blackf1re's football selections

Sforz · 04-23-10, 07:13 AM

Good luck bro, nice write up.

blackf1re · 04-23-10, 07:57 AM

Thanks a lot

Carl Zeiss Jena v 1.FC Heidenheim - GER3, 13.00 GMT

The home team is really overpriced here. On paper it's 5th versus 6th but the reality is different. For a long time Heidenheim looked like contenders for a spot in the 2nd Bundesliga. But it's their first year in the 3rd division and a long season has taken its toll. They haven't won a game in six and conceded 13 goals over that span. They can be proud of what they've achieved so far and will be looking forward to ending this season and going on holiday.

Jena only drew with Bayern Munich reserves in midweek but are still very much in the driving seat for promotion. The highlight of their fine displays in 2010 came last weekend when they celebrated a 3-0 away win over Dynamo Dresden in front of 30,000 supporters. I was at that game and was very impressed with the way they played. They struggled a bit in the first half as the hosts came out firing having won 8 home games in a row prior to that match. That changed in the 2nd half and the visitors played like you expect a top side looking to get promoted to play. The scoreline might have been a bit harsh on Dynamo but I can't deny that Jena were in total control of the game and scored 3 beautifully created goals.

The visitors haven't really anything left to play for but Jena HAVE to win this game and I fully expect them to do so.

To be honest you could even go for a higher handicap. 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 are realistic score lines. Personally I've chosen -0.75 as this is a bet I'm very confident about.

> Jena -0.75 @ 2.07/+107 (Pinnacle)

blackf1re · 04-23-10, 08:14 AM

Werder Bremen v 1.FC Köln (Cologne) - GER1, 14.30 GMT

Is he insane you might ask. Of course Bremen are clear favourites here and I wouldn't be surprised if they put 5 past Cologne. Still the odds don't seem right to me.

Cologne are playing better on the road than at home. They have already beaten Wolfsburg, Stuttgart and Hoffenheim away this season playing some decent football (something they really struggle with in front of their own supporters). They have also won their last two away games. Bremen on the other hand usually produce fireworks. Scoring a lot and conceding a lot for a team that aims to play CL. They are also prone to the occasional shock defeat at home.

Obviously this is a high risk bet and small stakes are advised. But the away odds are way too good to pass. Cologne should be priced around 7.00-9.00.

> Cologne @ 12.25/+1125 (Pinnacle)

Note: I usually bet at level stakes (i.e 1pt) unless stated otherwise. As this bet is high variance my stake would be smaller here. Like 0.2pt.

blackf1re · 04-23-10, 02:40 PM

FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt - GER1, 14.30 GMT

This is a local derby and both set of players will be well up for it. Both clubs have enjoyed successful seasons and are looking forward to what will be the highlight of their remaining games.
The fact that they're separated by just one point promises to add some extra spice to the fixture. So although there's nothing left to play for in terms of fighting relegation or challenging for European football there's still something at stake for Mainz and Frankfurt and their supporters.

There's no reason for tactical battles at this stage. Both sides are free from any sort of pressure and I expect them to come out firing and go for the win. We should definitely see some goals here. Overs for me.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 2.05/+105 (Stan James) WIN

blackf1re · 04-24-10, 09:43 AM

2 out of 3 bets have won (Mainz v Frankfurt is 2-2 after only 55min) so a decent profit has been made. Really disappointed with Jena though. This was supposed to be my strongest selection. Oh well...

menang8 · 04-24-10, 10:42 AM

It's Over!

blackf1re · 04-25-10, 03:30 PM

Fulham FC v Hamburger SV - EUROPA LEAGUE, 29/04, 20.05 GMT

I am quite keen on Fulham to make the Europa League final which would be a remarkable achievement for such a small club.

Hamburg are in turmoil at the moment and this weekend saw them squander their chance at European football next season which is a MASSIVE blow for them. Qualifying for the Europa League was their minimum goal. If that wasn't enough they got dismantled by a Hoffenheim side who were equally short of confidence. The visitors were shockingly bad and could have lost by more.

