blackf1re's football selections

[blackf1re]

Forgot about the France game so I'll leave it out of my spreadsheet. Still easy money for me.

Some very brief notes on two matches today:

USA v Algeria - GrC, 15.00 GMT

If it wasn't for another poor referee decision the US boys would be in an even better position. Still they have everything to play for and a win today will see them progress to the next round.

Algeria can't play as defensively as they did the first two games as they have to win to progress. And I think this going to play into the American's hands. They are the better team and I already mentioned their extraordinary fitness levels.
This can't be said about England (Graeme Souness has an interesting theory about that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSS4RWxGRWA) so this is gonna be much tougher for the Algerians today. I really wouldn't want to take a guess how England will do today but I'm confident the USA advances.

> USA @ 1.94/-106 (Betonline247)


Australia v Serbia - GrD, 19.30 GMT

Like so many people I tipped Serbia as dark horses before the WC. After they were defeated in their opener against Ghana I was preparing to say goodbye to my futures but then they surprisingly beat Germany showing their true abilities.

Australia will have to open up today and again this should favour the superior side. The men from Down Under just lack quality up front and I don't see them threatening Serbia's world class defense. The German's demonstrated how to break the Aussies and Serbia have the necessary skills to do so as well. I expect them to press their opponents back comfortably and win the tie.

> Serbia @ 1.95/-105 (Pinnacle)

[blackf1re]

My futures are looking good as well. Cashed the Uruguay/Mexico dual forecast yesterday.

Slovenia traded down to 1.04 during the USA game. Missed that unfortunately but they still have a chance so let's wait and see.

[blackf1re]

Nice profit from my Group F futures. I have one game for tonight.

Denmark v Japan - GrE, 19.30 GMT

I think the Japanese can consider themselves lucky to still be able to go through thanks to converting their only chance against Cameroon in a truly awful game between two poor sides.

Anyway all they need is a draw and it's obvious what kind of game we can expect. Denmark will have plenty of the ball and must find a way to break the Asians down. Set pieces could be key as the Danes should have a huge advantage in that area. The Japanese so far haven't shown any indications how they plan to threat the opposing defence so the moment Denmark scores this game could very well be over. The Danes are high on confidence after coming back against Cameroon and even if they don't get an early goal I'm hopeful the difference in quality will show over the 90 minutes.

> Denmark @ 2.35/+135 (BetPhoenix)

[poochiecollins]

How are you doing overall?

[blackf1re]

How are you doing overall?

Pretty good so far: http://blackf1re.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

131% ROI so far. But remember that the samplesize is more or less meaningless.

[blackf1re]

Portugal v Brazil - GrG, 15.00 GMT

Brazil ML opened ~1.90 before the WC. Now you can get 2.45. All just because Portugal put 7 past North Korea and Brazil is already through? I don't buy it. I'd say the opening odds are still about right. Brazil is a class above Portugal in every department and a match against the Portuguese is always important to them no matter the circumstances.

> Brazil @ 2.45/+145 (BetPhoenix)

[poochiecollins]

I'm assuming your spreadsheet is in decimal odds or something non-American? Is there an easy way to read it and do calculations?

[blackf1re]

Decimal odds are so much easier to understand than fractions or American odds.

I'm assuming with calculations you mean the Return on Invesment (ROI). In that case the odds format is irrelevant. The numbers in the 'Risk' and 'To win' columns are units not odds.

ROI = (Risked + Net) / Risked

[blackf1re]

Brazil v Chile - 1/8 final, 19.30 GMT

Chile have proven to be one of the most tactically-exciting and certainly one of the most entertaining sides to watch in this World Cup. Thus far the teams have been really going for it in the knockout stages and we can expect another positive approach to the game by the Chileans today.
On the other hand this will give the Brazilians a bit more space which will be welcomed by them after being frustrated by an ultra-defensive Portugal. Kaka and Elano will be back but I have a feeling this might be Luis Fabiano's day. Along with Gonzalo Higuain he is my favourite for the Golden Boot now. I won't go as far as to say he'll be having a field day but certainly he must be looking forward to this game against an attack-minded Chilean side who will be missing Marco Estrada, Waldo Ponce and Gary Medel. The Over seems the most-likely result here and while Chile are capable of scoring Brazil's firepower might just be too much for them.

Btw: The last 6 matches between these two teams ended 4-2, 3-0, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10/+110 (BetKlaas)

[blackf1re]

I've just noticed that Bodog offers >3.5 goals at a massive 4.30 (market price is 3.50-3.75). Can't pass on at will play it for 0.5pt.

