AFL Round 8 thread

Gee · 05-21-12, 12:16 AM

Another classic Centrebet play tonight.

The last one won a few weeks ago and these hit at an amazing clip.

When Centrebet touts a play, then moves a line immediately, it loses. Bulldogs went from -6 to -7.5 on centrebet just before the email went out... taking this on faith in centrebet NRL lines alone. Fade or tail. As you guys know, my main sport is AFL.

kingsr · 05-21-12, 12:37 AM

Must mean Hodgkinson is playing.

kingsr · 05-21-12, 12:41 AM

Can you post the email Gee? Im not subscribed to emails from centrebet.

Gee · 05-21-12, 12:50 AM

I'm not sure about ins/outs pal. I've been following NRL this season, but I find it a little bit of a crap shoot. The way AFL is pretty much on every minute of the weekend now with the extra game, I don't have the time to watch it. These plays have done well though.

SHARKS $2.95 TO BEAT THE BULLDOGS!

Having some trouble with formatting. PM me your email if you want the full thing. its just the spreads and:

THE BULLDOGS HAVE WON 5 OF THEIR LAST 6 MATCHES AGAINST THE SHARKS.
BEN BARBA HAS SCORED THE FIRST TRY OF THE MATCH IN 2 OF THE LAST 3 GAMES.
THE BULLDOGS HAVE SCORED THE FIRST TRY OF THE MATCH IN THEIR LAST 5 GAMES.
WHEN BEHIND AT HALF TIME, THE SHARKS HAVE ONLY WON 1 OF THEIR LAST 10 MATCHES.


"TAKE BEN BARBA TO SCORE THE 1ST TRY AT $5 TONIGHT!"

hawley · 05-21-12, 12:52 AM

you on the Sharks Gee?

I am on the fence here. How many points do Cronulla have without Carney there?

This is MNF however

MatI · 05-21-12, 12:55 AM

Gee, maybe i'm suffering from mondayitis, but aren't centrebet touting sharks for tonight's game?

brettels · 05-21-12, 12:55 AM

You being a shill gee?

Gee · 05-21-12, 12:58 AM

MatI, that what I mean! Thats why I am on Bulldogs -6 for 2x.

Lol brettels. i wouldn't bet with Centrebet

-7.5 there. Get it somewhere good while you can.

edit: maybe my first post wasn't clear. I fade the centrebet email where appropriate. They are clearly touting the value on the Sharks, yet moved the line 1.5 against them about the same time they sent that email....therefore, bulldogs it is.

Gee · 05-21-12, 01:02 AM

Unreal, Crows open -12.5 against Pies.

No farkn play there. Fek. Unplayable.

hawley · 05-21-12, 01:03 AM

I maintain the Sharks will be lucky to score 12 points here.

The Bulldogs should win comfortably.

MatI · 05-21-12, 01:03 AM

ok, good stuff Gee, thought you were saying the opposite. I agree, and have noticed the trend with their monday arvo emails as well.

Also the line seems a bit of a give-away. As just looking at the game on face value, most would initially think sharks to win. But there is no way books would be giving away free money like that.

kingsr · 05-21-12, 01:05 AM

Brice Gibbs is out for sharks it seems. Not sure if this is solid info though.

hawley · 05-21-12, 01:06 AM

Doggies need to get their season on track here.

No Gallen and no Carney. Heart and soul of the team gone.

MatI · 05-21-12, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Brice Gibbs is out for sharks it seems. Not sure if this is solid info though.

Would be good news if so.

ACoochy · 05-21-12, 01:22 AM

Ok, im gonna bite...

hawley · 05-21-12, 03:39 AM

Gibbs in, Hodkinson in.

hawley · 05-21-12, 04:17 AM

10-0 in as many minutes. this won't be close

MatI · 05-21-12, 04:30 AM

Good start

Gee · 05-21-12, 04:49 AM

Basically looking done at half time (24-0 Bulldogs). Winner! Sharks look a bit lost with the ball without Carney to set it up.

brettels · 05-21-12, 04:58 AM

Got on it, thanks to this thread! Too early to celebrate?

hawley · 05-21-12, 05:01 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Got on it, thanks to this thread! Too early to celebrate?

No. Sharks have no points in them. Their execution was as poor as expected.

Doggies TT over cashes already, one to go.

Gee · 05-21-12, 05:43 AM

Wow. Sharks with all the pressure in the 2H, but incapable of putting points on the board.

I think we can start celebrating now (6 mins to go and Bulldogs ball).

Sharks with Gallen and Carney would have made Bulldogs pay for going to sleep after being up 24-0. I think at one stage the Sharks had 4 back to back sets for nothing.

hawley · 05-21-12, 05:51 AM

Easy win.

Thanks for posting that centrebet crap Gee.

Sharks were always going to battle without Carney. Gallen is a big loss but Carney guides round the field and installs a real confidence in the rest of the team.

Bbr · 05-21-12, 06:45 AM

centrebet sportingbet alll do it. follow SB on twitter.

Plenty of fades each week. You can tell by the way they tweet the market. I.e theyll advertise "Line Geelong +5.5 and another $20000 on Geelong at $2.20 now into $2.10" Collingwood won. This is just an example

Gee · 05-21-12, 08:23 AM

Good thinking. I don't really use twitter, but started following all the Aussie books and sportingbetUK now. I wonder if its worth following other UK rec shops.

If we're up for a fade the bookie tout play, we are now on Inter Turku in Finland soccer at -103. Going to throw $50 on it.

Crowing Capers · 05-21-12, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Unreal, Crows open -12.5 against Pies.

No farkn play there. Fek. Unplayable.

No Swan or Reid for the Wobbles. Snap up that -12.5 on crows now and beat the steam.
Crows back at home and flying that -12.5 is the right odds

Lookingtostart · 05-21-12, 11:06 AM

Crows will smash the pies, better coach, took Geelong to 3 premierships, he was the main reason for Geelong's success. Buckley seems OK as coach but will be no match for Crows at home. Only worry is Crows might get complacent at home.

Crowing Capers · 05-21-12, 06:40 PM

Crows now -13.5
No way crows complacent in this game
Patty D is set to sign new contract
Club flying
Crows good things

Coopertrooper · 05-22-12, 09:34 AM

Would wait for the teams for the pies and crows. If we get the right players back we won't be a walkover.

Won't touch that market though, and don't like too much right now. Only good odds to me is Sydney. Saints haven't been that impressive, even if the game is in Melbourne.