As I write these lines manager Bruno Labbadia is still in charge and I don't know if the club is brave enough to change managers before such a crucial game. Either way you couldn't ask for a worse preparation for Thursday's clash. I didn't understand his appointment to begin with. He started off promisingly with Leverkusen in 08/09 until things fell apart at the end of the season. There were reports of tensions between players and manager. The same thing has now happened at Hamburg. Not a day without something to read in the papers. It's evident to everybody that the coach has lost his player.

The first leg in Germany was a borefest which suited the Cottagers who put in a superb defensive display. Hamburg themselves looked like their main goal was to keep a clean sheet and didn't really create or force anything. Their only opportunities came from long-distance efforts. Disappointing considering they played at home and have 'Van the Man' upfront. Self-believe was clearly missing from a side that for weeks now hasn't looked like the have a game plan.

Fulham on the other hand have put all their efforts into the Europa League and won't be disappointed that they couldn't repeat last season's 7th place finish in the EPL as they are up against much bigger teams with much more money to spend. They have rested almost their entire squad against Everton and are hoping for another glorious European night at Craven Cottage (remember the 4-1 against Juve overcoming a 1-3 deficit). Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar scoreline tbh. I myself would fancy my chances against that Hamburg backline

Considering the circumstances 2.25 looks really generous. I have taken that bet very early as I can see the price shortening.

> Fulham @ 2.25/+125 (Stan James)...2.20 available across the board

blackf1re · 04-26-10, 02:30 PM

Olympique Lyon v Bayern Munich - CHAMPIONS LEAGUE, 27/04, 19.45 GMT

The first leg at the Allianz Arena saw the hosts very much in control of the match. Lyon were playing it safe hoping to hit them on the counter. But the Frenchmen (especially their wingers) played so deep that they couldn't cause Bayern any problems. Their two central midfielders Schweinsteiger and Pranjic had excellent matches and handled everything comfortably. Even when Ribery was sent off the game didn't really change as Bayern switched to 4-4-1 and the visitors remained in their shape. Lyon were obviously content with a 0-0 scoreline. I was surprised to see that even after Bayern scored Lyon were in no hurry whatsoever. If you watched the match without seeing the scoreline you would've thought they were the ones leading. They must be really confident for their home leg as 0-1 really is a bad result (away goal rule!) Anyway that leaves only one option for tomorrow's clash - they have to attack.

Looking at Bayern's previous away games in the knockout stages they lost 2-3 against Fiorentina and 2-3 to ManUtd. They could have easily gone out twice but Arjen Robben bailed them out with a wonder strike each time. But these scorelines have to encourage Lyon. And there's more. Bayern have big injury problems and had only 14 players (incl 2 goal keepers) available for their final training. They will most likely field a makeshift back four. If Demichelis and van Buyten can't play (which is very likely atm) their defense could look something like this: Alaba - Contento - Badstuber - Lahm.
Contento is 19 years old and has featured in 7 Bundesliga games. Alaba is 17 and has only 3 caps so far. Badstuber is only 20 himself and whilst having a very good first season in the first team could have easily cost them the match at Old Trafford. If van Gaal is not willing to risk that he might pull a more experienced defensive midfielder back. Either way Lyon must fancy their chances.
One thing's for sure: The Bavarian's won't play for a 0-0. Injury problems aside it's just not their way to play. Van Gaal has said that his team 'can always score a goal'. And who want's to argue with him when he has Robben?

It's pretty clear to me that both sides will attack cause it's what they have to do. I would NOT be surprised at all to see Bayern go through on away gaols again. And I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of goals.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02/+102 (Pinnacle, SBOBET & others)

blackf1re · 04-27-10, 03:39 AM

Erzgebirge Aue v SV Wehen Wiesbaden - GER3, 17.30 GMT

I'm gonna keep this short. Aue lead the league table and are literally flying at the moment. A win today will see them clinch promotion. They have won their last 5 games and are an absolute force at home (14-2-1). This should be one big party in front of a full crowd. The visitors are one class below their opponents and I have to question their motivation for a tuesday evening away game with nothing left to play for.

