Vegas Dave's Season Long NBA Learning Experience: Help Me Out!

[VegasDave]

Hey guys...

So here's the deal. I'm very confident in my ability to cap football, hockey, and baseball; that isn't to say I don't have plenty of room for improvement, we all do; but I know how to pick winners in these sports.

NBA (and NCAA) basketball, I don't have the slightest clue.

So in this thread I'm going to spend the season making plays and doing write-ups. I expect to have a losing season, just like I did in my first year capping college football last year. I WILL NOT BE BETTING THESE GAMES AND NEITHER SHOULD YOU. Just a learning experience!

I can't do this alone. Please share your strategies with me! How do you cap? What type of match-ups do you look for? Would love to hear how you all go about it

I won't be making any plays until a few weeks into the season so I can watch who is doing well and poorly. So until then, any discussion is more than welcome!

P.S. Don't post your plays/locks in here without commentary! I don't want to blindly follow anyone, plenty of talented guys I could do that with around here. I want to learn. So if you love a play and want to share it, let me know WHY, so I can see what is working and why.

Thanks guys!

[I.R.B]

GL bud.. Trust me after a few weeks or even a month you will get the hang of it.

[BestPlay2day]

I like to wait 2-3 weeks before making any NBA bets to see if any trends develop and figure out what teams look good. I do the samething in baseball, season is long and there's plenty of time to make bets.

Some NBA trends I have bet against in past years are: 2nd game on a back-to-back while other team is rested, 1st game back from a long road trip, and team playing 4th game in 5 days. Have grinded out a small profit the last couple of years, but not getting rich betting basketball. We'll see how this year goes.

[LT Profits]

Toronto should be a good Over team this year, as they added more offense with Jermaine O'Neal while doing nothing to help the defense.

[rm18]

How would O'neal help the offense? He if a decent defender, does not play into the fastbreak, and will take minutes from Andrea Bargnagni

[I.R.B]

O'neal can put up 20-25 ppg on a team lacking a shooter..

[ZBOIZ]

Once you learn the players then you can be able to do matchups and see were's the clear advantage!!

But VegasDave I might need your help with Hockey!!

But If you need winners in NBA just follow me and learn at the same time, or follow some of the one's that's proving themselves during this season. Also once again I might need your help with this hockey stuff

[VegasDave]

ZBOIZ, I'm pretty easy to find, any time you need help on pucks let me know!

[gm2022]

Dave you will get the hang of it after a few weeks!

[VegasDave]

Okay, I'm going to try out a super-simple (and super-stupid) method today.

All I did was take the league average points (97) and find the difference between both teams points for and points against compared to the league average to try and predict scoring.

I do not expect it to work, but just for fun lets give it a few plays.

SUNDAY 11/16:

Miami +3.5
New York Knicks +2

(Oh, just noticed the Miami game has started. Doesn't matter for what I'm doing, just testing this system... doesn't really affect anything that it is 20 - 20 in the 1st quarter to me.)

[gm2022]

Take the magic today Dave! I wish My Nba season was going like my football!

[VegasDave]

The Magic passed my "test" too, but not by a wide enough margin.

[VegasDave]

Going to just watch and see how blindly fading the public does... Will pick teams that have less then 20% of action on them.

Tonight, 1 Play:

Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-101 Matchbook)

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Going to just watch and see how blindly fading the public does... Will pick teams that have less then 20% of action on them.

Tonight, 1 Play:

Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-101 Matchbook)

horrible play

[VegasDave]

horrible play

That would explain why nobody is on it!

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

That would explain why nobody is on it!

except dac and patty

[losturmarbles]

dave theyre hosting the hottest team in the league, the cavs have won 9 straight and they like to win big

[VegasDave]

Guys, I'm aware of how good the Cavs are. I'm just trying out a system. I'm not betting it yet, just trying it out. I can't NOT make a play on the system because it looks bad. I highly doubt there are many plays that less then 20% of the betting public is on that actually look good.

If you have the Cavs, good luck. I'm just doing this for curiosity's sake.

[losturmarbles]

i gotcha, hell cavs could lose tonight, nothing wrong with taking the home dog against a big public favorite.
good luck

[RogueScholar]

Good luck Dave, I'm glad to see you've still got basketball in the back of your mind. Cleveland is on fire, but Philadelphia isn't easily discouraged. And you catch watch on ESPN and get a feel for the dynamics.

