2025 African Cup of Nations Picks

[DiamondJack]

A holiday/New years bi-annual tradition like no other. The tournament kicks off on Sunday Dec 21 with all games being hosted in Morocco. The hosts are the odds on favourite to win the trophy. The upcoming world cup in June will make these matches harder to cap as the majority of the favourites have already qualified for the world cup and may be using this tournament to test out formations/players instead of focusing on winning the AFCON. Out of the top 11 odds on favourites only Nigeria, Cameroon & Mali are the trio not going to North America.



Historically looking back at the last 6 tournaments the trends favour unders and draws. Since 2012 from 252 games 37% of them ended level and averaged 2.08 goals per game. Usually the tournament is held in the winter because of the heat in Africa. This will not be a problem in Morocco as cool temperatures are forecast. So I'm expecting a 2.25 goals per game average.

[DiamondJack]

I'm not a big futures player but I do have a few that I locked in. Morocco are the rightful favourites being hosts and quite frankly being overdue not having won the continental championship since 1976. However at the current odds there is zero value backing the home side. I do like the value on Mali who have never won the tournament to make a run.



1. Mali to make the final @ 6.00/+500 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Group F features two teams heading in different directions. The Ivory Coast are the current title holders and are focusing the upcoming world cup. Cameroon have been bounced out of the world cup. The past 2 head to head Cameroon have won once and tied the other. I see this as a coin flip as to who wins the group, so going with the numbers;



2. Cameroon Group F winner @ 2.75/+175 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Group C features two heavy weights in Nigeria & Tunisia. It is important to note that 4 out of the 6 3rd place teams advance to the next round. I see Uganda as a favourite to to edge Tanzania for 3rd. Head to head wise Uganda have won 5 and lost 3 in the last 5 years. Uganda have also have had a great run of form lately netting 18 points in their past 10 games.



3. Uganda to Qualify @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Group A features the hosts and odds on favourite to get to the final Morocco and my pick Mali to make a run. Comoros will fight it out for 3rd place in the group versus Zambia. Head to head wise Zambia & the Comoros islands have a 2W 2L 1D record in the past 5 years. Comoros have an extra day of rest versus Zambia so I think its 50/50 who gets 3rd as 4 of the 6th place sides going through.


4. Comoros to Qualify @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Will Hill

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Group A features the hosts and odds on favourite to get to the final Morocco and my pick Mali to make a run. Comoros will fight it out for 3rd place in the group versus Zambia. Head to head wise Zambia & the Comoros islands have a 2W 2L 1D record in the past 5 years. Comoros have an extra day of rest versus Zambia so I think its 50/50 who gets 3rd as 4 of the 6th place sides going through.


4. Comoros to Qualify @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Will Hill

Salud, DJ, good stuff. I've done a good bit of research on Comoros:
*I like the HC Cusin. He'll be well-prepared.
*Zambia is more historical name. Comoros will be eager to compete.

Good Luck!

[DiamondJack]

SUN DEC 21


5. HT/FT Result DRAW/Morocco @ 4.10/+310 (1u) Unibet


Morocco should take care of business in their opener. However such big favourites rarely cover the Asian handicap in this tournament. There is a 37% chance of a HT draw, I'm hoping that Comoros can hang in there until half time before succumbing to a much better side in the second half.

[DiamondJack]

MON DEC 22


6. Mali win to nil @ 2.25/+125 (1u) Bet365

7. Mali -1 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365


The last meeting between these sides ended up with 1-0 win for Mali. I pretty much expect the same as I don't see any goal scoring threat aside from Leicester's Patson Daka who has only 1 goal this season on Zambia. Form wise Zambia have lost 4 straight coming into the tournament where as Mali are undefeated in their past 3 matches.

[DiamondJack]

MON DEC 22


8. South Africa/Angola to DRAW @ 2.81/+181 (1u) Bet365

The last meeting between South Africa and Angola just this past summer that ended with a 1-1 score line. Both sides are in good form with Angola winning their last 2 games and South Africa winning their past 3. I expect a not to lose first approach here with Egypt the favourites in Group B still on tap. Both sides will also fancy a win versus group outsiders Zimbabwe.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

SUN DEC 21


5. HT/FT Result DRAW/Morocco @ 4.10/+310 (1u) Unibet


Morocco should take care of business in their opener. However such big favourites rarely cover the Asian handicap in this tournament. There is a 37% chance of a HT draw, I'm hoping that Comoros can hang in there until half time before succumbing to a much better side in the second half.

Very nice hit, Diamond. Maybe a little lucky on the missed PK.