> Aue -1.25 @ 2.06/+106 (188bet)

blackf1re · 04-29-10, 09:11 AM

Stoke City v Everton FC - ENG1, 01/05, 15.00 GMT

While Everton's European chances are remote the Toffees will surely make one final push for 7th place as they're freerolling and have nothing to lose. Local rivals Liverpool face a very tough match against Chelsea at Anfield so there's a real chance to reduce the gap to two points. In case Liverpool lose at home surely no Everton player would want to hear that he didn't give it all to take advantage of that. Unbeaten in 9 David Moyes' man remain in very good form in 2010 and can take further encouragement from Stoke's recent defensive display.

The Potters on the other hand enjoyed another successful year in the EPL but surely will want to make up for their abysmal performance at Stamford Bridge last weekend. Yes, Chelsea were fantastic but manager Tony Pulis made his thoughts on the effort his team put in very clear. It's the last fixture at the Britannia this season and the loyal home crowd will expect a reaction from the players.

These kind of games at the end of the season tend to be open affairs as it is. In addition we have two sides that will be really motivated and going for the win. Therefore I see some real value in the overs bet.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 2.04/+104 (Pinnacle)

blackf1re · 04-29-10, 09:36 AM

Sunderland v Manchester United - ENG1, 02/05, 16.00 GMT

I expect this game to be a lot tougher for ManUnited than some people might think. The defending champions are priced around 1.35-1.40 which doesn't reflect the reality very well. I have read suggestions that Sunderland with Steve Bruce (a former United player) might just bend over and won't be interested in the tie. This is just complete rubbish. Playing United is always some kind of cup final for a lot of players and they will 100% be up for it. Especially as it's the end of the season and there's nothing else left to play for. Take Darren Bent for example. Despite scoring an impressive 24 goals this season (only Drogba, 25 and Rooney, 26 have more) it's far from certain that he will go to WC. What better opportunity can he ask for to show Fabio Capello that he should be taken ahead of someone like Emile Heskey (3 goals btw) than to score against the title holders? Obviously the Golden Boot is an extra incentive.

The Black Cats are very tough to break down at home and have lost only twice all season on their home soil beating the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham. Therefore the away odds seem way to short. Manchester United might win in the end because of their superior quality but it's gonna take a real effort and I feel this is gonna be a really tight game with a possible 0-1, 1-1 or 0-0 scoreline. I feel confident taking Sunderland with the head start here.

> Sunderland +1.25 @ 2.07/+107 (Betinternet)

blackf1re · 04-30-10, 05:11 AM

Hansa Rostock v Energie Cottbus - GER2, 02/05, 16.30 GMT

This so-called 'Ost-Derby' is very important for both east German clubs and their supporters. The respective seasons have been full of disappointments and has seen them fight relegation for the most part. But the most recent games should have lifted their spirits.

Rostock surprisingly spoilt the party for already promoted league leaders Kaiserslautern last week. As a result of that the club has secured 16th place which would mean they'd have to play the 3rd placed team from Division 3 to avoid relegation. But they can have it much easier by overtaking FSV Frankfurt whom they trail by one point. You can see why sunday's game is so massive for them.

Cottbus will stay at least one more year in the second flight of German football thanks to a convincing 4-2 victory over Union Berlin last monday. They have finally hit some form at the end of the season and have scored four times in three of their last five games. They also concede a lot due to their attacking approach.

This game is remarkably similar to said Ost-Derby between Energie and Union and I expect both teams to attack from the kick-off to secure three points.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 1.94/-108 (BetPhoenix)

Tommy_de1st · 04-30-10, 06:52 AM

I must admit I love your write-ups man

keep em coming

United are playing their game after Chelsea match and the score vs Sunderland depends on Liv/Che game. I still dont understand why those games are not at the same time. I know there are TV contracts involved but still ...

blackf1re · 04-30-10, 07:32 AM

Thanks man. Been a good start so far (results can be checked in my spreadsheet btw).

Yeah it's weird that the two games are at the same time. I've been thinking about how the Pool v Chelsea tie might influence the United game and if I should bet at all. But in the end United HAVE to win their game regardless of the result at Anfield. And Sunderland's determination won't be affected anyway.