> Over 3.5 goals @ 4.30/+330

[Marginalis]

Good luck today.

[blackf1re]

Spain v Portugal - 1/8 final, 19.30 GMT

Busy day ahead of me so just a few words: Ever since the Confed Cup I have maintained that Spain are not among the top favourites to win the WC. There are other teams suited much better to the conditions and there's value in opposing them today. I have taken Portugal with the minimum handicap start and I expect a game similar to their encounter with Brazil but with a bit more incentive to score a goal.

> Portugal +0.25 @ 2.23/+123 (5dimes)

[blackf1re]

2010 FIFA World Cup

Winner's market

> Uruguay @ 130 / +12900; trade depends on whether they play Argentina in the next round | 1pt

Traded out @12. +9.83pt profit

[Tommy_de1st]

using betfair as i see

[blackf1re]

The Netherlands v Spain - World Cup Final

If you want to know why a Spain win is more likely than current odds might suggest please rewatch tonight's game. Or read Kara's posts. I agree with everything he said and couldn't word it any better. With players like Robben not doing much defensively the Dutch run the risk of being overrun in midfield and that may end ugly for them.

I tipped Brazil as winners before the tournament (still angry that they basically beat themselves) as I had some doubts not over Spain's quality but their form and fitness. After watching their knockout games these doubts are gone now and while a Brazil v Spain final would have been fantastic the matchup we ended up with at least makes the betting easier.

The Spaniards are huge favourites for me and I have placed my bets early as this price is very likely to shorten. It is a maximum bet (2pt) for me as well. Enjoy the game!

> Spain @ 2.21/+121 (188bet)

[Karayilan9]

The Netherlands v Spain - World Cup Final

If you want to know why a Spain win is more likely than current odds might suggest please rewatch tonight's game. Or read Kara's posts. I agree with everything he said and couldn't word it any better. With players like Robben not doing much defensively the Dutch run the risk of being overrun in midfield and that may end ugly for them.

I tipped Brazil as winners before the tournament (still angry that they basically beat themselves) as I had some doubts not over Spain's quality but their form and fitness. After watching their knockout games these doubts are gone now and while a Brazil v Spain final would have been fantastic the matchup we ended up with at least makes the betting easier.

The Spaniards are huge favourites for me and I have placed my bets early as this price is very likely to shorten. It is a maximum bet (2pt) for me as well. Enjoy the game!

> Spain @ 2.21/+121 (188bet)

Like it alot

Good to see some traders on the forum aswell!

[blackf1re]

Brentford v Fulham - Friendly, 20.00 GMT

There's a 2 league gap between these two sides but I think there's more to this fixture. This is a testimonial match for Brentford captain Kevin O'Connor for being 10 years at the club. If that wasn't enough reason to celebrate tonight's opponent is Brentford's biggest rival Fulham. I'm sure the Bees and their supporters will be well up for this game.
It's the first pre-season match for both teams as far as I know but Fulham are still without a manager at the moment and I have to question how seriously they will take this game.

> Brentford +1 @ 1.95/-105 (SBOBET)


Update: SBO have adjusted their odds 3 times in 3 minutes and the same play is now available @ 1.74. So I wouldn't recommend it anymore.

[TT22]

Brentford v Fulham - Friendly, 20.00 GMT

There's a 2 league gap between these two sides but I think there's more to this fixture. This is a testimonial match for Brentford captain Kevin O'Connor for being 10 years at the club. If that wasn't enough reason to celebrate tonight's opponent is Brentford's biggest rival Fulham. I'm sure the Bees and their supporters will be well up for this game.
It's the first pre-season match for both teams as far as I know but Fulham are still without a manager at the moment and I have to question how seriously they will take this game.

> Brentford +1 @ 1.95/-105 (SBOBET)


Update: SBO have adjusted their odds 3 times in 3 minutes and the same play is now available @ 1.74. So I wouldn't recommend it anymore.

This line is down huge. Looks like you got the best of it.

I'll pass.

[blackf1re]

Back for the new season.

Hannover 96 v Eintracht Frankfurt - GER1, 21/08, 14.30 GMT

Somewhat unusually quiet pre-season for Frankfurt. For once they were in the papers for all the right reasons. They only lost one of their 9 pre-season games (against Udinese) while winning the other 8 against European opposition such as Santander, Palermo and even Chelsea. Reports have been very good and Michael Skibbe's side is eager to start their campaign against an (already) tumbling Hannover team.

