a significantly better chance of going o2.5 than the days average.


Phase 2 started with this thread. What I now needed was as much data as possible. Firstly, to give me enough information to start filtering the picks down to a smaller subset, and secondly, to start calculating price targets.

I started picking in almost every league where I could place bets, and adjusting the line I took in response to the prices on offer. What I wanted to see from the picks was an ability to stay over 50% strike rate and over break even. (so again, a subset with any advantage basically. Although in this case, anything near break even would be an excellent result)

After 6 weeks and 30 betting days the pick rate is over 56%, which is slightly above 1% advantage over the average odds of $1.80, and +2 units ahead on bankroll. So again, I'm happy to move onto the next phase.


Phase 3 is taking these picks and finding a way to bet them to best advantage.

I have already started testing 1 strategy for betting Over1.5 during the past 2 weeks, which is up +14.5 units in that time. (I'll share the basics of it later on)

A second strategy, for betting the Over2.5 market starts testing this week, and I also have a couple of ideas for other angles to bet worth exploring.

I'll still be making daily picks in every market I can, but what I will be posting from now on will only be picks for the o2.5 strategy, with bet sizes, and probably a running tally toward my 20k goal.

I'll post some more detailed info and some screenshots of the data in coming days to help explain what I'm doing better, and hopefully give someone a chance to throw in a useful idea or two.

[BebeRebozo]

Hey Opti! Great work btw!
Are you going to have some plays today?
Best of luck for you!

[Optional]

Thanks Bebe.

None today, I'm still trying to finish my spreadsheet calcs to price the new o2.5 picks. It's proving a bit more complex to automate it that I thought. Almost there though.

Will be back strong for Sunday!