World Series (series price) Lets see who is sharp.

[Nicky Santoro]

Ok boys, we will now find out who here are the sharp ones, and who here are not.. we'll see who can spot the value and who can't.. I will make a series price (assuming TB beat Bos) and give me your pick now.. and when the real series price comes out, i will pull this thread up again and see who bet the value, and who ended up betting against the line.. We'll see now who knows how to spot a weak line..


Series Price. Best of 7


Tampa Bay -165
Philadelphia +145


What is the play?

[Richkas]

I would take Philly even if they were chalk.

[Sinister Cat]

Tampa Bay

[pico]

[firedawg]

rays

[smitch124]

I would take Rays in exactly 4 and exactly 5...

[Nicky Santoro]

i noticed alot of posters are scared to answer here.. richie, you're the only philly so far.. and 4 tb's.. and i am including pico editing his pick after he saw 2 TB's. lol..
richie, if philly gets the value here, you will get triple the respect now when you post a play on your vid..

where is rjt, donny and durito.. i want them to answer. i think they are scared.. i think people are all waiting to hear their pick.. lol


come on boys, i want some picks.. i believe in you boys.. dont be scared.. we wont think any diferent of you.. it's not easy.. show me some guts.. i'll be more impressed if you answer, than avoid this..

[darrell74]

I'm guessing, this Saturday, Shields beats Myers in game #1.

Why?
Tonight, Rays take care of Bosox.
Shields is better than, Myers.

However, I'm also guessing that they won't have game #2 until Monday.
Garza vs. Hamels. Hamels wins series tied 1-1

Game #3 Wed in Philly
Sonnanstine vs. (a crappy pitcher to be named that will get shelled)
2-1 Rays

Game #4 Thursday
Kazmir vs. (a shitty pitcher to be named that will get yanked by the third)
3-1 Rays

Game #5 Sunday night in Philly
Shields vs. Hamels Hamels edges it out and it goes to St. Petersberg

Game #6
Sonnanstine vs. Myers
Rays win in 6 games
MVP canidates:
Iwamura (for lead off work)
Upton (for sparking offense)
Longoria (might get some power, has potential, for it)
Kazmir (filthy heat)
Sonnanstine (paint corners, and being a technician)

[bbyhill]

Phillies

[rjt721]

Phillies at that price.

I'm projecting TB -145 for the series if they meet Philly.

[donjuan]

You realize you can derive a number from the numbers already out there right? I'm not going to give you my fair value but 5 Dimes is implying a fair value of ~±130 so based on that Philly +145 would be the right bet.

[Nicky Santoro]

how good are my lines, boys? 8 bets so far. .and dead even action.. 4 phillies, 4 rays so far.. i am cleaning up on the vig here..
wtf picoman, that's your 3rd edit.. you had TB, then you erased it to nothing..

no more editing allowed..

[donjuan]

That said I wouldn't exactly rely on the 5 Dimes futures to be perfectly efficient.

[Tsoprano]

Rays, but not 100% yet on it.

[CaneDawg]

rays

[Nicky Santoro]

You realize you can derive a number from the numbers already out there right? I'm not going to give you my fair value but 5 Dimes is implying a fair value of ~±130 so based on that Philly +145 would be the right bet.

donny, if the RAYS tonight win 13-2.. do you think they will only be a -130 fav over PHILLY.. who the hell is going to wanna go against a team that just smoked the champs.. it's all about getting even action for the books, and if TB is this hot, the whole world will be on TB at -130.. no one will be on philly, that's for sure..

remember how lakers line for series was -200 and i said BOS should be favored.. and everyone still bet LAL.. and BOS win in 5.. i even said before series that BOS should be fav, but no way they can do this because books would not have balanced action. the whole world were on LAL..

So far, 6 TB.. and 4 PHILLY.

[fiveteamer]

Nicky, if Panic does not come back by Sunday, can you put me on a payment plan?

Thanks.

[donjuan]

it's all about getting even action for the books

Maybe it was for you as an illegal street bookie, but there is ample evidence that this is not true for the offshore industry.

remember how lakers line for series was -200 and i said BOS should be favored.. and everyone still bet LAL.. and BOS win in 5.. i even said, BOS should have been fav, but no way they can do this because books would not have balanced action. the whole world were on LAL..

You are clueless about interpreting information and how that relates to expected value. Based on all available information going into the series, the Lakers should have been favored. Lines like that are not off by >13%.

[betplom]

Nicky, if Panic does not come back by Sunday, can you put me on a payment plan?

Thanks.

fiver, I'll vouch for you, I know where you work and that you like to put in as many hours as possible, tacos must make you sick by now.

