The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

[The Seer]

good work this weekend seer

thank you sir

Who are you feeling tonight in the bama nd match up

I took Bama for 3 units after the line came out. I'll find the post and give a few comments why later today.

[tblues2005]

Thanks the Seer for giving us a preview.

[jaeguyoon]

thank you sir

I took Bama for 3 units after the line came out. I'll find the post and give a few comments why later today.

liking the bama pick. it seems like the majority of the forum loves ND and I don't know why.

[coitus_maximus]

As long as the number is under 10. I see a 10pt win.

[Joe Sharp]

Roll Tide

[The Seer]

from my post on Dec 3rd:

Alabama -9 1/2 -110 3 units

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1874512-seers-2012-ncaaf-nfl-thread-p90.html#post16998344

A few comments on this game:
Much has been talked about with the ND front 7 on D vs Bama's O line. I feel there are battle that need to be talked about and they favor Bama. Bama's defensive front 7 is better than ND's offensive line especially in the redzone. Bama has the number 1 red zone scoring defense in the country. ND's redzone offense is 119th & they get TDs only 46% of the time. The other area I expect Bama to take advantage of is ND's secondary. It's the weak link in the secondary and AJ McCarron is number 1 in the country in passing efficiency, completing 67% of his passes at 9.3 yds per attempt (not completion) 26 TDs & only 3 INTs. There are other reasons such as ND committing more penalties & Bama's ability to make defensive adjustments. Mobile QBs are not that big of a deal vs Bama. As we've seen Manziel is a once in a generation player but Bama made adjustments against him. In the Texas A&M game, after the first quarter, Manziel led his team to only 1 TD & 1 fg. Gholston is no Manziel. I think he has more of a chance of turnovers than touchdowns. The 2 previous championship double digit underdogs have won outright but the spread has never matter in the BCS title game. Either the favorite has covered the number easily or the dog has won outright. If you like ND you could take the ML but right now after being bet down the value is actually better to take Bama on the ML. The one thing that keeps me from dropping 5 units on this game is the motivation factor. It will seemingly have to favor ND here & we've seen how important that is in these bowls. It's tough to quantify. Louisville was a good team but they played well over their heads vs Florida. Spare me the Lou is great comments, they got blown out by Syracuse & beaten by UCONN. LSU who is used to going to BCS games was much less motivated than Clemson & also loses due to bone head game management by Les MIles when it was obvious they had much better talent. If those were playoff games then we see different results. Saban is the best at keeping his team focused but these are still 18-22 year old kids and they are predictable at times and unpredictable at times. Bama stayed at a hotel on South Beach where it was a big party atmosphere Saturday night. ND stayed 12 miles away. Alabama fans feel entitled & ND fans are happy to be there. There's a reason teams haven't repeated but I just can't make a case for ND scoring much into double digits while I'm sure Bama gets there minimum 24 -27 points. No play for me on the total as these games often turn into blowouts. I've won a bunch in these bowls & 3 units won't hurt so I'm letting it roll on the Tide (no pun intended). GL I'm off to a party.

[No coincidences]

Good luck tonight Seer.

Nice season pal.

[mudman890]

What does everyone think about the Irish over 6.5 points in the second half. U gotta think they will score at least 1 td. It's -150 but I think it's good value

[matt711]

from my post on Dec 3rd:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1874512-seers-2012-ncaaf-nfl-thread-p90.html#post16998344

A few comments on this game:
Much has been talked about with the ND front 7 on D vs Bama's O line. I feel there are battle that need to be talked about and they favor Bama. Bama's defensive front 7 is better than ND's offensive line especially in the redzone. Bama has the number 1 red zone scoring defense in the country. ND's redzone offense is 119th & they get TDs only 46% of the time. The other area I expect Bama to take advantage of is ND's secondary. It's the weak link in the secondary and AJ McCarron is number 1 in the country in passing efficiency, completing 67% of his passes at 9.3 yds per attempt (not completion) 26 TDs & only 3 INTs. There are other reasons such as ND committing more penalties & Bama's ability to make defensive adjustments. Mobile QBs are not that big of a deal vs Bama. As we've seen Manziel is a once in a generation player but Bama made adjustments against him. In the Texas A&M game, after the first quarter, Manziel led his team to only 1 TD & 1 fg. Gholston is no Manziel. I think he has more of a chance of turnovers than touchdowns. The 2 previous championship double digit underdogs have won outright but the spread has never matter in the BCS title game. Either the favorite has covered the number easily or the dog has won outright. If you like ND you could take the ML but right now after being bet down the value is actually better to take Bama on the ML. The one thing that keeps me from dropping 5 units on this game is the motivation factor. It will seemingly have to favor ND here & we've seen how important that is in these bowls. It's tough to quantify. Louisville was a good team but they played well over their heads vs Florida. Spare me the Lou is great comments, they got blown out by Syracuse & beaten by UCONN. LSU who is used to going to BCS games was much less motivated than Clemson & also loses due to bone head game management by Les MIles when it was obvious they had much better talent. If those were playoff games then we see different results. Saban is the best at keeping his team focused but these are still 18-22 year old kids and they are predictable at times and unpredictable at times. Bama stayed at a hotel on South Beach where it was a big party atmosphere Saturday night. ND stayed 12 miles away. Alabama fans feel entitled & ND fans are happy to be there. There's a reason teams haven't repeated but I just can't make a case for ND scoring much into double digits while I'm sure Bama gets there minimum 24 -27 points. No play for me on the total as these games often turn into blowouts. I've won a bunch in these bowls & 3 units won't hurt so I'm letting it roll on the Tide (no pun intended). GL I'm off to a party.