Tommy_de1st · 04-30-10, 09:58 AM

After what I saw last night (meaning Liverpool playing) Chelsea will win this 1

blackf1re · 05-12-10, 08:18 AM

Atletico Madrid v Fulham FC - EUROPA LEAGUE, 19.45 GMT

Don't feel like writing a lot on tonight's final, just think that the Cottagers are overpriced here. They have been offered at odds against throughout their European campaign only to emerge as winners every single time. Of course they can't compete with the likes of Agüero, Forlan or Simão but they have shown how to overcome these deficits by team performance and sheer determination. And the difference in quality isn't as big as the odds might suggest.
Atleticos away form is dire to say the least and I think the venue suits Fulham better (they've even played in Hamburg a couple of weeks ago and kept a clean sheet). Finally Roy Hodgson is the better and far more experienced manager which for me is a very big factor in an European final. I'm sure he will have a good plan on how to stop Atletico.

I don't want to take Fulham on the money line, though as this could easily finish as a draw. If neither team is winning after say 75 minutes it's likely that both sides won't be willing to take any risks before extra time. The Spaniards have to be at their very best if they want to win the inaugural Europa league so Fulham off level ball have to be my shout.

> Fulham 0 @ 2.81/+181 (12Bet)

blackf1re · 05-14-10, 01:22 PM

Arles v Clemont - FRA2, 19.30 GMT

Last match day in the French second division Ligue 2 tonight. Caen and Brest already have secured their promotion which leaves one spot up for grabs with four teams battling for that spot. Arles (currently 3rd) are in the driving seat and only need to win at home. But they host 5th places Clermont who themselves have remote chances for promotion to Ligue 1. It's a longshot even if they get the away win as they have to rely on Vannes to get something in Metz (4th). But they are freeroling and have nothing left to lose and surely no reason to sit back here.
The formula for Arles tonight is simple: win = promotion. In front of their own supporters motivation can't be higher for the players and they won't have any reason to sit back either. A draw would be devastating for both as Metz would overtake them with a win. When both teams come to play and attack chances are that we'll see some goals.

> Over 2.5 goals @ 2.09/+109 (Pinnacle)

blackf1re · 06-10-10, 05:54 AM

2010 FIFA World Cup

Back for the 'big one'. I plan on previewing many games in the usual manner but before of all I'd like to share my WC futures with you. All the betting has been done on Betfair and I shall be looking for trading opportunities over the course of the tournament. At least in Winner's and Golden Boot market.

So here we go:

Winner's market

> Serbia @ 70 / +6900; looking to trade after reaching the 1/4 finals | 2pt
> Denmark @ 230 / +22900; odds are way too high; I rate the Danes and the draw has been kind to them, either trading in the next round or in the 1/4 finals | 2pt
> Uruguay @ 130 / +12900; trade depends on whether they play Argentina in the next round | 1pt

Golden Boot market

> van Persie @ 13.5 / +1250 | 1pt
> Nilmar @ 95 / +9400 | 0.5pt
> Agüero @ 120 / +11900 | 0.5pt

Group A

> Uruguay to advance @ 2.12 / +112 | 1pt
> Dual forecast: Mexico/Uruguay @ 7.2 / +620 | 0.5 pt

Group C

> Slovenia to advance @ 2.92 / +192 | 1pt

Group D

> Serbia to win the group @4.1 / +310 | 1pt

Group E

> Dual forecast: Denmark/Netherlands @2.74 / +174 | 1.5pt

Group F

> Lay Italy to qualify @ 1.16 / -625 | 0.5pt liability
> Dual forecast: Paraguay/Slovakia @ 13 / +1200 | 0.5pt