[ryanXL977]

first of all hammels starts game 1, not myers. second of all, you guys have discounted the phils all year long when some peopple told you they would win the nl.

thirdly, if the price is phily+145, i will take it
if its closer to even, id pick tb but i wont be betting

[Nicky Santoro]

no problem fiver.

donny, you have no idea what you are saying.. only reason lal were favored because IT'S THE FREAKIN LAKERS.. the name lakers.. people love cheering for Kobe and the lakers.. boston gave them the beating of their life.. remember the nice 40 pt blowout in the last game.. yeah, that's a -200 fav.. sure... lol

donny, you dont know anything about this business.. bos had best team in NBA from day 1 and should have been a -125 to -135 fav. that was the real line.. they also had home court, which is huuuuge.. donny, stop watching jjgold vids and start watching justin vids.. you need to pay attention more and learn.. jj vids are not helping you..

if books made BOS -130 in series, and LAL won, 22 books would have gone bankrupt. books were protecting themselves..

[LT Profits]

I would take Phils +145 if I didn't already have them at +770. That said, I think line will be lower, more like Tampa Bay -150/Philadelphia +130.

[Nicky Santoro]

6 phils... 6 tb bets...

dead even action...

[CaneDawg]

I would take Phils +145 if I didn't already have them at +770. That said, I think line will be lower, more like Tampa Bay -150/Philadelphia +130.

Good Luck LT

[pico]

nicky, can you book me some action with those odds?

[yisman]

Philly would be the value in that situation.

[Nicky Santoro]

nicky, can you book me some action with those odds?

no of course.... are you nuts?

[donjuan]

donny, you have no idea what you are saying.. only reason lal were favored because IT'S THE FREAKIN LAKERS.. the name lakers.. people love cheering for Kobe and the lakers.. boston gave them the beating of their life.. remember the nice 40 pt blowout in the last game.. yeah, that's a -200 fav.. sure... lol

donny, you dont know anything about this business.. bos had best team in NBA from day 1 and should have been a -125 to -135 fav. that was the real line.. they also had home court, which is huuuuge.. donny, stop watching jjgold vids and start watching justin vids.. you need to pay attention more and learn.. jj vids are not helping you..

if books made BOS -130 in series, and LAL won, 22 books would have gone bankrupt. books were protecting themselves..

You really don't understand the concept of weak-form efficient markets. That's OK as all I do is watch my bankroll grow while you complain about going broke.

[Nicky Santoro]

you're right donny, i am broke from gambling.. i am down big.. how did you know? donny, i am looking for a roommate to help me pay the rent. can you send me a loan, i am good for it... i bet you were one of those guys that bet lakers -200..lol

did donny bet lakers in series at -200?

YES -420
NO +340

__________

Will donny boy deny he bet lakers and come back and say, he bet celtics?

YES -155
NO +135

_________



pico,

i will give you a line if you want.. or anyone.. but i dont want to gamble against my fellow poster friends.... I will send funds to matchy if you want... but i make my own line (new line)... and 20 cent line.. but you must bet it and tell me how much beforehand.. and stick to it.. donny, you in? i'd love to book your action, donny.. it'd be a dream of mine.. guys like you, i'd pay anything to have customers like you.. they are rare..

[fiveteamer]

Nicky, you don't want guys with software taking advantage of your lines.

When the computer says bet, these guys bet, and they never lose.

Nicky, do not take computer guys action. bad move.

[donjuan]

donny, you in? i'd love to book your action, donny.. it'd be a dream of mine.. guys like you, i'd pay anything to have customers like you.. they are rare..

What are your limits?

[Nicky Santoro]

fiver, he'll never beat me to a #... i am quicker than he, trust me.. and if he ever does beat me more than 2 times in a row (which he won't).. then i boot him.. i have been in this biz long enough fiver.. fiver, i am no slouch..


donny, you name it.. are you talking about betting the WS series price, OR to bet with me? you cant bet with me cause i dont know you.. it wouldn't work out.. but as for WS series.. i'll take whatever you want...

i make new line.. 20 cent line.. any amount you want.. BUT... and a big BUT.. you MUST place the bet.. you cannot lay off..

send the money to matchy..

will donny take the bet?

NO -340
YES +280

[daggerkobe]

Phils -140/Rays
Red Sox -170/Phils

[fiveteamer]

NO for the max.

[donjuan]

So let me get this straight:

You already have a reasonable idea of what I think fair value is. You get to make a 20c line based off this info and I have to not only bet into that line but have to do it at Matchbook where I would pay commission? Are you serious or just stupid?

However, if you are putting up the line of -165/+145 that you quoted in your original post and continued to praise yourself for getting balanced imaginary action on it, I will match it for as much as you put up if no one else beats me to the punch.