Season 2015-2016

[cogiditopapa]

Nice bro! here is what I wrote about my pick when I posted in my page:

DCUnited has been the best team to come from behind in MLS this season. Olsen has got a slap in the face in the 1st minute and now his tactics of given up ball possession and wait for other teams has to change to beast/aggressive mode, he cannot afford to keep dropping points. The only way for DC to win this match is to be ultra-aggressive and swap punches like they were doing with teams in during the summer 4-3 against RSL coming from behind is a great example. NYC will get them on the counter and will probably keep pressing DC in Midfield to steal balls where they seem to be stronger. Let's see what DC is made of.

[O]

Nice bro! here is what I wrote about my pick when I posted in my page:

DCUnited has been the best team to come from behind in MLS this season. Olsen has got a slap in the face in the 1st minute and now his tactics of given up ball possession and wait for other teams has to change to beast/aggressive mode, he cannot afford to keep dropping points. The only way for DC to win this match is to be ultra-aggressive and swap punches like they were doing with teams in during the summer 4-3 against RSL coming from behind is a great example. NYC will get them on the counter and will probably keep pressing DC in Midfield to steal balls where they seem to be stronger. Let's see what DC is made of.

I hadn't seen this but in either case, I liked your pic. And when I looked at the possession and pressing of DC I thought they had two in them and bang in extra time! My win is attributed to you and your pic. Thanks man. Continued success.

[cogiditopapa]

Those previews are posted in my other blog page. Anyhow that was a great win for you bro, it was almost a Jackpot! Congrats!

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Queretaro - Xolos
Over 1.5 @2.50 (1 unit) min 47 0-0

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Atlante - Cafetaleros
Over 2.5 @1.70 (1 unit) 1-1 min 68

[cogiditopapa]

MexicoU23 - CostaRicaU23
Over 2.5 @1.90 (1 unit)

[cogiditopapa]

10/3

Chelsea - Southampton
Bookings over 3.5 @1.80 (2.5 units)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

ManCity - NewCastle
Bookings over 3.5 @1.61 (1 unit) 0 bookings min 14

[cogiditopapa]

Granada - Depor
Depor ML @3.05 (1 unit)
Bookings over 5.5 @2.10 (1 unit)
Corners over 9.5 @1.80 (1 unit)

[Plukjee92]

Damn .just 3 in first half..

[cogiditopapa]

I know =(...moving on.

Espanyol - SportingGijon
Under 2.0 @2.26 (1 unit)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Monterrey - Leon
Over 2.5 @1.90 (1 unit) 0-0 min 15

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Chicago - NE
Over 2.5 @1.975 (1 unit) 0-0 min 8

[hope444]

Hi Papa you are doing an excellent job here.i 've a question to you regarding over goals.whenever i bet on O 2.5 goals, majority of time match ended with 2 goals scored and i lost the bet.i am betting since 5 years.i 've notice one thing that goal scoring chances will come to every team even if a bottom table team is playing a champion team, still chances will always come for bottom table team, but it feels like in today's soccer majority of team misses a lot chances.all the matches that i watched its almost like after wasting 5-6 easy goal scoring opportunities team score a goal.can find the the types of teams around the world that don't waste much goal scoring opportunities and their finishing should be brilliant.it doesn't matter if team is champion team or not as i saw so many world class teams and players misses a lot easy goal scoring chances.really tired of seeing almost every team misses a lot easy chances.

[cogiditopapa]

Hey hope, I understand why you are thinking this as I experience the same thoughts in the past.
As you say all teams will have have chances to score it doesn't matter how small they are. Now the critical part of finding the right teams has a a mix of qualities in my point of view, here are some:

Coach style of playing:
This is extremely important. If the coach is offensive minded more than likely they will commit more players going forward. Attack is their form of defense, if they are attacking they have ball possession this is key for an offensive coach. Example: Pep Guardiola, He is a very offensive coach that bases his defense in attack and ball possession. His teams usually creates several scoring chances and usually the players are clinical to finish. Usually Their biggest strength is midfield when they hold the ball possession but also their weakness, why? because if a team press them close in the midfield and steal the ball the counter could be deadly as there are very few players behind the midfield line.

Team traditional style of playing:
If a team traditionally is offensive chances are that offensive coaches will be hired. The same goes to teams that are used build defensive blocks, they must hire defensive minded coaches.

Check overish patterns:
Patterns tell you a story, it is your duty to find out if that story continues with the same pattern or not.

Long term thinking:
When you bet overs you need to understand that there are trends that become patterns. A team can hit so many over in a roll against another team but next week they are supposed to cover the over and they stay under. This is why checking H2H is so important, this data gives you the pattern and is up to you after you do your research (team news, current form,etc) to put the puzzle together and come up with the prediction.

Teams objectives:
At the start of the season teams have clear objectives based on their budgets and players line ups. Some teams main objective is avoid relegation. I think teams tend to play more openly at the beginning of the season as they need to pick up as many points as possible when everyone is healthy, managers can play their style example: Bournemouth, Norwich, Leicester. Later in the season you may see these teams scratching points and playing less open and trying to secure their defense a little more. Teams tend to play 1st half of the season a certain way and the 2nd part of the season in another way. This also goes to big teams the only difference is that those teams may have deeper bench therefore they try to keep the quality.

