Using Betfair to make picks

AsRequested · 03-23-10, 04:18 AM

I guess it depends on the reasons behind that as always. i'd take a look at that game, at the news and if this one team comes from a sick run of wins or the other team has lost 7 games in a row etc this might be 'square money'.
if you cant find a reason why the mass would favor this team over the other team in this extent then... well maybe i'd still only bet small on it.

nulldah · 03-23-10, 04:40 AM

i'm not sure about major league like epl, etc.. but i wouldn't do it for sure at smaller league like turkish, russian, portugal.. usually the major teams that appeared at el or cl will get extremely low odds because of this heavy money n yet, they r not that superior, in my opinion.

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 11:13 AM

well ive made a parlay for fun of all the "smaller" league picks that I think fit the criteria i posted above.
Also on a side note compared to all the other AFC games, Kawasaki and Melbourne had the most money but almost all of the money was on kawasaki.

here is the parlay:

mihaita666 · 03-23-10, 11:52 AM

what were you downloading thorough utorrent

?

905prodigy · 03-23-10, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by mihaita666

what were you downloading thorough utorrent

?

lmao

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 12:28 PM

haha, nothing I think its just open

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

well ive made a parlay for fun of all the "smaller" league picks that I think fit the criteria i posted above.
Also on a side note compared to all the other AFC games, Kawasaki and Melbourne had the most money but almost all of the money was on kawasaki.

here is the parlay:

9/11

Wish i wont 12 Grand from 1$

maybe this could work though

JOHON8 · 03-23-10, 05:33 PM

Holy crap you got 9 out of 11 right. Even the favorites were upset in those 9. The other 2 were off by 1 goal... I think we need to make a list like this as many times as we can and experiment on the teams in a different way in case 1 or more don't work.

did you just go around betfair looking at graphs and picking irregularities? If so we can help you save time by splitting leagues and putting our finds in a thread together.

mihaita666 · 03-23-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by 905prodigy

lmao

well, humanity without humor is boring, that's one of my living principles

Masu485 · 03-23-10, 05:37 PM

this could be the next big thing, but betfair's been around for a while. why has no one picked up on it yet?

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 06:14 PM

what I did was look at each league, and noticed the amount of money generally bet on each game.
Then with games where the number was significantly more, I looked if there was majority on the money on one side
However using common sense it is obvious that a game with a top team playing will have more money then two middle table teams playing each other, and all the money should be on the big favourite, so skip those ones and look for games like the ones I posted

xGrr · 03-23-10, 07:00 PM

i remember seen this before and it was failing because it was mainly square money but i do believe this included big leagues as well. I am curious to see how this will go in the next few days with only small leagues looked at.

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 07:04 PM

well you have to be smart about it, if you see Man U palying wolves it is expected all the money will be on them..but when you see a team at +210 with majority of the money it obviously isnt square money correct?

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 07:20 PM

I checked the money at about 3 AM est, I wont be able to check that late today, So at best I'll do it before bed, or if not in class tomorrow early morning

xGrr · 03-23-10, 07:29 PM

Today there was another thread where people said they might be a possible fix on the game of Vicenza v Crotone, 2 teams from Serie B and the reason behind it was because of the amount of money that was put in betfair for a draw (the draw pre game was 1.60 and the game had over 1.1 million matched). The game finished 0-2, now either the fix went wrong or maybe some guy with a lot of money was thinking a draw will happen or betfair maybe faked it, anyway it killed the odds and triggered a snowball having other people jump in.

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 07:32 PM

Yeah I noticed that today aswell, but We were not allowed to bet on that after I had found it out anyways, plus dont you think the mob is smarter then that?

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 08:24 PM

so far this is what I have found for tomorrow,
I think for games in the afternoon the money will start coming in later tonight so we will pay attention to those

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 08:40 PM

Really Liking AL-Saad

Masu485 · 03-23-10, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

so far this is what I have found for tomorrow,
I think for games in the afternoon the money will start coming in later tonight so we will pay attention to those

could you say what leagues these are from?

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Masu485

could you say what leagues these are from?

