All over it

[Optional]

2-0-1 for the day, +2.1 units
Parlays all lost, -3 units

Newcastle v Brisbane Over 2.0 $1.65 [1-2] 1-1
Luton v Corby Town Over 2.5 $1.70 [3-0] 4-2
Ireland v Norway Over 2.5 $2.40 [2-1] 1-2

Picks 44-31-3 .587 +3.17u
Avg Odds $1.771
Parlays 3-12-0 .200 -7.16u
Scores 25-13-40 = Confidence .410

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick/parlay.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

19th November

Austria 2
Grodig v Vienna [2-2] o3.00 $2.00
Altach v Admira [2-1] o2.50 $1.73
FC Lustenau v Gratkorn [1-2] o2.50 $1.66

Belgium 2
Mons v Boussu Dour [2-1] o3.00 $2.03

Czech Rep
Bohemians v Pizen [1-2] o2.50 $1.86

Netherlands 2
Apeldoorn v Den Bosch [1-3] o3.00 $1.95
Roosendaal v Helmond [1-2] o2.50 $1.82
Eindhoven v Cambuur [2-1] o2.50 $1.70

Poland
Gornik Z v Korona [1-2] o2.25 $2.09

Wales
TNS v Lianelli [2-1] o2.50 $1.45


Parlay for $13.20

Grodig v Vienna o3.00 $1.952
Mons v Boussu Dour o3.00 $1.980
Bohemians v Pizen o2.50 $1.847
Apeldoorn v Den Bosch o3.00 $1.847

[Optional]

7-2 for the day, +3.95 units

Grodig v Vienna [2-2] o3.00 $2.00 3-2
Altach v Admira [2-1] o2.50 $1.73 4-0
FC Lustenau v Gratkorn [1-2] o2.50 $1.66 1-3
Mons v Boussu Dour [2-1] o3.00 $2.03 1-0
Bohemians v Pizen [1-2] o2.50 $1.86 1-0
Apeldoorn v Den Bosch [1-3] o3.00 $1.95 3-1
Roosendaal v Helmond [1-2] o2.50 $1.82 2-1
Eindhoven v Cambuur [2-1] o2.50 $1.70 3-0
Gornik Z v Korona [1-2] o2.25 $2.09 2-1
TNS v Lianelli [2-1] o2.50 $1.45 (match postponed)


Picks 51½-33-2½ .609 +10.40u
Avg Odds $1.781 = Break Even .561
Current Advantage 4.80%
Scores 27-14-46 = Confidence .414

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

* I made a correction to the stats today. Had an error in the unit count. Am also dropping the parlay picks.

[Optional]

20th November

England Championship

Barnsley Portsmouth [2 1] o2.50 $1.92
Watford Reading [2 2] o2.50 $1.94
Derby Scunthorpe [3 0] o2.50 $1.70
Doncaster Swansea [2 1] o2.50 $2.18
Bristol City Leicester [1 2] o2.50 $2.04
Norwich Leeds [2 2] o2.75 $1.92

[Optional]

England L1

Rochdale Swindon [2 2] o2.50 $1.88

[Optional]

England Conference

Kidderminster v Eastbourne [3-1] o2.5 $1.74

[Optional]

3-5 for the day, -2.68 units

Barnsley Portsmouth [2 1] o2.50 $1.92 1-0
Watford Reading [2 2] o2.50 $1.94 1-1
Derby Scunthorpe [3 0] o2.50 $1.70 3-2
Doncaster Swansea [2 1] o2.50 $2.18 1-1
Bristol City Leicester [1 2] o2.50 $2.04 2-0
Norwich Leeds [2 2] o2.75 $1.92 1-1
Rochdale Swindon [2 2] o2.50 $1.88 3-3
Kidderminster v Eastbourne [3-1] o2.5 $1.74 2-1


Picks 54½-38-2½ .589 +7.72u
Avg Odds $1.792 = Break Even .558
Current Advantage 3.13%
Scores 29-17-49 = Confidence .384