I saw the hi-lites. Morocco looked legit. Hard to imagine there's a better attacking team at AFCON.

[Friegentahl]

thanks :-)

[DiamondJack]

MON DEC 22


9. HT/FT Result Egypt/Egypt @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Bet365


Zimbabwe are the odds of favourite to finish bottom of the group. They have lost the last 5 head to head games. Zimbabwe have only won once in their past 7 games. I expect a win for Egypt as they are the clear favourites to top the Group.

[DiamondJack]

TUE DEC 23


10. DR Congo ML @ 1.75/-133 (1u) Bet365

11. DR Congo win to nil @ 1.15/+125 (1u) Bet365


DR Congos last 5 games all were winners 4 of which were to nil. The last 2 games for Benin both losses with zero goals scored and 7 goals against. The last head to head ended with a 2-0 score line in favour of DR Congo. I'm expecting these trends to continue.

[DiamondJack]

TUE DEC 23


12. HT/FT Result Senegal/Senegal + win to nil (Same game parlay) @ 2.08/+108 (1u) Bet365


This is the biggest mismatch in my opinion in the first round of games. The last 2 head to head results were both Senegal wins of 2-0 & 3-0. Botswana are winless in their last 5 losing 4. Senegal has won 6 of their last 7 games only losing to Brazil in a friendly.

[DiamondJack]

TUE DEC 23


13. HT Result DRAW @ 2.30/+130 (1u) Bet365


This match is difficult to cap at these current odds. Nigeria is the clear favourite but both teams are coming into the game not exactly in great form. Thus this will be an in-game play for me. I feel a Red card might be issued and a PK scored so I'm looking at those props. If I jump on anything else it will be at the half.

[DiamondJack]

TUE DEC 23


14. HT Result DRAW @ 2.02/+102 (1u) Pinnacle


The last match of the day is like a mirror image of the Nigeria/Tanzania match. The weather is bad its going to be raining. That usually points to the Under but both teams have been scoring lately. Tunisia last 3 games over and Uganda's past 3 also over 2.5. My analysis has this as a 1-1 final, however anything can happen in the rain.

[DiamondJack]

WED DEC 24


15. HT/FT Result DRAW/Burkina Faso @ 4.50/+350 (1u) Bet365


In form Burkina Faso are coming into their opener undefeated in their past 6 games with 5 wins and 1 draw. Equatorial Guinea have only won once in their past 5 games. At least the weather looks good in Casablanca. Cagey opening first half followed by Burkina Faso ultimately snatching a 1-0 win.

[DiamondJack]

WED DEC 24

16. Algeria/Sudan Total Goals UNDER 2.25 @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Bet365

In the last 5 games for Algeria 3 go under 2.5 goals, same for Sudan where 3 of the past 5 have gone under the number. Also 2 of the past 3 head to head have Under 2.5. It will be interesting to gage Algeria's passion for the tournament as from what I learned they might use some players from the Arab cup here testing their "fringe" players before the world cup. If you want to back Algeria I would wait for lineups and tactics.

[DiamondJack]

WED DEC 24



17. Ivory Coast PK converted in match yes @ 5.00/+400 (1u) Bet365


Everything seems to be lined right here so I'm finding it hard to find value in anything when it comes to this match so I'm going to play the numbers and the referee here. Sprinkling on a prop.

[DiamondJack]

WED DEC 24



18. Cameroon to DRAW @ 3.10/+210 (1u) Bet365

19. No goal scorer @ 6.50/+550 (1u) Bet365


I'm not going to double dip here as I already have Cameroon on a future. Both sides coming into this game on the back of losses and the last head to head ended 0-0. I'm also going in on a prop that if an own goal is scored the wager still cashes.

[DiamondJack]

FRI DEC 26


20. Angola/Zimbabwe to DRAW @ 3.42/+242 (1u) Bet365


Both sides have opened up their tournament with identical 2-1 score line losses. There has not been a head to head meeting recently but there has been a common opponent in South Africa that Angola lost to and Zimbabwe tied 0-0. We have only had 1 draw in the first round of games I expect that run to end this round with must win situations.

[DiamondJack]

FRI DEC 26


21. Egypt/South Africa to DRAW @ 3.12/+212 (1u) Bet365


Both sides have 3 points in pocket starting off their campaigns with wins. Recent head to head meetings were in the African Nations tournament that is based from players playing on the continent in their local leagues, thus I can't put much weight on those results. We have yet to see the 0-0 score line still this match could be a contender as both would be happy with a point.