Group G

> Brazil to win the group @ 1.59 / -170 | 2pt

Group H

> Chile to qualify @ 1.77 / -130 | 1.5pt

blackf1re · 06-11-10, 05:04 AM

Uruguay v France - GrA, 19.30 GMT

Uruguay are a team I am very keen on as you can see in my post above. France on the other hand is the complete opposite. One of their main problems is - you guessed it - their coach. Raymond Domenech remains unpopular with the fans, the media and - if rumours are to be believed - the players. France were dire throughout their qualification campaign and didn't show much improvement in their three friendlies before tonight's game. They elected to play relatively weak sides (2-1 over Costa Rica, 1-1 v Tunisia and a 0-1 loss to China) and will have to step up their game against Uruguay tonight. Due to Lassana Diarra's injury Domenech changed the system to a 4-3-3 formation with Malouda, Toulalan and Gourcuff in the middle. These are three excellent players who can pose a thread to most teams. Infact France showed some promising attacking play in the game against Costa Rica. Against tougher teams they could really struggle with Toulalan as the sole holding midfielder. Malouda isn't entirely comfortable in the middle and prefers to constantly drift wide. Furthermore his and Gourcuff's weaknesses in defense could very well be exposed tonight. It will be interesting to see how this formation can handle Uruguay's unusual 3-5-2 formation with 5 in midfield plus Forlan who plays as a deep dropping forward. Another problem that has been discussed on various sites is the lone striker role in this new system. Anelka seem to be the choice but it's obvious that he's not perfectly suited for that. He has played that part (successfully) for Chelsea, but at the tip of 4-3-2-1 with two players in narrow roles behind him. In the national team he plays well ahead of the midfielders and his natural inclination to drop deep in search of the ball could be problematic as he only gets in their way.

Uruguay field two of the most in-form and confident strikers in the world right now. A team low on confidence such as France will certainly not cherish the thought of playing against Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. I mentioned their 3-5-2 system which you rarely see in Europe these days. But it has proven to work for them. They have the right players and everyone knows their role. Certainly an invaluable advantage over their opponent. Obviously their defense isn't on the same level as the impressive strike force and an in-form France with players like Ribery and Malouda would fancy their chances. But with that many things going against France at the moment the South Americans might be able to gain control in the midfield forcing Gourcuff and Malouda into defensive duties which will be key.

All things considered I expect a hard-fought and possibly low-scoring affair. But Uruguay edges it for me and I have to take them with the minimum handicap start.

> Uruguay +0.25 @ 2.08/+108 (188bet)

blackf1re · 06-11-10, 03:50 PM

Pretty much what I expected from that game. Too bad Forlan didn't take his chance.

I have already taken Mexico @4.00 over France some time ago. Odds have dropped since then and I expect them to shorten further after today. Let's see how much value will be left in a few days and if I make it a play in this thread.

More tomorrow. England are way too short in my opinion so I might have something for that game.

blackf1re · 06-12-10, 05:03 AM

Argentina v Nigeria - GrB, 15.00 GMT

You can't really be sure about Argentina because of Maradona who most definitely is insane. But whatever problems he brings with him and tactical deficiencies he may have won't be a problem today just yet I believe. Today they're facing a relatively weak Nigerian side which is in turmoil. After a poor African Cup of Nations coach Shaibu Amodu got fired for the 4th(!) time and Swedish coach Lars Lagerbäck was brought in as a replacement. Surely changing the manager just before the WC is not the best perparation for the tournament - but what's new about African teams. Obviously European managers are appointed to bring some discipline to the team. Something African sides notoriously lack. And I have still massive doubts. Lagerbäck has blasted his team after very poor displays in their friendly matches and apperantly has been less than complimentary in private about the Super Eagles. To make things worse he will have to cope without Chelsea's John Obi Mikel, one of Nigeria's most recognizable players.
Tactically we will probably see a 4-3-3. They certainly have some talented and dangerous players upfront (Yakubu, Obinna) but the problem I see lies in the midfield area. Fulham's Etuhu will have to do Mikel's job but it's the two unexperienced and probably unknown-to-most players around him who should worry Lagerback. If the Argies are up for it they might just overrun Nigeria's midfield.

All the 3 other teams in Group B are superior to Nigeria in my opinion so I expect them to finish 4th.

What's to say about Argentina what has been said. Everybody knows that Maradona has called up a ridiculous number of players since he's in charge and left out Champions League winners Javier Zanetti and Esteban Cambiasso which nobody quite understands. But even without them their squad is most impressive. Especially the strike force. Any team that can field the likes of Messi, Milito, Higuain, Tevez or Di Maria should be regarded as one of the favourites. Potential weaknesses can be found in the defensive department, however. Demichelis has been at this best for 2-3 years, Heinze shouldn't really be in the team and 35 year old Veron could face some serious problems against stronger side. But as I said Nigeria don't fall into that category. And apparently Diego's starting 11 of choice seems to be working. An impressive 1-0 away win over Germany deserves to be mentioned here. That game showed also how tactically sound they can play - something a lot of people probably didn't expect from a Maradona side. Who knows how far his Mourinho-esque 'us vs them' mentality will get them.
Surely they want to get a convincing win before facing game-destroying Greeks and the ever-running Koreans. They're full of confidence and especially the strikes will be keen to impress because of the tough competition within the team. That might prove to be too much for a disorganzied Nigerian side.