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

21st November

Denmark 2 Hvidovre v AB Copenhagen [1 2] o2.75 $1.86
Denmark 2 Bronshoj v Aarhus [1 2] o2.50 $1.67
Germany 2 Augsburg v Karlsruher [3 1] o2.50 $1.81
Denmark 1 Silkeborg v Esbjerg [2 1] o2.50 $1.90
England 1 Fulham v Man City [1 1] o2.00 $1.78
England 1 Blackburn v Aston Villa [2 1] o2.25 $2.01
Netherlands 1 Groningen v Feyenoord [3 1] o3.00 $2.14
Netherlands 1 Den Haag v Breda [1 2] o2.50 $1.67
Netherlands 1 Heerenveen v Willem II [3 1] o3.25 $1.80
Belgium 2 Vise v Tienen [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
Belgium 2 OH Leuven v Antwerp [2 1] o3.00 $1.89
Switzerland 2 Lausanne v Locarno [3 1] o3.25 $1.83
Switzerland C Lugano v Sion [1 2] o2.50 $1.67

[Optional]

Netherlands 2 Sparta v Dordrecht [2 1] o3.00 $1.78
Turkey 1 Ankaragucu v Istanbul BB [2 1] o2.25 $2.03
Denmark 2 Vestsjaelland v Viborg [2 1] o2.50 $1.69
Switzerland C Xamax v Bellinzona [2 1] o2.50 $1.67
Germany 1 Stuttgart v Koln [3 1] o2.50 $1.65
Denmark 1 FC Copenhagen v Nordsjaelland [3 0] o2.50 $1.65
Denmark 1 Aalborg v Brondby [1 2] o2.25 $1.86

[Optional]

Italy 1 Chievo v Inter Milan [1 2] o2.00 $1.88
Hungary 1 Videoton v Ujpest [2 1] o2.50 $1.65
Belgium 1 Waregem v St. Liege [1 2] o2.25 $1.75
Belgium 1 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge [2 1] o2.50 $1.60

[Optional]

12½-10-1½ +2.88 units

Denmark 2 Hvidovre v AB Copenhagen [1 2] o2.75 $1.86 2-1 (½ Win / ½ Push)
Denmark 2 Bronshoj v Aarhus [1 2] o2.50 $1.67 1-0
Germany 2 Augsburg v Karlsruher [3 1] o2.50 $1.81 3-1
Denmark 1 Silkeborg v Esbjerg [2 1] o2.50 $1.90 1-1
England 1 Fulham v Man City [1 1] o2.00 $1.78 1-4
England 1 Blackburn v Aston Villa [2 1] o2.25 $2.01 2-0 (½ Push / ½ Loss)
Netherlands 1 Groningen v Feyenoord [3 1] o3.00 $2.14 2-0
Netherlands 1 Den Haag v Breda [1 2] o2.50 $1.67 3-0
Netherlands 1 Heerenveen v Willem II [3 1] o3.25 $1.80 5-0
Belgium 2 Vise v Tienen [2 1] o2.50 $1.70 1-1
Belgium 2 OH Leuven v Antwerp [2 1] o3.00 $1.89 2-0
Switzerland 2 Lausanne v Locarno [3 1] o3.25 $1.83 5-2
Switzerland C Lugano v Sion [1 2] o2.50 $1.67 2-3
Netherlands 2 Sparta v Dordrecht [2 1] o3.00 $1.78 2-2
Turkey 1 Ankaragucu v Istanbul BB [2 1] o2.25 $2.03 2-2
Denmark 2 Vestsjaelland v Viborg [2 1] o2.50 $1.69 3-2
Switzerland C Xamax v Bellinzona [2 1] o2.50 $1.67 1-0
Germany 1 Stuttgart v Koln [3 1] o2.50 $1.65 0-1
Denmark 1 FC Copenhagen v Nordsjaelland [3 0] o2.50 $1.65 2-1
Denmark 1 Aalborg v Brondby [1 2] o2.25 $1.86 1-2
Italy 1 Chievo v Inter Milan [1 2] o2.00 $1.88 2-1
Hungary 1 Videoton v Ujpest [2 1] o2.50 $1.65 1-0
Belgium 1 Waregem v St. Liege [1 2] o2.25 $1.75 2-0 (½ Push / ½ Loss)
Belgium 1 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge [2 1] o2.50 $1.60 0-1