[pat venditto]

vegas dave an idiot

[VegasDave]

vegas dave an idiot

You are not a nice person Pat.

You laugh and criticize people when they have bad weeks, and you never say "good job or nice pick" when someone hits on a pick you disagree with, you just call them square and lucky.

I'm just tracking a system to see how it will do, I wasn't endorsing anyone play it or anything. I'm sure not a single person tailed me on this pick.

So many people on this site make fun of you, compare you to DacBiet, etc... when have I ever joined in on that? I never make fun of you or criticize your picks. Why do you always come after me?

[pat venditto]

System lmao. No such thing as a system. You bet against a team who has won by 12 or more points in their last what 10 games? Use your ****ing brain worst pick ever even worse than your niners bet.

[Tsoprano]

Although Pat's response comes off strong, I actually think it's on point.

You can't fade hot teams in NBA.

[pat venditto]

He thinks fading the public is the way to win long term. Games are not fixed use your brain.

[VegasDave]

System lmao. No such thing as a system. You bet against a team who has won by 12 or more points in their last what 10 games? Use your ****ing brain worst pick ever even worse than your niners bet.

I don't know shit about basketball, read the first post in this thread. I just wanted to see how fading the public did over the course of a few plays. I didn't "bet against a team", I merely tracked it.

Bad idea to keep track of this publicly, every pick will come under scrutiny. I forgot that people can't experiment or try new things around here without wiseasses like you raising hell.

I'll just keep track of basketball away from the board. Sorry for trying to open up discussion on my weak sport. I'll figure it out on my own.

[Tsoprano]

I like Dave, but his problem exists from even thinking who the Public's on. I NEVER let that come to find, it's what im on that counts. For all I know, my bets are being bet on by 1% of the public, or 99% of the public...I dont care. Im going to either win or lose in the long haul with what I want to bet on.

You can't over analyze anything in this game.

[pat venditto]

He's playing rigged theories games aren't rigged. Over analyzes so mcuh i say it everytime in his threads.Picks the wrong side,

[VegasDave]

Although Pat's response comes off strong, I actually think it's on point.

You can't fade hot teams in NBA.

Big difference T. There is a big difference between saying "You can't fade hot teams in the NBA" and calling me an idiot for trying new things.

[VegasDave]

He's playing rigged theories games aren't rigged. Over analyzes so mcuh i say it everytime in his threads.Picks the wrong side,

I'll address this in my video tomorrow, I don't believe games are fixed. You are a braindead drone. You need to focus on your own capping and stop obsessing over mine.

[Tsoprano]

Big difference T. There is a big difference between saying "You can't fade hot teams in the NBA" and calling me an idiot for trying new things.

Definitely, im agreeing with his post, but not necessarily the way it was expressed.

[pat venditto]

My capping is fine i will continue to win if you want to win you can follow my plays in my thread. If you are betting a team solely because there is only 20% of the action on that side means you believe that has a factor meaning you think games are rigged which makes you an idiot.

[VegasDave]

I like Dave, but his problem exists from even thinking who the Public's on. I NEVER let that come to find, it's what im on that counts. For all I know, my bets are being bet on by 1% of the public, or 99% of the public...I dont care. Im going to either win or lose in the long haul with what I want to bet on.

You can't over analyze anything in this game.

T, I was only trying it. When it comes to football, hockey, and baseball I know the sports well enough to cap them myself, and let the public be damned in most cases. On a sport I know nothing about, I just wanted to see how this works. Like I said, clearly a mistake posting the results publicly, I'll just have to make notes away from the forum.

You KNOW basketball, and you know how to cap it, so of course you shouldn't care what the public thinks. I respect you for that.

[flyingillini]

Davey,

Who cares what anyone thinks of you. You writing about it gives them attention. Stick to your Philosophical picks and everything will be A-ok.

[VegasDave]

My capping is fine i will continue to win if you want to win you can follow my plays in my thread. If you are betting a team solely because there is only 20% of the action on that side means you believe that has a factor meaning you think games are rigged which makes you an idiot.

LOL, like I said, I will explain this in my video. For the last time, quit jumping to conclusions. I do not believe games are rigged.