Great call .....Great season

[matt711]

Too bad i was stupid and took ND...BOL in the playoffs

[moodyt2]

Seer who is the best college football team in the country?

[tblues2005]

A very good year the seer. Your not going to see our troll say that too!!

[DirtyBird1500]

Seer who is the best college football team in the country?

Pretty clear that its Texas A&M.

[briedward]

Seer - who do you like for Seahawks/Falcons? Prior to the Clemons injury, I really liked the Seahawks to win the NFC. Now I'm not as confident.

[Joe Sharp]

Seer, Congratulations on a great College season and thank you, for taking the time to post and share!! Good luck, through the NFL playoffs!!

[The Seer]

Good luck tonight Seer.

Nice season pal.

thanks man

Great call .....Great season

thanks

A very good year the seer. Your not going to see our troll say that too!!

Seer, Congratulations on a great College season and thank you, for taking the time to post and share!! Good luck, through the NFL playoffs!!

thanks chief

[daimoshokage]

Keep throwing the darts seer..

[The Seer]

Seer - who do you like for Seahawks/Falcons? Prior to the Clemons injury, I really liked the Seahawks to win the NFC. Now I'm not as confident.

I added Seattle myself. Clemons was better vs the run but Irvin should do as well in passing situations. This looks to be a real close game but I think the match up favors the Seahawks & they should win it outright but I'm taking the fg cushion. I think Atl is the worst one seed I've seen in a while but they've burned me a few times this year in situations I didn't expect them to cover so I'm just laying 1 unit.
Seattle +3 -120 1 unit

[The Seer]

Keep throwing the darts seer..

If only dart throwers could be so lucky. I bet it pisses you off knowing I've piled up so many wins since your last post on here. You are the opposite of a cooler.

[DirtyBird1500]

I added Seattle myself. Clemons was better vs the run but Irvin should do as well in passing situations. This looks to be a real close game but I think the match up favors the Seahawks & they should win it outright but I'm taking the fg cushion. I think Atl is the worst one seed I've seen in a while but they've burned me a few times this year in situations I didn't expect them to cover so I'm just laying 1 unit.
Seattle +3 -120 1 unit

Oh no Seer, you're killing me with this pick!!

I have to believe my Falcons are going to get over the hump this year and win at least this one. Should be a great game though.

GL

[tblues2005]

If only dart throwers could be so lucky. I bet it pisses you off knowing I've piled up so many wins since your last post on here. You are the opposite of a cooler.

This is no shock that he didn't say anything good about how you season ended either did he? The fading from him made him downright broke.

[BuckeyeNick]

anything for today seer?

[BuckeyeNick]

seer, any leans on the g b/s f game?

[The Seer]

a few more tidbits to pass on in the first game today

With Manning at QB, the Broncos are 6-1 ATS & 7-0 SU as a home fave
In Den 11 game win streak, they scored 30 points or more in 9 of those games & 7 were double digit victories
Manning has covered 8 straight vs Balt. He knows this defense well.
pass efficiency- Broncos: 1.42, the Ravens:1.03
sack differential- Broncos: +31, Ravens: -1
turnover margin- Broncos:-1, Ravens: +8
On the total, there may be overreaction to cold weather. since 2005 in games below 32 degrees the over is 67-46. Since the total has dropped in this game to 44 now, the over may be a bit more attractive.
GL

[The Seer]

anything for today seer?

already posted days ago. I'm on Den & have a teaser with NE

seer, any leans on the g b/s f game?

SF

[DirtyBird1500]

I love the over in DEN/BAL now that it has dropped to 44. Think its a great play.

[The Seer]

I love the over in DEN/BAL now that it has dropped to 44. Think its a great play.

looking good DB

[DirtyBird1500]

looking good DB

Don't come much easier than that! These kick returns are unbelievable.

[The Seer]

late game adding:
SF -3 even 1 unit (Bovada)
lean over

[Bostongambler]

Good luck Seer

[DirtyBird1500]

late game adding:
SF -3 even 1 unit (Bovada)
lean over

GL Seer, love SF tonight.

[BankingwithBA]

Why do u "love" Sf tonight? u do realize they are playing Aron Rodgers right?

[DirtyBird1500]

Why do u "love" Sf tonight? u do realize they are playing Aron Rodgers right?

Oh shit really? I thought Favre was still the QB of the Packers?

[DirtyBird1500]

Why do u "love" Sf tonight? u do realize they are playing Aron Rodgers right?

So what was that again?

[briedward]

I got burned on Denver today. Didn't think in a million years Denver defense would implode. Flacco normally does terrible vs Del Rio defenses. Perhaps we will see on the NBC Sports show, 'Turning Point,' how Flacco did things differently to succeed.

Hopefully we get our money back with Seattle.