Most notable signing is Theofanis Gekas whom I expect to do business and help them to improve on their 10th place finish last year. I really think they are capable of doing that while their fans' biggest dream (enter the stages of European football again) might be a task to tough to handle (yet).

For the second year in a row Hannover crashed out of the German FA CUP losing to a 4th division side. This surely has fueled the tensions within the club that were already evident at the end of last season. Coach Mirko Slomka and manager Jörg Schmadtke reportedly don't get along and don't shy away from using the media to state their opinions. After losing the cup game Slomka demanded new players for the new season which didn't sit well with Hannover's president who then publically critisized his coach for his comments.

There have been some players brought in (the 'biggest' name being Pogatetz from Middlesbrough) but considering that they have lost their team captain to Leverkusen Hannover's squad is no better than last year where they really struggled to stay up.

Hosts are in disarray and in for another tough season. I have to go with the visitors here as I do not see them losing. Draw will return our stakes.

> Frankfurt 0 @ 2.00/+100 (BetUS)

[blackf1re]

Hertha BSC v Rot-Weiß Oberhausen - GER2, 20/08, 17.00 GMT

For the first time in over a decade the top flight of German football is without a club from the country's capital and for the first time ever since reunification without a club from the (geographical) East. To blame is Berlin's 'old lady' Hertha who somehow managed to get relegated with a squad that at the very least should have finished in the top half of the table.

Obviously there has been some fluctuation in the squad but there hasn't been a complete sellout and the club has brought in some players that will definitely help them. Most notably Christian Lell (Bayern), Rob Friend (Gladbach) and Peter Niemeyer (Bremen).
With the collective squad having over 1000 caps in the Bundesliga between them Hertha are huge favourites for promotion with the bookies and rightly so.

Still new coach and former Bayern Munich and Liverpool player Markus Babbel had to admit that it's gonna take some time for the new team to 'click'. Players haven't got used to his 4-2-3-1 system yet and failed to impress in pre-season. They particularly struggled to deliver good balls for central striker Friend. This problem even got bigger now that important playmaker Raffael has been ruled out for Friday's opener against Oberhausen. He's not the only one who will be sidelined, though, as the Berliners have a bit of an injury crisis right now.

The visitors in some ways are the complete opposite to Hertha. In an area where the competition from other big name clubs is huge they have one of the smallest budgest in the league and their main goal will be to avoid relagation for a third time which would be a massive achievement. They will stick to defense which might not be the worst of ideas considering they lack a prolific striker and even failed to score against 5th league side Victoria Hamburg at the weekend. This will not help Hertha's cause and the 40.000 to be expected in attendance should be prepared for a tenacious match. Unders for me.

> Under 2.75 goals @ 1.82/-122 (188Bet)

[blackf1re]

Sturm Graz v Juventus - EUROPA LEAGUE, 20.05 GMT

Hosts know to keep things tight defensively, conceding only 36 times last season in a very high scoring league. Also both their games against Dinamo Tblisi went under 2.5 goals. The same can be said about Juve's encounter with Shamrock Rovers. The start of the Italian league is still 10 days away and we might not see the best of Juventus just yet. I suspect new coach Luigi Delneri will take a cautious approach, focusing on avoding defeat. Especially after having seen the Spurs game.

> Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83/-120 (5dimes)

[blackf1re]

Everton v Wolverhampton - ENG1, 21/08, 15.00 GMT

Interesting fixture at Goodison Park coming up with odds not quite right in my opinion. Wolves didn't embarrass themselves in their first EPL season last year and only suffered heavy defeats against the top teams and Sunderland at the beginning of the season. Apart from that they mostly kept things tight and subsequently stayed up rather comfortably.

That year has been very valueable to them and manager Mick McCarthy was keen to point out this week how much better his side has gotten through the experience of playing in the Premier League. They started their campaign with a convincing win over Midlands rivals Stoke. Quite an intense match as you would expect which Wolves controlled and created the better chances in (especially new midfielder Jelle van Damme looked very lively). Confidence is high at the moment and they won't travel to Liverpool to just deliver the points.

Everton are tradionally slow starters (lost five of their last seven curtain-raisers) and this year's no different. Despite having all players on board this time (they were plagued by injuries in 09/10) they never looked like threatening a very solid Blackburn defence at the weekend. With the same kind of slow and lacklustre passing and attacking they will definitely struggle against this well-organized Wolverhampton team.
Both fixtures ended in draws last year - even at the height of their form at the end of the season the Toffees couldn't break down their opponents.

