A teaser worth playing Sunday

[SBR Lou]

No write up, no hoopla. Play it or don't, the choice is yours.

6pt teaser
Raiders +13.5
Redskins -1.5

Good luck this weekend gents.

[donjuan]

Raiders +13.5

The worst teaser leg possible.

[dwaechte]

The worst teaser leg possible.

A bit of an exaggeration, but yes, Balt -1.5 would be much better.

[SBR Lou]

The worst teaser leg possible.

I don't know that they'll be 13 pts the entire game. Better to tease the dog here because they can easily win by a field goal. Lot of cushion either way.

[Justin7]

Most people know what "wise-guy" teasers are. This is on the other end of the spectrum.

No disrespect here, but if you play opposite sides in the game, some bookmakers call that a "dumb-guy" teaser, since it is an anti-correlated parlay. You'd need to get about +160 on a 2-team teaser to break even on this.

[Justin7]

Ok, I'm the dumb-guy. I can't read, and convinced myself that those were teams in the same game. So disregard what I said.

An example of a "dumb-guy" teaser would be Was-1x and Det +13x (since they are in the same game).

[donjuan]

A bit of an exaggeration

It's not an exaggeration. I'd love to hear of a worse subset for teasers than 7.5 pt underdogs. Only 10.5 comes even close.

[donjuan]

I don't know that they'll be 13 pts the entire game. Better to tease the dog here because they can easily win by a field goal. Lot of cushion either way.

Then you should probably consider betting a large portion of your net worth on the under.

[SBR Lou]

It's not an exaggeration. I'd love to hear of a worse subset for teasers than 7.5 pt underdogs. Only 10.5 comes even close.

I just don't think the Ravens winning straight up is safe enough for this teaser, regardless of the YTD of these "wise guy" teasers off the -7.5 lines as this is. And instead of playing it straight up, I think it's the next best tease on the board, as this week seems kind of dried up.

I did consider Ravens -1.5, but I think that play would be rolling the dice more regardless of the conventional wisdom of teasing -7.5 down..

[dwaechte]

It's not an exaggeration. I'd love to hear of a worse subset for teasers than 7.5 pt underdogs. Only 10.5 comes even close.

For NFL games I guess. College provides lots of worse opportunities.

But, I was mostly referring to the fact that the total for this game is sitting around 35, making any underdog teaser on this game far from the worst possible.

[donjuan]

College provides lots of worse opportunities.

While the low total is good, it's still comes nowhere near making up for teasing a 7.5 pt dog. And as for college, do you have any that are worse than 7.5 pt dogs besides 13.5 pt favs, 16.5 pt favs and 10.5 pt dogs?

[pavyracer]

Lions may win outright. Redskins are a winless team's best gift. Ask the Rams.

[donjuan]

I just don't think the Ravens winning straight up is safe enough for this teaser, regardless of the YTD of these "wise guy" teasers off the -7.5 lines as this is. And instead of playing it straight up, I think it's the next best tease on the board, as this week seems kind of dried up.

I did consider Ravens -1.5, but I think that play would be rolling the dice more regardless of the conventional wisdom of teasing -7.5 down..

It's not about conventional wisdom. It's about basic math. You are teasing across a bunch of numbers that are basically worthless. If your logic about unders and the "lack of safety" holds true, then you should be massively on the under and on the Raiders +7.5. Would you take a 12 pt dog and buy a half pt for 10 cents?

[donjuan]

Lions may win outright. Redskins are a winless team's best gift. Ask the Rams.

Every team on the board "may win outright". Do you realize what a meaningless and idiotic phrase that is?

[rm18]

if you tease Oakland over the 14 it would actually be a good play

[pavyracer]

Every team on the board "may win outright". Do you realize what a meaningless and idiotic phrase that is?

I will never bet money against a winless home dog. You go waste your money on the lowly Redskins genius.

[dwaechte]

While the low total is good, it's still comes nowhere near making up for teasing a 7.5 pt dog. And as for college, do you have any that are worse than 7.5 pt dogs besides 13.5 pt favs, 16.5 pt favs and 10.5 pt dogs?

I don't have any data in front of me, but I was assuming almost any 35+ favs would be worse. Judging by your response I'm guessing I was wrong on that.

[durito]

Even the washington leg is probably not +EV (at -110 on 2 teamer).

[SBR Lou]

Even the washington leg is probably not +EV (at -110 on 2 teamer).

Thanks for your insight, and best of luck tomorrow.

[donjuan]

I will never bet money against a winless home dog. You go waste your money on the lowly Redskins genius.

I have bets on the Skins, although not at -7.5. Anyway, that has little to do with the inane comment you made.

[rm18]

Change to a 7 point tease and go New England and Oakland. I like teasing to 14.5, there was actually one game last year Oakland/Tennessee that i double teased to -2.5 and +14.5

[donjuan]

Even the washington leg is probably not +EV (at -110 on 2 teamer).

Meh. I disagree with this, mostly because even though road faves are historically a poor subset, it's my belief that the market is more efficient than it used to be.

[donjuan]

Change to a 7 point tease and go New England and Oakland. I like teasing to 14.5, there was actually one game last year Oakland/Tennessee that i double teased to -2.5 and +14.5

----->

No disrespect here, but if you play opposite sides in the game, some bookmakers call that a "dumb-guy" teaser, since it is an anti-correlated parlay.

[pavyracer]

I have bets on the Skins, although not at -7.5. Anyway, that has little to do with the inane comment you made.

I would not bet against Pat Venditto's lock of the year. Only an eccentric bettor will defy conventional wisdom and fade Patty.

[durito]

Meh. I disagree with this, mostly because even though road faves are historically a poor subset, it's my belief that the market is more efficient than it used to be.

probably

i still play them. just not at -110.

[rm18]

----->

I understand this, I teased Tennessee -2.5 with other games, and Oakland +14.5 with other games I get that you should not pout them together

[durito]

winless home dogs at 0-5 or worse have in fact been over 60% ATS since 1985.

these sorts of things were easy money years ago. they are factored into the line today.

[bostonbruins]

Here's mine, can't lose..

7 Point Teaser (5 Teams) 10/26/08 00:47 ET
Result: Pending
Texans(Houston) -2
Bills(Buffalo) +6
Rams(StLouis) +14.5
Redskins(Washington) -0.5
49ers(SanFrancisco) +1.5

[durito]

crossing 0 is definitely a sharp play

[purecarnagge]

Here's mine, can't lose..

7 Point Teaser (5 Teams) 10/26/08 00:47 ET
Result: Pending
Texans(Houston) -2
Bills(Buffalo) +6
Rams(StLouis) +14.5
Redskins(Washington) -0.5
49ers(SanFrancisco) +1.5

3 teams max on teasers otherwise your just ****ing yourself

[Kingctb27]

I actually like Cleveland +13.

[Justin7]

3 teams max on teasers otherwise your just ****ing yourself

You're kidding, right?

Do I need to do a video on teaser EV as a function of number of legs?

[daggerkobe]

teasers are a waste of money.

[durito]

teasers are a waste of money.

[colt29]

It's not about conventional wisdom. It's about basic math. You are teasing across a bunch of numbers that are basically worthless. If your logic about unders and the "lack of safety" holds true, then you should be massively on the under and on the Raiders +7.5. Would you take a 12 pt dog and buy a half pt for 10 cents?

should quote the Billy madison. we are all dumber from that stupid bet. teasers r for people that cant bet. hilarious