A teaser worth playing Sunday

[outdrawed]

donjuan is my new favorite poster. He's the only guy making any sort of sense in this thread. Teasing from 7.5 to 13.5? Yikes.

[LT Profits]

winless home dogs at 0-5 or worse have in fact been over 60% ATS since 1985.

these sorts of things were easy money years ago. they are factored into the line today.

26-17, 60.5% ATS since 2000, so not really a fall-off.

[LT Profits]

donjuan is my new favorite poster. He's the only guy making any sort of sense in this thread. Teasing from 7.5 to 13.5? Yikes.

Are you new here?

donjuan, durito and Ganch have been three of the sharpest minds here for a long time.

[SBR Lou]

I do respect the opinions of those guys, and I'm well aware of the "wise guy" teaser subsets, but I just can't bring myself to submit to Baltimore winning this game. They may, but if they do, it's going to be on a last minute field goal and in what I consider to be one of the most low scoring games all weekend, I personally think Oakland with 13.5 is a better fit for the other leg.

I understand the numbers, but I'm just not going to listen to them. It's that simple, I know you'll say even if I win I'm just getting lucky, but I'd rather be lucky (and right) that particular day, then win over the long-term when I don't even play teasers regularly.

Good luck.

[outdrawed]

Are you new here?

donjuan, durito and Ganch have been three of the sharpest minds here for a long time.

Well, you were my favorite poster last season. I don't particularly remember don too much, but he clearly knows his stuff.

[outdrawed]

I do respect the opinions of those guys, and I'm well aware of the "wise guy" teaser subsets, but I just can't bring myself to submit to Baltimore winning this game. They may, but if they do, it's going to be on a last minute field goal and in what I consider to be one of the most low scoring games all weekend, I personally think Oakland with 13.5 is a better fit for the other leg.

I understand the numbers, but I'm just not going to listen to them. It's that simple, I know you'll say even if I win I'm just getting lucky, but I'd rather be lucky (and right) that particular day, then win over the long-term when I don't even play teasers regularly.

Good luck.

So you think that Oakland will lose between 8-13 points >20% of the time? That's approximately what you're saying with your bet. I'd give 4-1 on that in a heartbeat.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well, he refuses to look at it from a long term perspective but from his own logic, there was no sense in teasing the Raiders either. From what he said alone (that the Raiders/Ravens game would be decided by a field goal), it would have been a far sharper play to tease the Ravens down to 2.5 or bet the Raiders ATS straight or on a parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

Crazy you need to quit posting.

[daggerkobe]

Has anyone ever posted a winning teaser on this site?

Crazy's a good dude but he can never admit when he's wrong.