SF Giants (Vogelsong) -120 over Arizona (Saunders) is my play tonight

onacloud · 05-29-12, 01:31 PM

I'm on it as well

No coincidences · 05-29-12, 01:54 PM

So with all that being said, why are the Giants only -120?

stevenash · 05-29-12, 01:55 PM

^
Probably because SF doesn't have a reputation of murdering the ball.

EVPlus · 05-29-12, 02:35 PM

BOL

CollegeOverUnder · 05-29-12, 02:53 PM

Liking the Giants also

EXhoosier10 · 05-29-12, 03:08 PM

Steve, I still don't understand why you pull up batter v. pitcher stats every time you look at a game. Out of all that guys who have studied this stuff, none have found any significant correlation between previous AB's to future AB's, ESPECIALLY after < 10 ABs.

Each time you throw in the "even though the sample size is not huge" part, but then you factor it into your capping by saying "against a mediocre pitcher, that the Giants can hit."

In reality, there has been no data to prove that the Giants will fare any better than their previous career/3yr avg/whatever they have in their past 500+ ABs.

I'm not saying you don't make good plays, but unless you know more than others, I don't understand why you keep bringing up Batter v. pitcher stuff. If you'd like, I can find some research on the topic for you.

MileHigh_Broncos · 05-29-12, 03:09 PM

Vogelsong 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in four career starts versus the Diamondbacks.

Saunders is 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA in five career starts against the NL West rivals.

I got the d-backs tho, go figure.

I guess I'm still holding out that vogelsong retracts back to his career 4.49ERA and 1.44 WHIP... the d-backs bats continue/return to be on fire tonight! 2-11 with RISP last night... yuk.

CHR1S · 05-29-12, 03:13 PM

stevenash, from what site did you get that [Pitcher vs. Other team] stats?

Monitor-Tan · 05-29-12, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by hirania

I work as an oddsmaker and analyst in one of the largest bookmakers in the market. I have excellent results in selecting American sports, especially NBA and MLB. I coordinate trends of the courses and each day I have a lot of information that reaches me more or less confidence. As an employee of bookmakers a managerial position I have different access to fix matches.

Persons interested in my carefully selected tips should transfer money in my account in PayPal, Neteller, Skrill (Moneybokers).

Signup includes 2-3 tips of carefully selected each day. The cost of subscription is 50 $ per week or 150 $ per month. I give sports betting a few hours before the start of matches.

You can pay: PayPal, Moneybookers, Neteller

Contact: sportanalyst[]hushmail . com

Is this a joke..

Bluedragon · 05-29-12, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by hirania

I work as an oddsmaker and analyst in one of the largest bookmakers in the market. I have excellent results in selecting American sports, especially NBA and MLB. I coordinate trends of the courses and each day I have a lot of information that reaches me more or less confidence. As an employee of bookmakers a managerial position I have different access to fix matches.

Persons interested in my carefully selected tips should transfer money in my account in PayPal, Neteller, Skrill (Moneybokers).

Signup includes 2-3 tips of carefully selected each day. The cost of subscription is 50 $ per week or 150 $ per month. I give sports betting a few hours before the start of matches.

You can pay: PayPal, Moneybookers, Neteller

Contact: sportanalyst[]hushmail . com

can i just give you my bank details and you can withdraw direct from my account as you send me tips? easier that way...

vaas187 · 05-29-12, 03:35 PM

shut the **** up you dweeb

stevenash · 05-29-12, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Steve, I still don't understand why you pull up batter v. pitcher stats every time you look at a game. Out of all that guys who have studied this stuff, none have found any significant correlation between previous AB's to future AB's, ESPECIALLY after < 10 ABs.

Each time you throw in the "even though the sample size is not huge" part, but then you factor it into your capping by saying "against a mediocre pitcher, that the Giants can hit."

In reality, there has been no data to prove that the Giants will fare any better than their previous career/3yr avg/whatever they have in their past 500+ ABs.

I'm not saying you don't make good plays, but unless you know more than others, I don't understand why you keep bringing up Batter v. pitcher stuff. If you'd like, I can find some research on the topic for you.

EX, you know I love you buddy, and I do get your point, I use that data because I get a feel of what a collective unit can do based on what they have done in the past. Of course there are adjustments made, but if three hitters in the same line up has had success against a particular pitcher, I have found they will continue to have success, not always, but usually.

Let me cite an example, you know I do the fantasy baseball thing well, last night I used Kelly Johnson at 2B.
Now, Kelly Johnson is a nice second baseman, better than average, but when you think 2B, you think Phillips, Cano, Pedroia (when healthy) Kinsler........ before you consider Kelly Johnson, right?

Tommy Hunter versus Kelly Johnson
KJ is 6 for 4 lifetime v. Hunter, 3 HR 5 RBI.
Knowing this going in, why wouldn't one use Kelly Johnson at 2B, right?

How'd Johnson do last night against Tommy Hunter?

Blue Jays 6-2 Orioles (May 28, 2012) Box Score - ESPN

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320528114&teams=baltimore-orioles-vs-toronto-blue-jays

Box score for the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB game from May 28, 2012 on ESPN. Includes all pitching and batting stats.