Players:
If you like a team that plays overs often check which player are making this happening: the player that passes the ball to dangerous places is as important as the forward who is clinical enough to finish the play. If you are going to bet the over on a game make sure you check line ups, if a key player is missing your chances to hit that over reduce. If this is the case then you need to come up with a line that you think the teams may cover. Example: If Messi is out, the over 3.5 or 4.5 line may be too much for Barca to cover, may be the line you think they can cover is only over 2.5, this line you come up with is your price to buy, if you buy at 3.5 and your line is 2.5 you are overpaying. If you wait for the live betting now you are trading. Example: The opening line is 3.5 but your price is 2.5 so you decide to wait until the bookie offers you that price, of course the risk is that there could be an early goal but even then you can still wait and see if the line comes down to where you want it. If it never comes down because there were more goals don't bang your head to the wall thinking that you lost money, the fact is that you had in your mind a fair price but the bookie never offered you that, therefore you should thinking that the situation was just not good enough for the trade.


There is always another game:
When you don't bet a game because the line you had in mind never show up, let me tell you, there is always another game. It is your job to find the right trade for your portfolio. Betting is not about hitting winners and taking cash all the time. This is mathematically impossible. You should be ok with winning and losing both are part of the game.

And last but not least,

Choose your teams:
Grab a piece of paper and see which teams are constantly cashing your overs and concentrate on them, you will have a better grip as you know a lot more info about this teams, playing style, coach etc. Don't start betting on teams from Japan just because you saw stats and this should hit, you may hit a few but in the long run if you don't study the teams and just bet based on stats you will not be able to predict the change of trend as may be a new pattern could be starting.

I hope I didn't bored you bro. and I hope this info helps you pick your position better.

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Portland - SKC
Over 0.5 @1.83 (1 unit) 0-0 71 min

[cogiditopapa]

9/4

RayoVallecano - RealBetis
Over 2.5 @1.745 (1 unit)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Everton - Liverpool
Both teams to score in the 2nd half @3.0 (0.5 units) 1-1 @HT

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Sampdoria - Inter
Bookings over 4.5 @1.72 (1 unit) currently 0 yellow cards 33 min

[cogiditopapa]

BayernMunich - BorussiaDortmund
Over 9.5 corners @2.05 (1 unit)

BayernLeverkusen - Ausburg
Over 9.5 @1.72 (1 unit)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Schalke04 - Koln
Over 1.5 @1.80 (1 unit) 0-0 at half time (VOIDED)

My schalke bet has been remove as I placed the bet the goal was score therefore not enough time to added to my record in SBR.

[cogiditopapa]

Arsenal - ManU
ManU ML @3.80 (0.50 units)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Schalke04 - Koln
Over 1.5 @1.80 (1 unit) 0-1 min 73

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

AthleticBilbao - Valencia
Bookings over 3.5 @1.80 (1 unit) min 54 0 yellow cards

[cogiditopapa]

BocaJuniors - CruceroDelNorte
BocaJuniors TT over 2.5 @1.83 (1 unit)

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

CostRicaU23 - HondurasU23
Honduras DNB @2.35 (1 unit) 0-0 6 min

[chuda]

was wondering, do you know anything about ca independiente and river plate team news?

i know both will rotate and seams heavy, but home side should still have good few regulars on, price is ok for home side imo and over 2.0 pays @ 2.1 ... i am thinking kids will do mistakes and will try hard to impress...

are you looking at this game?

[cogiditopapa]

I took a look at it. In fact their will be rotation in both teams. I think River will react to whatever Independiente propose, if the Independiente goes to attack, River is a good team counter attacking. I think this game is tricky as River will look to get a point at of here and they are very capable of doing it. If I have to bet anything on this game will be over 1 or over 1.5. but I wouldn't venture to look for that 3er goal.

[chuda]

tnx... 3 goals does sounds much. will try to get good price inplay , probably will check first 15 min...

[cogiditopapa]

GL bro

LiveBetting

ColoradoRapids - RLS
Over 2.25 @1.90 (1 unit) 0-0 12 min

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

AudaxItaliano - DeportesIquique
AudaxItaliano -0.5 1st half @1.825 (1 unit) 0-0 14 min

[hope444]

Thanks Papa for sharing all these valuable points.No.,i didn't get bored,i read every single line you wrote.i think finishing is what hurts most as chances always comes but if player in front of goal can't find the back of the net then what can we do.nothing.anyway i feel most comfortable betting on EPL games and i think i should focus on only the leagues which i know about.you are right it doesn't make sense to bet on games from lower leagues if you can't even watch them.stats doesn't tell everything.i am thinking to forget my loses and start with fresh mind again when EPL action return after 2 weeks because i think if i'll try to recover the loses then in process i'll gonna lose what i've left.also thinking to focus only major leagues especially EPL.also in past parlays gave me much better return than straight bets.so gonna focus on them too.again thanks for sharing valuable points.really like you and your work.

[cogiditopapa]

LiveBetting

Duisburg - Paderbon
Over 0.5 @1.80 (1 unit) 0-0 min 69

[cashin81]

we need a penalty..

[cogiditopapa]

Looks like we are good bro!
I was waiting to get that 0.5 over @1.80 the whole game =). That was my price to buy.