Pretty sure Everton will have a lot to do to book their first win of the season which will make it very difficult for them to cover this handicap.

> Wolves +1.25 @ 1.88/-114 (12bet)

[blackf1re]

Stevenage v Stockport - ENG4, 21/08, 15.00 GMT

Stockport are coming off an absolutely horrible year, losing 31 of 46 starts, conceding 95 times and getting relegated from League One with just 25 points. And despite drawing the first two games of this season there's no light at the end of the tunnel for the Hatters. The financial situation is catastrophic and there was no money to bring in any reenforcements in the summer while some of the better players and talents had to be sold. While their entertaining 0-0 draw with Wycome gave them some encouragement it's hard to see where they can go from here given the mess they are in.


Blue Square Premier Champions Stevenage are in a much better position and were expected to at least make a top-half finish and possibly one of the playoff spots before the season. They're without a win yet but were very unfortunate to not get anything from their match with Bradford City at the weekend. Enjoying the bulk of the possession they outshot the hosts who defended desperately 17-3 and still lost in the end to a penalty. Even the home fans inside Valley Parade knew that they have been very lucky and surprisingly booed their own team after just winning the game!


Nevertheless 'the Boro' (still Stevenage's nickname despite dropping 'Borough' from their name) can take a lot from that game. Manager Graham Westley stated that this team are not far from the level they need to get to. With that kind of firepower he surely must fancy play this Stockport side which conceded 5 goals or more regularly last season.

> Stevenage -0.5 @ 1.83/-120 (SBOBET)

[blackf1re]

One more for tonight:

Dynamo Dresden v 1.FC Saarbrücken - GER3, 18.00 GMT

Odds movement is a litte hard to comprehend here. Actually wasn't going to preview this match as I thought the opening line was about right. But hosts have been drifting all day and I think there's a lot of value now. I guess this is an overreaction to Saarbrücken's 7-0 thrashing of Jena.

Surely a very impressive but also a freak result. Jena literally collapsed and stopped playing after two early goals and I wouldn't read too much into that. The visitors first three results (three defeats, no goal scored) might give us a better idea of what their standing in this league is.

Dynamo has made two terrific signings during the international break. New striker Alexander Esswein from Wolfsburg and Cristian Fièl from Bundesliga 2 club Aachen. The latter is way too good for the 3rd tier of German football and everybody was a bit surprised that he was a) released by his old club and b) actually stepped down a league. While doubts over match fitness remain I'm confident his excellent passing skills can make an immediate impact.

Since exiting the Bundesliga in 1995 the club has constantly been in chaos. Expectations are always high, money never available and club management rarely capable. Thankfully due to being the only big club in the region and having a huge fanbase sponsors are willing to finance new players. Furthermore former Leverkusen manager Reiner Calmund (who is a really big personality in Germany - literally!) is now advising the club and has helped to at least make the club's public image look a bit more professional. Promotion is not on the agenda for this young and talented squad but things are looking a little brighter now than they did a few months ago.

While tradionally struggling on the road the Saxons are somewhat of a force at home where they again expect 20,000 fanatic supporters. Both new signings will start the game and I'm sure the hosts will give newly promoted Saarbrücken a lot to think about. Can't see past a home win.

> Dresden -0.5 @ 2.17/+117 (12bet)

[orlandito]

i agree thanks

[blackf1re]

Sheriff Tiraspol v FC Basel - CHAMPIONS LEAGUE, 24/08, 19.45 GMT

This is going to be a very tough trip to Moldova for Basel. It's not easy to play in a country you haven't played before for the first time probably not knowing too much about the opposition. They are somewhat fragile defensively and conceded 28 goals in 18 away matches last season. This season has started similarly and I don't see them keeping a clean sheet on Tuesday.

Tiraspol have won their domestic league for the last ten years which has given them some experience at the European level constantly improving with each year. And while perfoming well in last year's Europa League it's the 'big one' they're aiming for this time. They lost the first leg 0-1 in a game they purely concentrated on defending. Maybe not the greatest of away results but knowing how strong they are at home (16-1-0, 46-2 goals last season) it's still a very open affair. Their last two league games ended in draws clearing having the CL game in mind. They even rested their complete starting eleven at the weekend.

I snapped up hosts off level ball and expect odds to shorten over the coming days.

> Sheriff 0 @ 1.93/-108 (Pinnacle)

[blackf1re]

http://plusevbetting.blogspot.com/

My new blog. Not sure what I'm gonna do with it in the future but I always wanted to have one!