He had a *monster* game.
He was the difference between chump change for me last night and a decent 125 dollar cash.

Now, for example, if you have a Markakis, Adam Jones, and say, a JJ Hardy all with a .350 plus lifetime average 15+ AB's, against say a Masterson or somebody, why wouldn't you want to use Baltimore, considering the O's don't send out a gas can (and a few other factors)

Point being, the data I use is not the be all, end all in my final 'capping decision, but I do consider it.

stevenash · 05-29-12, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Monitor-Tan

Is this a joke..

I just reported him.
I can pick losers by myself and you don't have to pay for them.

Is Shari on?

vaas187 · 05-29-12, 03:42 PM

who cares what the line is...how many ******* times have they pushed a line to -200 or something stupid and the team gets completely destroyed. lines dont mean shit, even line movement doesnt mean shit.

EVPlus · 05-29-12, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by MileHigh_Broncos

Vogelsong 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in four career starts versus the Diamondbacks.

Saunders is 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA in five career starts against the NL West rivals.

I got the d-backs tho, go figure.

I guess I'm still holding out that vogelsong retracts back to his career 4.49ERA and 1.44 WHIP... the d-backs bats continue/return to be on fire tonight! 2-11 with RISP last night... yuk.

Alot has been made of the regression analysis, lately. I don't know if this coincides with aznbluff's thread in this forum. Don't get me wrong - regression to the mean happens. The hard part is knowing when. Having said all that, the last I checked about 70% of ML is on the Giants, yet the line has been going down...And just like regression, RLMs are not always a sure thing in and of itself.

stevenash · 05-29-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

Alot has been made of the regression analysis, lately. I don't know if this coincides with aznbluff's thread in this forum. Don't get me wrong - regression to the mean happens. The hard part is knowing when. Having said all that, the last I checked about 70% of ML is on the Giants, yet the line has been going down...And just like regression, RLMs are not always a sure thing in and of itself.

Part of what you are saying is why I am using Arieta and Baltimore tonight.
I'll explain later, I got to get in some fantasy lineups, I like SF and Orioles tonight, many might miss why I like the O's too, but I do *in this spot*

a4u2fear · 05-29-12, 04:23 PM

thanks Steve, lets get em!

Smutbucket · 05-29-12, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

Alot has been made of the regression analysis, lately. I don't know if this coincides with aznbluff's thread in this forum. Don't get me wrong - regression to the mean happens. The hard part is knowing when. Having said all that, the last I checked about 70% of ML is on the Giants, yet the line has been going down...And just like regression, RLMs are not always a sure thing in and of itself.

In my opinion, Moving Line is only an attempt to balance the books and minimize losses. now just because 70% (in certain books) are on a certain team doesnt mean, there is more money on a certain team than the other. This is common sense yet people continue to "stress" "question" "ponder" over "line movements" or atleast their interpetations of them.

I agree with vaaas . you "interpeted RLM" DONT MEAN SHIT!

and I like this pick steve nash. and I think past Batter vs Pitcher performance is a great way to see how certain batters and hitters matchup against each other.

lakerboy · 05-29-12, 04:44 PM

On other side. Zona my biggest mlb play tonight. Gl.

EVPlus · 05-29-12, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

In my opinion, Moving Line is only an attempt to balance the books and minimize losses. now just because 70% (in certain books) are on a certain team doesnt mean, there is more money on a certain team than the other. This is common sense yet people continue to "stress" "question" "ponder" over "line movements" or atleast their interpetations of them.

I agree with vaaas . you "interpeted RLM" DONT MEAN SHIT!

and I like this pick steve nash. and I think past Batter vs Pitcher performance is a great way to see how certain batters and hitters matchup against each other.

There's no need to be a dick about it. I specifically stated "RLMs are not always a sure thing in and of itself."

What that means (if you're not stoned right now and somewhat logical) is that sometimes RLMs can and should be factored into the capping and other times it should be ignored.

There...straightforward enough for you...?

Now put the bong down and working on your reading comprehension.

And btw, aren't you the one going through a cold streak...? So who are you to lecture anyone regarding what to look at and what to ignore in a given situation...?

Br0nxer · 05-29-12, 08:11 PM

got the dbacks in a 3 teamer

angels ML
Spurs ML

Smutbucket · 05-29-12, 10:36 PM

How was I being a dick? I gave you my opinion. you obviously have strong opinions about marijuana. maybe you should smoke a bit and relax and then maybe you wouldnt get so worked up over someone else opinion, although maybe in your mind that would be you just being "illogical"
keep reguritating bullshit you learned from the media, you believe smoking marijuana kills braincells dont you?

Brock Landers · 05-29-12, 10:38 PM

SF trying to score runs is like pulling fukking teeth

bigant78 · 05-29-12, 10:42 PM

brock it is depressing watching the giants. i got them as well and took the chance on the runline.

Smutbucket · 05-29-12, 10:46 PM

and honestly Im getting really freaking tired of people talking about RLM's like it has an effect in the game.

CAUSE and EFFECT people!