I think this game will be a sharp contrast to yesterday's opening matches. First of all the gap in quality is much much bigger and I believe there's a good chance Argentina will run riot today and put a few goals past the Super Eagles. The markets seem to have doubts over Maradona's Argentina who are priced in the same region as England against the USA. But I expect two totally different matches. I feel confident about the Albiceleste today and have taken them giving up a big handicap at tempting odds.

> Argentina -1.5 @ 2.30/+130 (Paddy Power)

Tommy_de1st · 06-12-10, 07:33 AM

GL
Im on Argies as well

blackf1re · 06-12-10, 11:37 AM

What a frustrating match...

Here's my selection for tonight's game:

England v USA - GrC, 19.30 GMT

I feel this will be a much closer match then the odds might suggest. The game will be played at 1500m above sea level which certainly is something you have to get used to and be prepared for. Fitness will be important tonight and the US have a big advantage here in my opinion. They flourished in these conditions in last year's Confed Cup. Other teams like Spain (who were coming off more than 1.5 years with no break) had some problems and subsquently lost 0-2 against the Americans. I see similar signs today. The English Players all a have long and tiresome season with 50+ games behind them and will face a - once again- incredibly fit US side that is used to the conditions.

I have full confidence in Capello as he's on of the best in the business but doubts over England form and formation remain. Personally I think a 4-2-3-1 would be best for them. Rooney has proven time and time again what a class lone striker he can be and Gerrard's and Lennon's defensive weaknesses in the wide roles wouldn't be as crucial with two central midfielders to cover them. Playing wide in the diamond formation Capello prefers isn't Gerrard's best position and surely he'd rather take Lampard's role. But the latter had a much better season and there's no way he should not be starting (Lampard can't really play elsewhere) tonight unless he gets injured.

Ideally in a 4-2-3-1 you would want to play Hargreaves alongside Barry in the central positions and these two obviously would be the candidates for that position in a 4-4-2. But Hargreaves is injured and Barry will miss the first game. That leaves Michael Carrick which is potentially bad news for England supporters. He really had a horrible season and under normal circumstances shouldn't be in South Africa. Now Barry isn't exactly a born lone holding midfielder either as he's more a passer than a tackler but I'd be more confident with him in that role.

This is enough for me to question England's extremely short odds. The Americans have formed a solid team and will make life very hard for their opponents. The battle in midfield in particular won't leave any room for breathing. Especially in those special circumstances I give the USA a decent chance to hold a superior English side. A draw seems likely but at these odds I happily give them a bigger handicap in case England wins by one.

> USA +1 @ 2.06/+106 (Betinternet)...2.00 available across the board

blackf1re · 06-13-10, 05:53 AM

Nice to see the game went as expected especially after that disappointing loss in the Argentina game. No plays today. In the other group I like Serbia but haven't found anything in the markets that interests me apart from my future bets.

Edit: Gotta admit odds on Australia are tempting. Will have to think about that.

blackf1re · 06-15-10, 04:40 AM

Ivory Coast v Portugal - GrC, 15.00 GMT

First of all: DROGBA WILL PLAY

The markets have reacted heavily to the lack of goals in the WC so far. The odds are that high now that I cause resist betting the over. Infact the odds for the over 2.5 have risen from 2.15 one month ago to ~2.7 now! That is crazy as it's still the same match.

Brazil are heavy favourites to win the group and in my opinion the whole tournament. So you could argue that today's match in Port Elizabeth is a must-win for both Portugal and the Ivorians. I have my doubts we will see them approach the game as cautiously as in some of the low-scoring affair so far.

Another intesting aspect is that the game will be played at sea level which for me makes it bit for likely that we will see a fast-paced game and little less midjudging of the very light ball.

I have split my stakes. 75% on over 2 and 25% on over 2.5 goals.

