Is Tony Dungy on something????

[donjuan]

But the game was decided when that idiot Dungy went for it on 4th down & 1 with the game tied. Just punt the damn thing and let your defense stop em. Then he compounds the mistake going for it again with the greatest PK standing right next to him.

Why do you keep repeating this nonsense? Your advice was probably relevant in 1920 when scores were low and field position was paramount. Not so in the modern game.

[Dark Horse]

Why is it that most people are so anti-analytical about sports. These are easy decisions to go for it if you run the numbers. Statisticians have and they agree. They also figured out that coaches don't go for it anywhere near often enough but perhaps coaches don't want to go against conventional wisdom because if it doesn't work on that particular occasion, silly fans like you and others in this thread will complain. Coaches value job security more than actually giving their team the best chance to win.

Do the statisticians take the opponent into account? Titans are an excellent defensive team, and therefore above average in stopping 4th downs. But offensively they are limited when pinned against their own goal line.

[donjuan]

Do the statisticians take the opponent into account? Titans are an excellent defensive team, and therefore above average in stopping 4th downs. But offensively they are limited when pinned against their own goal line.

Yes. How often do you think the Titans stop the Colts on 4th and 1? >25%? If so, feel free to donate to Bodog Live.

[pat venditto]

donjuan where is the best place to bet nba sides and ml's?

[donjuan]

donjuan where is the best place to bet nba sides and ml's?

Kind of a vague question. Depends what you are trying to do and how much you are looking to bet.

[Legend4Aday]

These are easy decisions to go for it if you run the numbers[...]coaches don't go for it anywhere near often enough[...]because if it doesn't work on that particular occasion, silly fans like you and others in this thread will complain. Coaches value job security more than actually giving their team the best chance to win.

Agree 100%, and besides peyton manning had his team strolling down the field when it became 4th and 1...

[pat venditto]

$500 max

[Dark Horse]

Yes. How often do you think the Titans stop the Colts on 4th and 1? >25%? If so, feel free to donate to Bodog Live.

There was one 4th and 1 and one 4th and longer. They stopped them 2 out of 2 times.

And the Colts, if I remember correctly, stopped the Titans 0 out of 1 time on 4th down. That was for a TD.

Had they missed they would have the Colts at their own 1 yard line. That's a good trade. It is not a good trade to give the opponent the ball back at midfield.

Does field position factor into your numbers?

[donjuan]

If you have an account, SIA is probably the best, especially if you are just trying to bet off market numbers. If you are trying to beat the market, then Matchbook is probably your best route.

[donjuan]

There was one 4th and 1 and one 4th and longer. They stopped them 2 out of 2 times.

Results oriented much?

Had they missed they would have the Colts at their own 1 yard line. That's a good trade. It is not a good trade to give the opponent the ball back at midfield.

As opposed to gaining 30-40 yards with a punt, which could of course be blocked. Anyway, there are models out there that tell you the right decision. Check it out.

[whoatommy]

On 3rd and 2 if you know you'll go for it on 4th why not do a high percentage play on third or play two downs for 2 yards...going for it at mid field with a tie score in the third was stupid

+1

Why did he call for a deep pass on 3rd and 2?

[donjuan]

Why did he call for a deep pass on 3rd and 2?

Metagame considerations.

[daggerkobe]

This isn't pre-2004. His leg isn't as strong anymore.

Hmmm.... I wonder who made a 52 yarder last night which would've been good from 57. Oh yeah, a washed up kicker whose leg isn't "strong anymore."