Picks 67-48-4 .583 +10.60 units
Avg Odds $1.792 = Break Even .558
Current Advantage 2.45%
Scores 37-20-62 = Confidence .403

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

22nd November

Czech Rep 1 Brno v Ostrava [1 1] o2.00 $1.70
Czech Rep 1 Teplice v Jablonec [1 1] o2.00 $1.72
Denmark 1 Odense v Midtjylland [2 1] o2.50 $1.80
Germany 2 Duisburg v Cottbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.92
Netherlands 2 Volendam v Emmen [2 1] o3.00 $1.66
Romania 1 Victoria Branesti v Dinamo Bucharest [2 1] o2.25 $1.92
Spain 1 Getafe v Zaragoza [1 2] o2.25 $1.80
Turkey 1 Fenerbahce v Bucaspor [3 0] o2.75 $1.85

[Optional]

6-½-1½ for the day, +5.37 units.

Czech Rep 1 Brno v Ostrava [1 1] o2.00 $1.70 0-2
Czech Rep 1 Teplice v Jablonec [1 1] o2.00 $1.72 1-2
Denmark 1 Odense v Midtjylland [2 1] o2.50 $1.80 3-2
Germany 2 Duisburg v Cottbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.92 2-2
Netherlands 2 Volendam v Emmen [2 1] o3.00 $1.66 1-3
Romania 1 Victoria Branesti v Dinamo Bucharest [2 1] o2.25 $1.92 2-4
Spain 1 Getafe v Zaragoza [1 2] o2.25 $1.80 1-1 (Half Push/Half Loss)
Turkey 1 Fenerbahce v Bucaspor [3 0] o2.75 $1.85 5-2


Picks 73-48½-5½ .601 +15.97 units
Avg Odds $1.792 = Break Even .558
Current Advantage 4.28%
Scores 43-20-64 = Confidence .433

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

23rd November

England 3 Bournemouth v Yeovil [3 1] Over2.75 $1.98
England 3 Peterborough v Leyton [1 2] Over2.75 $1.77
England 3 Notts County v Swindon [1 2] Over2.50 $1.91
England 3 Colchester v Brentford [1 2] Over2.25 $1.71
England 3 Plymouth v Dagenham & Red [1 2] Over2.25 $1.71
England 4 Macclesfield v Cheltenham [2 1] Over2.25 $1.79
England 4 Chesterfield v Oxford [3 0] Over2.50 $1.90
England 4 Barnet v Gillingham [1 1] Over2.25 $1.80

[Optional]

4-3-1 for the day, +2.18 units.

England 3 Bournemouth v Yeovil [3 1] Over2.75 $1.98 2-0
England 3 Peterborough v Leyton [1 2] Over2.75 $1.77 2-2
England 3 Notts County v Swindon [1 2] Over2.50 $1.91 1-0
England 3 Colchester v Brentford [1 2] Over2.25 $1.71 0-2 (Half Push/Half Loss)
England 3 Plymouth v Dagenham & Red [1 2] Over2.25 $1.71 2-1
England 4 Macclesfield v Cheltenham [2 1] Over2.25 $1.79 0-2 (Half Push/Half Loss)
England 4 Chesterfield v Oxford [3 0] Over2.50 $1.90 1-2
England 4 Barnet v Gillingham [1 1] Over2.25 $1.80 1-2


Picks 77-51½-6½ .599 +18.15 units
Avg Odds $1.794 = Break Even .557
Current Advantage 4.17%
Scores 45-21-69 = Confidence .433

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

24th November

Austria 1 Salzburg v Sturm [1 1] o2.25 $1.86
Netherlands 1 Roda v Utrecht [2 1] o2.50 $1.86
Wales 1 Neath v TNS [2 2] o3.00 $1.82

[Optional]

0-2½-½ for the day, -2.5 units.