I may be on a cold streak but I atleast understand what factors have effect on games, and no amount of public perception will change it.

EVPlus · 05-29-12, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

How was I being a dick? I gave you my opinion. you obviously have strong opinions about marijuana. maybe you should smoke a bit and relax and then maybe you wouldnt get so worked up over someone else opinion, although maybe in your mind that would be you just being "illogical"
keep reguritating bullshit you learned from the media, you believe smoking marijuana kills braincells dont you?

You were out of line by misinterpreting what I stated calling it bull shit rather than trying to have a civil discussion.

And I happen to know plenty of folks who recreationally 420. I also believe it has important medical applications such as cancer patients.

It's dumb pot heads that I have zero tolerance for. This joke of a rebuttal of yours just confirms that.

And if you're naive enough to believe that line movements should never ever be considered before pulling the trigger, it won't surprise me if I see another thread from you down the road about how you've gone cold and I wish you a long life of being a break-even bettor.

Line movements can be telling in certain situations; in others, it's just white noise.

Have another hit and enjoy your myopic existence.

Smutbucket · 05-29-12, 11:00 PM

yes obviously you can tell everything about my existence from the fact that my status says "smoke weed everyday" and my opinion on RLM's.....

get a grip dude....

so much hate on these forums its funny....people have an opinion and someone else has a different one and they start trying to attack anything they can about them, its hilarious.....

people need to lighten up...

literally, your being REDICULOUS at this point....

EVPlus · 05-29-12, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

and honestly Im getting really freaking tired of people talking about RLM's like it has an effect in the game.

CAUSE and EFFECT people!

I may be on a cold streak but I atleast understand what factors have effect on games, and no amount of public perception will change it.

Your interpretation is too black and white. There are shades of gray. Those who blindly chase steam or RLMs are mistaken. And those who flat out deny their occasional significance are just as mistaken.

EVPlus · 05-29-12, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

yes obviously you can tell everything about my existence from the fact that my status says "smoke weed everyday" and my opinion on RLM's.....

get a grip dude....

so much hate on these forums its funny....people have an opinion and someone else has a different one and they start trying to attack anything they can about them, its hilarious.....

people need to lighten up...

literally, your being REDICULOUS at this point....

Your hypocrisy is amusing and a little sad. As I stated, you could've disputed what I stated about line movements in a civil tone. Yet you didn't. And now, here you are, back peddaling and trying to accuse me of the very characteristic which you displayed.

And I didn't just attack anything about you. I pegged you as the narrow-minded type of pot smoker. Each of your subsequent posts just confirms that. And btw, shouldn't you be the one that's taking all this in stride if you're the one toking up...?

Cheer up. It's still a 1-run game. Giants can win this one and you can feel good about yourself in your myopic bliss.

p.s. The word is spelled ridiculous with an "i". So if you choose to ignore a discussion on line movments, at least you did get a lesson in spelling.

CollegeOverUnder · 05-29-12, 11:17 PM

Lets go Giants I'm sweating my balls off in this game right now!

Brock Landers · 05-29-12, 11:23 PM

incredible they only score 1 fukking run there. Fukking terrible

lakerboy · 05-29-12, 11:24 PM

dbacks got this

CollegeOverUnder · 05-29-12, 11:49 PM

bottom of the 8th lets go Giants

ebelisle22 · 05-29-12, 11:55 PM

i will absolutely lose it if they dont get a run here.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS CAREER STATISTICS VS. RYAN VOGELSONG
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Blanco	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.200	.200	.200	.400
Willie Bloomquist	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667
Geoff Blum	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	1.000	.000	1.000
Stephen Drew	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Paul Goldschmidt	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	.167	.000	.167
Aaron Hill	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Miguel Montero	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.333	.333	.333	.667
Lyle Overbay	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	6	.100	.286	.100	.386
Gerardo Parra	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	.400	.400	.600	1.000
Ryan Roberts	8	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	.125	.222	.500	.722
Justin Upton	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	.167	.375	.167	.542
Chris Young	8	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	.125	.222	.500	.722
Totals	65	13	1	0	2	4	8	21	.200	.293	.308	.601

Aubrey Huff	27	26	11	0	0	1	1	2	.423	.444	.423	.868	0	0	0
Melky Cabrera	21	17	5	1	0	1	3	3	.294	.400	.353	.753	1	1	0
Ryan Theriot	11	9	6	1	0	0	2	0	.667	.727	.778	1.505	0	0	0
Gregor Blanco	6	6	2	0	0	3	0	2	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Brett Pill	6	6	2	0	1	2	0	0	.333	.333	.833	1.167	0	0	0
Joaquin Arias	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.400	.400	.800	0	0	0
Matt Cain	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0
Brandon Belt	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	.750	.750	.750	1.500	0	0	0
Brandon Crawford	3	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	.500	.667	1.000	1.667	0	1	0
Angel Pagan	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Buster Posey	3	2	1	0	1	2	1	0	.500	.667	2.000	2.667	0	0	1
Hector Sanchez	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Madison Bumgarner	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Barry Zito	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Total	101	92	36	3	2	9	8	9	.391	.440	.489	.929	1	2	1