> Over 2 Goals @ 2.09/+109 (BetPhoenix), Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.71/+171 (Pinnacle)

blackf1re · 06-17-10, 03:09 AM

Argentina v South Korea - GrB, 12.30 GMT

South Korea impressed in their first game but remain underrated by the markets. Everybody knew about their incredible work rate and fitness but on top of that they really played some nice football. The move from sea level to 1700m altitude might be a concern but if there's one side that is prepared for that it's the Koreans. And they have already made a trip to Joburg his year.

Argentina are still a bit of a surprised package. The could have scored more in their opener against Nigeria but by the same token faced more problems than many people (including me) expected.

All things considered I think both sides would be content with a draw and I expect a low-scoring hard-fought match. With that in mind Argentina's very short price isn't justified imho and I have to go with the Taeguk Warriors

> South Korea +1 @ 2.10/+110 (BetOnline)

blackf1re · 06-17-10, 03:19 AM

Greece v Nigeria - GrB, 15.00 GMT

I know that betting the over seems be to getting you into the poor house but I really think that is gonna change with matchday 2 and will take my chance again.

Argentina and South Korea are big favourites to advance to the next round so there's no excuses for Greece and Nigeria today. They just have to win. There is no point in sitting back anymore. Especially with a meeting against one of the Top2 still to come.

Even with the expectation of an open game the poor finishing of both sides leaves some doubts. But after all these low-scoring affairs the available odds are sky-high and now seems a good opportunity to take advantage of that.

> Over 2 goals @ 2.26/+126 (12bet)

blackf1re · 06-17-10, 03:33 AM

France v Mexico - GrA, 19.30 GMT

I am gonna oppose France again here and remain hopeful they will not make the next round

The Frenchmen started their WC campaign in Cape Town and made the long trip to Polokwane which is a completely different part of South Africa. It will be substantially colder and most importantly the game will be played at 1300m above sea level. Certainly an advantage for the Mexicans, who will not only be stepping down from Joburg, but most of the squad will have grown up at altitude with Guadalajara at 1600m and Mexico City 2200m.

On paper the French squad is obvioulsy superior but they seem unable to get their act together as a team under Domenech. Their match against Uruguay was another dire display. One of so many over the last years.

Drawing with the host in a WC opener is something most teams would take but I think Mexico weren't too happy about the outcome. They were the better side and arguably should have one. They didnt look like world beaters either but they must fancy their chances against this disorganized French team. You can even get mimimum handicap at odds against but I'm confident they will win so I have taken them off level ball.

> Mexico 0 @ 2.66/+166 (12bet)

suckerforparlays · 06-17-10, 03:35 AM

Originally posted by blackf1re

Argentina v South Korea - GrB, 12.30 GMT

South Korea impressed in their first game but remain underrated by the markets. Everybody knew about their incredible work rate and fitness but on top of that they really played some nice football. The move from sea level to 1700m altitude might be a concern but if there's one side that is prepared for that it's the Koreans. And they have already made a trip to Joburg his year.

Argentina are still a bit of a surprised package. The could have scored more in their opener against Nigeria but by the same token faced more problems than many people (including me) expected.

All things considered I think both sides would be content with a draw and I expect a low-scoring hard-fought match. With that in mind Argentina's very short price isn't justified imho and I have to go with the Taeguk Warriors

> South Korea +1 @ 2.10/+110 (BetOnline)

excellent write up I got Korea at +1.5 and at the Draw +375

Tommy_de1st · 06-17-10, 05:56 AM

GL
I agree completely with you Blackf1re

blackf1re · 06-18-10, 03:52 AM

Korea disappointed but in the end a nice day. My only bet for today is England -1.5 (@ even money). Unfortunately odds have dropped since and not gonna make an 'official' play just yet.

poochiecollins · 06-18-10, 04:40 PM

Black1fire, what do you mean when you post figures like "+1 @ 2.10"? Thank you.

Tommy_de1st · 06-19-10, 08:55 AM

+1 means handicap to the underdog
2.10 is the odd in decimal format and equals +110

blackf1re · 06-19-10, 11:14 AM

I can already tell you that I'm gonna oppose France a third time.

Get on SA 0, +0.25 or +0.5 before the odds shorten further. Hell every bet against France is probably good.