Austria 1 Salzburg v Sturm [1 1] o2.25 $1.86 2-0 (½ Push/½ Loss)
Netherlands 1 Roda v Utrecht [2 1] o2.50 $1.86 1-1
Wales 1 Neath v TNS [2 2] o3.00 $1.82 1-1

Picks 77-54-7 .588 +6.65 units
Avg Odds $1.795 = Break Even .557
Current Advantage 3.07%
Scores 45-22-71 = Confidence .424

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

* I incorrectly adjusted the unit count last week, due to a calc error in my spreadsheet. I was adding, instead of subtracting, .5 units for each ½P½L. Count is correct again now.

[Optional]

25th November

England 5 Histon v Bath City [2 2] o2.75 $2.05
Portugal 2 Varzim v Feirense [1 1] o2.25 $2.08

[Blue_Chips]

What about the over in Italy (Lazio/Albinoleffe)?

[Optional]

My system does not work so well with Cup matches so I usually avoid them.

I rarely go for games where 1 team is not expected to score either.

[Optional]

½-½-1 for the day, +0.03 units.

England 5 Histon v Bath City [2 2] o2.75 $2.05 1-2 (½ Win/½ Push)
Portugal 2 Varzim v Feirense [1 1] o2.25 $2.08 2-0 (½ Push/ ½ Loss)


Picks 77½-54½-8 .587 +6.68 units
Avg Odds $1.801 = Break Even .555
Current Advantage 3.20%
Scores 45-22-73 = Confidence .425

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

26th November

Ukraine 1 Illychivets v Kryvbas [2 1] o2.50 $1.95
Hungary 1 Lombard Papa v Debreceni VSC [2 1] o2.75 $1.95
Austria 2 Hartberg v TSV Gratkorn [1 2] o2.50 $1.60
Netherlands 2 Cambuur v Roosendaal [2 1] o2.50 $1.69
Netherlands 2 Den Bosch v GA Eagles [1 2] o2.50 $1.67
Netherlands 2 Emmen v Waalwijk [1 3] o3.50 $2.30
Belgium 1 Genk v Gent [2 1] o2.75 $1.80
Wales 1 Airbus v Bangor [1 2] o3.00 $1.80
Netherlands 1 Breda v PSV [1 2] o2.75 $1.80
Italy 1 Atalanta v Livorno [1 1] o2.00 $1.71
England C Crawley v Swindon [1 2] o2.50 $1.76
Spain 2 Ponferradina v Celta Vigo [1 2] o2.50 $2.21
Portugal 1 Setubal v Academica [1 1] o2.00 $1.90

[Blue_Chips]

Good luck today!

[Optional]

1½-9-1½ for the day, -7.8 units. (ouch)

Ukraine 1 Illychivets v Kryvbas [2 1] o2.50 $1.95 1-1
Hungary 1 Lombard Papa v Debreceni VSC [2 1] o2.75 $1.95 1-1
Austria 2 Hartberg v TSV Gratkorn [1 2] o2.50 $1.60 2-0
Netherlands 2 Cambuur v Roosendaal [2 1] o2.50 $1.69 2-0
Netherlands 2 Den Bosch v GA Eagles [1 2] o2.50 $1.67 1-1
Netherlands 2 Emmen v Waalwijk [1 3] o3.50 $2.30 2-1
Belgium 1 Genk v Gent [2 1] o2.75 $1.80 1-2 (½ Push / ½ Win)
Wales 1 Airbus v Bangor [1 2] o3.00 $1.80 (Abandoned)
Netherlands 1 Breda v PSV [1 2] o2.75 $1.80 4-2
Italy 1 Atalanta v Livorno [1 1] o2.00 $1.71 0-2
England C Crawley v Swindon [1 2] o2.50 $1.76 1-1
Spain 2 Ponferradina v Celta Vigo [1 2] o2.50 $2.21 0-0
Portugal 1 Setubal v Academica [1 1] o2.00 $1.90 0-1


Picks 79-63½-9½ .554 -1.13 units
Avg Odds $1.804 = Break Even .554
Current Advantage 0.00%
Scores 46-23-83 = Confidence .424

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Blue_Chips]

Wow!

