AFL Round 8 thread

Coopertrooper · 05-19-12, 10:20 AM

I think Carlton 1-39 tomorrow (or today our time in east coast of Aus!). Adelaide will be competitive, but the last 26 months has shown that sides coming off a break of 2-5 days longer than their opponent lose more often, and a lot of them are even upsets. Carlton should be good enough to win, but shouldn't kill the crows.

Think it could be a big play, already have it in a multi, and 1 unit on it. Might put a couple more units on it by bounce-down. GL for the last lot of games everyone!

Bbr · 05-19-12, 10:36 AM

Yeh I also think its a close game. Crows don't play at Etihad very often this year and have played horribly in recent years. Carlton should get up. Blues 1-39 is a Gd play but wouldn't go large because of the crows poor record at etihad

Gee · 05-19-12, 12:35 PM

Careful guys.

Carlton off the short break and Crows playing great footy. Crows could snatch this.

Taylor Walker is a huge out. If he was in, this would be a big play on Crows.

Bbr · 05-19-12, 05:00 PM

Very true. Walker out will do out for me though. Leading goal scorer. Blues by 20 I think. I haven't made the bet yet but since I'm going to the game I might just put 20 on the crows because I barrack for them

shari91 · 05-19-12, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by shari91

melb +41.5

gold coast under 180.5

richmond +13.5 for half a unit just for kicks

gl everyone!

I just looked at scores now.

MELB SCORED 37 POINTS IN AN ENTIRE MATCH?????????????? That's bloody legendary.

Richmond, thanks for allowing that last goal to f my cover.

And thank you GC for giving me one win on the under yesterday by scoring THIRTY FOUR POINTS. WTF????????????? Is this a joke??

So now I won $100 with Collingwood on Friday, lost that with Melb won $100 with GC under but lost $50 with the Tiges. I'm up FIFTY F'N DOLLARS after that whoreshit.

Seriously ready to give up for a week. (Yes I know it's better than being down but final scores of 34 and 37 are shocking).

Anyway, gl to everyone today. So angry right now not sure if I should bet.

Bbr · 05-19-12, 08:22 PM

Taking giants to cover

raydog · 05-19-12, 08:57 PM

played carlton 1-39 and st.kilda +17.5... few hundy each...just too fukking busy with memphis in may bbq fest this weekend ... hate putting footy on the back burner too

shari91 · 05-19-12, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by raydog

played carlton 1-39 and st.kilda +17.5... few hundy each...just too fukking busy with memphis in may bbq fest this weekend ... hate putting footy on the back burner too

I took the Blues 1-39 too. Not touching those St Kilda f'rs.

And ENJOY yourself this wknd Ray. Footy will always be here xo

Coopertrooper · 05-19-12, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by Gee

Careful guys.

Carlton off the short break and Crows playing great footy. Crows could snatch this.

Taylor Walker is a huge out. If he was in, this would be a big play on Crows.

I did an article on a forum I use having a look at the stats on the short break. Can't link it as the site is under maintenance, but 26 of 46 teams since 2010 have won with a break between 2-5 days shorter than their opponent, and of the 26 wins 10 were by teams that weren't favourite (of the 19 games where the team with the longer break won [there was 1 draw], there were 6 upsets). Recent history suggests it is a disadvantage to have the longer break (particularly a break of 6 and 8 days for each team).

I found it very surprising, and was the complete opposite of what I was expecting. But it suggests to me that Carlton should still do enough to win (especially in Melbourne), but Adelaide are playing better footy and shouldn't be slaughtered. Nothing is a certainty, but it is interesting how recent history has turned out.

SiMON2g · 05-19-12, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Bbr

Taking giants to cover

I'm on GWS aswell, what line did you get?I got +38.5

Bbr · 05-19-12, 09:50 PM

35.5

Bbr · 05-19-12, 09:56 PM

Parlay eagles/blues pretty solid. Eagles with some big ins.

kingsr · 05-19-12, 10:07 PM

St Kilda have owned wc in recent meetings. Tread carefully.

ACoochy · 05-19-12, 10:13 PM

Gee we think alike.

On crows ML here small. Think this will be the team to break the winless streak in Victoria.

Jenkins should be a nice fit in place of Walker...

Gee · 05-19-12, 10:16 PM

Lions live boys.

i have a unit pregame and a unit on them live.

GWS are hungover from last week.

edit: wanted to post that quickly. Lines were -34.5 and -49.5.

Gee · 05-19-12, 10:33 PM

On Cormier here too in the Strikeforce. C'mon one time!

Walker has been so good Coochy. He is irreplaceable in current form. Hopefully Petrenko and Porplyzia and some of the small guys can chip in. Tippet has to keep them straight though, especially without Walker.

brettels · 05-19-12, 10:39 PM

Merret 5 goals in first quarter for Brisbane, I can see him kicking 10+ if they keep him forward!

brettels · 05-20-12, 12:00 AM

meh, nothing since!

ACoochy · 05-20-12, 12:04 AM

Gee did u see what Cormier did to Barnett's face??

guy was unrecognizable almost...