Peterborough v Cardiff - CARLING CUP, 24/08, 19.45 GMT

Peterborough bounced back with a 4-2 win over Huddersfield at the weekend after losing 1-5 on matchday two. These two results alone tell us a little bit what they've been about so far this season. And infact they've created more chance than anyone else so far in League One.

Cardiff started their respective campaign brightly. The 4-0 destruction of Doncaster saw Craig Bellamy making his debut for city. And an impressive one it was. He set up two goals and then went on to score one himself from 35 yards. And while you have to admire his decision so step down a league it's clear that he's just way too good for the Championship. At the moment I cannot tell you whether he'll play. But I would think so as fellow striker Michael Chopra is injured and Bellamy needs to step up his match fitness. But even without him there's a lot of firepower in this Cardiff side.

Both sides are creating and scoring a lot and gained a lot of confidence by their latest results (Boro actually went 0-2 down in the first half). I don't see them holding back tomorrow and this fixture should produce some goals.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 1.87/-115 (SBOBET)

[blackf1re]

Bradford v Preston North End - CARLING CUP, 24/08, 19.45 GMT

Lots to choose from in tomorrow's second round of the English carling cup. One match that interests me particularly is Bradford (League Two) hosting Preston (Championship).

Bradford were tipped as one of the favourites for promotion before the start of the season. Experienced manager Peter Taylor is considered to be one of the best in the league and made some great dealings in the transfer market to strengthen the squad.
However, they lost at Torquay and Shrewsbury and were very lucky to beat Stevenage. The performances of the team have left everybody at the club scratching their heads. Taylor even described what at he saw at the weekend as 'unprofessional'. There were issues in every part of the pitch. Team morale is quite low at the moment and getting booed by your own fans after winning at home (see earlier post) certainly doesn't help.

Preston started the new season with two losses but will arrive at Valley Parade in a much more positive frame of mind after beating Portsmouth 1-0. Manager Darren Ferguson hailed his men's display as 'excellent'. PNE found an early goal and played with confidence throughout the game and created a lot of chances. While the return of injured centrehalf Sean St. Ledger was a massive bonus, the Man of the Match award went to Manchester United loanee Joshua King who posed a constant threat to Pompey with his pace and strength. Having your father managing one of the biggest club in the world certainly comes in handy at times!

Two leagues between the two teams and quite a gap in confidence and recent performances. The visitors have to be my pick here.

> Preston -0.25 @ 1.95/-105 (Bet 365)

[Blue_Chips]

Good luck on these! I'll be back to check on the lines later.

[blackf1re]

Stockport v Shrewsbury - ENG4, 28/08, 15.00 GMT

I already talked about Stockport in one of my previous posts. All of it still is true and there were no real signs of improvement at Broadhall Way last weekend. Looks as though the suffering for the Stockport fans will continue. The club management is desperately trying to get some new players in before the transfer window closes. With the players they have there are heading for a second consecutive relegation.

The Hatters host unbeaten Shrewsbury on Saturday. The and experienced coach Graham Turner used it wisely. The first three matches have seen the Shrews playing some very nice football and the team should definitely be good enough to push for a playoff spot. They have pace, flair and confidence which is basically everything Stockport lack.

Huge disparity between the two sides and three points are up for grabs here for the away team.

> Shrewsbury -0.25 @ 2.06/+106 (188bet)

[Blue_Chips]

[blackf1re]

Hereford v Rotherham - ENG4, 28/08, 15.00 GMT

The best news for beaten playoff finalists Rotherham was that the club was able to hold on to striker Adam Le Fondre which is terrific and unusual for a League Two side which is used to selling their best players every year. Le Fondre alone is reason enough to consider The Millers one of the leading candidates for promotion. He scored 25 last season and already leads the scorer table again adding 4 in last weekend's 6-4 thriller against Cheltenham. Coach Ronnie Moore praised his performance as 'best I've ever seen from him'. Needless to say that he is delighted with the 7 points his team has after three games.

Hereford so far haven't found it quite as easy to score. Despite creating a few good chances their only goal came from a defender. To make things worse key strikers Matthieu Manset and Sam Malsom are both injured which forced boss Simon Davey to take two unnamed strikers on trial. Hard to see where the goals will come from. While the Bulls at least could rely on their defense to get consecutive clean sheets in their two opening games things fell apart at Chesterfield (0-4 loss) last weekend and now might not be the best of times to face the league's best striker.

Visitors are 'on fire' and I'd be surprised to see them lose.

> Rotherham 0 @ 2.03/+103 (SBOBET)