[DiamondJack]

FRI DEC 26


22. Comoros +0.25 @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Bet365


In their past 3 head to head games since Sep of 2023 Comoros wins 2 and ties 1. Comoros have an extra day of rest and prep since they played in the opener. If I did not have a future on them to advance I would have 2 units on this game.

[DiamondJack]

FRI DEC 26


23. Morocco/Mali UNDER 2.25 total goals @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Bet365


I'm hoping the trend of the day continues here. Morocco have arguably the best defense in the CAF. Coming into this match they have 5 clean sheets out the past 6 games. Mali have also kept 6 clean sheets out of their last 9 games.

[DiamondJack]

SAT DEC 27


24. Benin/Botswana UNDER 2 total goals @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Pinnacle

25. Benin/Botswana UNDER 8.5 total corners @ 1.91/110 (1u) Bet365


Both sides have been shut out in their opening games. All odds point to an ugly 1-0 win for Benin, but I'm skeptical either side can score here. I like to play unders in corners between even pretty much even sides in very meaningful games. Benin have won 5,4,4 corners in their last 3 games where as Botswana won 2,4,3. My numbers say 7.5 total corners so getting a little value on the under 8.5.

[DiamondJack]

SAT DEC 27


26. Senegal/DR. Congo BTTS YES @ 2.25/+125 (1u) Bet365


Both sides have won their opening games. Both sides have also met in world cup qualifying with scorelines of 1-1 in Senegal and a 3-2 win for Senegal coming back from 2-0 down in the Congo. Senegal have scored 25 goals in their last 6 games averaging 3.57 gpg. DR. Congo have scored in each on their past 11 games. Getting plus money on both teams to score is the play.

[DiamondJack]

SAT DEC 27


27. Uganda -0.5 Corner handicap @ 1.95/+105 (1u) Bet365


Tanzania have not won a game since August making them winless in their past 8. Uganda have a record of 5W 4L 1T in that same stretch of time. Since I already have a future on Uganda to qualify I'm not going to double dip. I think the pressure will come from Uganda so I'm backing them to have more corners.

[DiamondJack]

SAT DEC 27


28. Tunisia ML @ 3.90/+290 (1u) Bet365


There is too much value on Tunisia here as I had this lined even. Form wise Tunisia have won 3 straight, where as Nigeria have won once and lost twice and their last 3 games. Tunisia won the last head to head and impressed my more in their opener winning 3-1 versus Uganda. Nigeria barely got by Tanzania 2-1 in their opener.

[DiamondJack]

SUN DEC 28


29. Mozambique +0.5 @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365


There really is not too much difference between these two sides. Form wise both have lost their past 2 games by identical margins 1-0 & 4-1. There has not been any recent head to head encounters to make any difference. I had Gabon priced at +130 on the ML so I have to back Mozambique on the double chance.

[DiamondJack]

SUN DEC 28


30. EG/Sudan HT Result DRAW @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365

31. HT/FT Result DRAW/DRAW @ 4.00/+300 (1/2 u) Bet365

32. EG/Sudan FT Result DRAW @ 3.00/+200 (1/2 u) Bet365

33. No goal scorer @ 6.00/+500 (1/2 U) Bet365


Both sides have an identical record of 1W 3L 1D in their past 5, AKA both these teams SUCK. Both have also have scored only 3 goals in their past 5 games. The Nil Nil detector is on, however as always take no goal scorer just in case an own goal is scored.

[DiamondJack]

SUN DEC 28







34. Burkina Faso +0.5 @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Bet365


Both sides have won their opening game and both have an easy opponent in their last match. The last 3 head to head matches all ended in draws. Algeria should be the favourite but not at these odds as I had them lined at +120.

[DiamondJack]

SUN DEC 28


35. Ivory Coast/Cameroon to DRAW @ 2.89/+189 (1u) Bet365


Both sides have won their opening game with identical 1-0 score lines. The last head to head meeting ended up 1-1. I think both will be glad to get a point each.

[DiamondJack]

MON DEC 29

36. Angola AH Corners PK/0 @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365

Egypt has already qualified and can afford to sit back and soak up the pressure that Angola who must win to advance. It all looks like a draw with Egypt playing keep away kick ball trying to frustrate Angola. No value on the draw as Egypt can win this as Angola go all out to get a result so I'm going with Angola to get more corners.

[DiamondJack]

MON DEC 29


37. Zimbabwe +0.5 @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Bet365

A point will get South Africa into the net round where as Zimbabwe need the 3 to go through. Head to head the last time these sides met was a 1-1 result in world cup qualification. I think Zimbabwe gets at least a draw.

[DiamondJack]

Updated record going into round 3


16-15-0 +994 Units