That was a massive wager for me (as in returned enough to go on expenses paid trip through asia)...

Fukk I'm pumped

hawley · 05-20-12, 12:05 AM

What was Cormier pre fight?

I got him live at 1.80

ACoochy · 05-20-12, 12:08 AM

Hawley got him more than 3 months ago at +130...made over 1 grand difference between opening and closing number...fukk yeah :-)

hawley · 05-20-12, 12:08 AM

killed it bro.

Gee · 05-20-12, 12:58 AM

Nice job. Always good when taking an early line pays off.

I got him -103 yesterday.

Crows fighting hard here.

Lions did it easy. I told you guys that GWS were done early. They never looked interested.

Coopertrooper · 05-20-12, 01:20 AM

Murphy injured, that isn't going to help. Carlton losing this would make a mockery of them getting to $3.50 flag favourites a month ago!

Gee · 05-20-12, 01:24 AM

Yup, Dangerfield killed Murphy.

This is playing out like Coochy and I had it... Crows are good. Blues are overrated.

Coopertrooper · 05-20-12, 01:33 AM

Can't believe it. Adelaide's big forward haven't even done much, Carlton are just being smashed in the middle. Not sure why they are playing Kreuzer if he isn't fit, they aren't playing him in the ruck, and he's had 2 touches. With Murphy gone, Judd well held, and the rest of their main midfielders not managing 10 touchs in the first half... you'd have to think they couldn't play this badly in the second half. Kreuzer into the ruck and Yarran to come on and provide run from defence SHOULD happen, but the crows have managed to really break away from them here. Not sure the blues can come back from this far back, but don't think it is done just yet.

But Carlton don't look like the side I saw demolish my side a bit over a month ago. Lack of confidence, and are being found out defensively. The old 'downhill skiers' tag might be thrown about again, their midfield looks good when they are firing (which happens most of the time) but when they don't they get blown out of the water. Their best and worst are polar opposites.

ACoochy · 05-20-12, 01:54 AM

Trooper u can't tell me this didn't have upset written all over it...This crows side means business...

showtiime · 05-20-12, 01:59 AM

took eagles 1-39

Lookingtostart · 05-20-12, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by ACoochy

Trooper u can't tell me this didn't have upset written all over it...This crows side means business...

They're playing like Geelong in their past years. Sanderson.

Coopertrooper · 05-20-12, 03:06 AM

Cooch, I just can't believe how poor Carlton have been in the past 7 days. Adealide have been playing some good footy for sure, but I didn't think they'd come out and do this. The fact they've ripped Carlton to shreds obviously commands respect... and I'm going to have to drop Carlton back down a few spots in my mind. I rated Carlton before today, won't be doing that now.

It has been a funny year of footy, a lot of teams have been up and down. Thought it would have settled by now, but it hasn't.

Time to lick the wounds after this week and try to make it back next week.

Bbr · 05-20-12, 03:15 AM

Carn the crows !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ACoochy · 05-20-12, 03:43 AM

Whilst i partially agree with ur analysis i trooper id also have to add that the blues werent in-form coming into this game. Their win/loss ratio imo is above where they are and without their key players in form they are at best ever slightly above average or thereabout...

Next week mate...

YTD: 17-10 +7.49

Bronxer and Co, if ur reading this after that burial earlier in the year i only hope youve tailed since as you would have made it all back and then some...Currently on a 11-1 streak...

Lets keep on winning guys

hawley · 05-20-12, 03:45 AM

Originally posted by ACoochy

Whilst i partially agree with ur analysis i trooper id also have to add that the blues werent in-form coming into this game. Their win/loss ratio imo is above where they are and without their key players in form they are at best ever slightly above average or thereabout...

Next week mate...

YTD: 17-10 +7.49

Bronxer and Co, if ur reading this after that burial earlier in the year i only hope youve tailed since as you would have made it all back and then some...Currently on a 11-1 streak...

Lets keep on winning guys

I have been riding you and Gee for the majority of your posted plays in recent times..

Helps for me having bet365 live options still since I have managed to grab live lines throughout the matches.

I still know next to nothing so I appreciate it

Crowing Capers · 05-20-12, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Bbr

Carn the crows !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fukk yeah BBR. How good were the mighty Crows today.... Some nice coin made indeed.
Will flog the wobbles at footy pk next sat night. Geton early and get on big!!! Wobbles no Swan or Reid. Crows 40 plus again.....
With the draw the Crows have top 4 is just about a certainty and real shot at flag in open year

Gee · 05-20-12, 11:11 AM

Nice one Coochy. Only one wrong here this weekend and that was the North debacle. So close to being perfect. The worm has definitely turned on this season.

hawley:

You are basically the only reason I post my live bets. Good to see you have been making some cash. Coochy and I have been hot the last month.

I'm not going to be pounding the Crows until Walker is back. I wonder whether Crows will now start favourites.

Whatever the line is, take a close look at fading the Suns 2H next week. Inability to run out games has been huge the last fortnight.