[Optional]

Yeah wow indeed. I expect to have good and bad days playing so many leagues, but hope there aren't ever too many more like that one.

I take some comfort from the daily confidence rating on the total predictions being high, suggesting it was really just a very unlucky day.

I also play all those games live in-play Over 1.5, so didn't take quite as bad a bath as it appears.

I'll add a post explaining what I'm doing, why I am making so many picks, and how I'm betting them in the next couple of days.

[Optional]

PS. I also lost a bit of a plunge bet on Swansea -0.5,-1 in the Championship game. And needed just 1 more correct to tie with the leader in a monthly board contest, and Portland Trailblazers let me down there too.

Think I walked in front of a black cat yesterday!

[Optional]

28th November

Spain 2 Granada v Cordoba [2 1] o2.50 $2.28
Netherlands 1 De Graafschap v Vitesse [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
Netherlands 1 Feyenoord v Den Haag [1 2] o2.50 $1.62
Turkey 1 Karabukspor v Ankaragucu [2 1] o2.50 $2.10
Denmark 1 Brondby v Odense [2 2] o2.50 $1.95
Switzerland 1 St Gallen v Zurich [1 2] o2.50 $1.59
Switzerland 1 Xamax v Basel [1 2] o2.50 $1.51
England 1 Tottenham v Liverpool [2 1] o2.50 $2.00
Belgium 2 Heist KSK v Boussu Dour [2 1] o2.75 $1.90
Scotland 1 Motherwell v Hearts [1 1] o2.00 $1.68
Wales 1 Neath v Prestatyn [2 1] o2.50 $1.53
Portugal 2 Penafiel v Arouca [1 2] o2.00 $1.77
Cyprus 1 AEK Larnaca v Anorthosis [2 1] o2.00 $1.70
France 1 Lyon v PSG [2 1] o2.25 $1.92
France 1 Caen v Sochaux [1 1] o2.00 $1.63
Portugal 1 Beira Mar v Benfica [1 2] o2.50 $2.00
Portugal 1 Braga v Nacional [2 1] o2.00 $1.76

Possibly more to come, in a few hours.

[Optional]

9-5-1 for the day, +2.07 units.

Spain 2 Granada v Cordoba [2 1] o2.50 $2.28 1-1
Netherlands 1 De Graafschap v Vitesse [2 1] o2.50 $1.70 1-1
Netherlands 1 Feyenoord v Den Haag [1 2] o2.50 $1.62 2-1
Turkey 1 Karabukspor v Ankaragucu [2 1] o2.50 $2.10 5-1
Denmark 1 Brondby v Odense [2 2] o2.50 $1.95 2-0
Switzerland 1 St Gallen v Zurich [1 2] o2.50 $1.59 0-3
Switzerland 1 Xamax v Basel [1 2] o2.50 $1.51 1-2
England 1 Tottenham v Liverpool [2 1] o2.50 $2.00 2-1
Belgium 2 Heist KSK v Boussu Dour [2 1] o2.75 $1.90 2-0
Scotland 1 Motherwell v Hearts [1 1] o2.00 $1.68 (Postponed)
Wales 1 Neath v Prestatyn [2 1] o2.50 $1.53 (Postponed)
Portugal 2 Penafiel v Arouca [1 2] o2.00 $1.77 0-1
Cyprus 1 AEK Larnaca v Anorthosis [2 1] o2.00 $1.70 3-0
France 1 Lyon v PSG [2 1] o2.25 $1.92 2-2
France 1 Caen v Sochaux [1 1] o2.00 $1.63 0-3
Portugal 1 Beira Mar v Benfica [1 2] o2.50 $2.00 1-3
Portugal 1 Braga v Nacional [2 1] o2.00 $1.76 2-0