Ya for sure sorry:

AFC Champions League:
Al-Saad SC +110
Al Ittihad Jeddah +130

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga
Ceske Budejovice +100

Bulgaria A PFG
Lokomotiv Mezdra +350

Austria Bundesliga
SV Ried +150

Masu485 · 03-23-10, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by rfr3sh

Ya for sure sorry:

AFC Champions League:
Al-Saad SC +110
Al Ittihad Jeddah +130

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga
Ceske Budejovice +100

Bulgaria A PFG
Lokomotiv Mezdra +350

Austria Bundesliga
SV Ried +150

thanks, if i remember correctly al ittihad has an amazing commentator. i watch the highlights sometimes just to hear him. may tail you on these. thanks again!

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 09:24 PM

I wouldnt risk anything big on these as it was just a test with positive results on the first day I just did a round robin parlay with these 5 for a small wager

TWEETS · 03-23-10, 09:34 PM

If a couple weeks of results come back like todays, it would seem to be smart to pull this each day and do some Round Robins.

JOHON8 · 03-23-10, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by TWEETS

If a couple weeks of results come back like todays, it would seem to be smart to pull this each day and do some Round Robins.

exactly what I'm thinking.

If at least 70-90% of these picks are hitting then we should start doing roundrobins, because the odds of the games are very valuable. There is a lot of uncertainty, but we can start to get used to the patterns the more we experiment.

Also guys please be responsible about your betting. My advice i to keep it small, or not bet at all unless you yourself are certain about risking your money. After all this is a business that revolves around corruption.

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 10:00 PM

yup exactly just teting it now

rfr3sh · 03-23-10, 10:14 PM

Look at

Total matched on this event: $773 Betting summary - Volume: $635 Last price matched: 4.30
82% of the money on this random team, I like it

Masu485 · 03-23-10, 10:47 PM

how do round robins work exactly?

JOHON8 · 03-23-10, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Masu485

how do round robins work exactly?

1 example of many: you pick 4 teams and bet 6 doubles on them, meaning at least 2 have to win to get a return.
another example: you pick a 7 team parlay, but do a 5 fold (21 bets) so that if 1 or 2 lose you still get a return.

Go try it in the SBR picks page, there is a round robin option. Also google it you'll find easier explanations. Books have different options on round robins.

In my experience round robins are usually good if you have a bunch of picks that you really like to win, yet you don't want to do a full parlay in case you get unlucky and 1 or more lose.

Masu485 · 03-23-10, 11:04 PM

looking at the options at my book, it seems kind of complicated. i'm guessing i'll do RR with 2's? 3's?

TurkzZ · 03-23-10, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by mihaita666

well, humanity without humor is boring, that's one of my living principles

the force is strong with you master capper

uva3021 · 03-23-10, 11:19 PM

what about a play like Atalanta v Cagliari

Atalanta 1.83 ($268,000)
Cagliari 5 ($8000)
Draw 3.75 ($7000)

would atalanta just be a square bet? high volume on high favorite, but its absurd the percentage of bets on one side

Masu485 · 03-23-10, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by uva3021

what about a play like Atalanta v Cagliari

Atalanta 1.83 ($268,000)
Cagliari 5 ($8000)
Draw 3.75 ($7000)

would atalanta just be a square bet? high volume on high favorite, but its absurd the percentage of bets on one side

it looks like a good play even without any fixes.

JOHON8 · 03-24-10, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by uva3021

what about a play like Atalanta v Cagliari

Atalanta 1.83 ($268,000)
Cagliari 5 ($8000)
Draw 3.75 ($7000)

would atalanta just be a square bet? high volume on high favorite, but its absurd the percentage of bets on one side

Atalanta is currently sitting in the relegation zone = desparate, and they actually beat Cagliari away from home, 0-1 on February 8th. But the last time they met Cagliari won 3-0 at home. The huge bet is still a mystery though since I have no idea how popular Atalanta is with the public, interesting to see how the game is played with these odds.

loyd · 03-24-10, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

The huge bet is still a mystery though since I have no idea how popular Atalanta is with the public, interesting to see how the game is played with these odds.

the 268,000 is the amount that was backed at 1.89 and is being laid at 1.83. 0.03 x 268.000 is $8040. the bettors offering that money want to secure a 0.03 point profit before even the match starts.