Picks 88-68½-10½ .562 +0.95 units
Avg Odds $1.806 = Break Even .554
Current Advantage 0.86%
Scores 51-24-92 = Confidence .437

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

29th November

Romania 1 Gaz Metan v U. Craiova [2 1] o2.00 $1.72
Switzerland 2 Lugano v Aarau [2 1] o3.00 $1.88
France 2 Tours v Le Mans [2 1] o2.25 $2.04
England 2 Leicester v Nottingham [1 1] o2.00 $1.57
Italy 2 Modena v Cittadella [1 1] o2.00 $1.85
Netherlands 2 Veendam v Apeldoorn [2 1] o2.75 $1.71
Argentina 1 Argentinos Jrs v Colon [1 1] o2.00 $1.80

[Optional]

Forgot to post these today. 2nd game is already half over, just adding for the record.

30th November

Hungary 1 Paks v Ferencvaros [1 2] o2.50 $1.68
France 1 Brest v Lens [2 1] o2.00 $2.11

[Optional]

3-4-1 -1.41 units

Romania 1 Gaz Metan v U. Craiova [2 1] o2.00 $1.72 1-0
Switzerland 2 Lugano v Aarau [2 1] o3.00 $1.88 1-0
France 2 Tours v Le Mans [2 1] o2.25 $2.04 0-1
England 2 Leicester v Nottingham [1 1] o2.00 $1.57 1-0
Italy 2 Modena v Cittadella [1 1] o2.00 $1.85 1-1
Netherlands 2 Veendam v Apeldoorn [2 1] o2.75 $1.71 (Postponed)
Argentina 1 Argentinos Jrs v Colon [1 1] o2.00 $1.80 3-0
Hungary 1 Paks v Ferencvaros [1 2] o2.50 $1.68 3-2
France 1 Brest v Lens [2 1] o2.00 $2.11 4-1


Picks 91-72½-11½ .557 -0.46 units
Avg Odds $1.807 = Break Even .553
Current Advantage 0.32%
Scores 54-26-95 = Confidence .431

Win-Loss-Push
Based on 1 unit risked per pick.
Score wins if both Team Totals >= prediction. 1 team correct = push.
Confidence = W%-L%+(P%/2)

[Optional]

1st December

France 1 Marseille v Rennes [2 1] o2.25 $1.97


2nd December

England 5 Tamworth v Newport [1 2] o2.50 $1.96

[iceman8847]

www

[Optional]

France game lost. English game postponed.

December 3rd

Hungary 1 Ferencvaros v Kecskeméti [2 1] o3.00 $1.96
Germany 2 Augsburg v Cottbus [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
Turkey 1 Trabzonspor v Bucaspor [3 0] o2.50 $1.65
France 3 Orleans v Guingamp [1 2] o2.50 $1.90
Belgium 2 Boussu Dour v FC Brussel [2 1] o2.50 $1.70
France 2 Sedan v Reims [2 0] o2.00 $1.67
France 2 Dijon v Tours [1 1] o2.00 $1.80
Netherlands 2 G.A. Eagles v Stormvogels/Telstar [2 1] o2.50 $1.65
Netherlands 2 Volendam v Eindhoven [2 1] o2.50 $1.60
Netherlands 2 Emmen v Dordrecht [2 2] o2.50 $1.57
Netherlands 2 Helmond v Veendam [1 2] o2.50 $1.66
Netherlands 2 Roosendaal v Waalwijk [1 2] o2.50 $1.59
Netherlands 2 Sparta v Apeldoorn [2 1] o2.50 $1.50
Belgium 1 Lokeren v St. Liege [2 1] o2.50 $1.92
Chile 1 A. Italiano v U. De Chile [2 1] o2.50 $1.55