you will throw your money away betting NFL..

[Brady2Moss]

Treece, I feel your pain that OAK +8.5 loss was a tough one to swallow... Anyways, if you honestly think you can beat NFL spreads long term, track your number for 5 seasons and then find out if you can do it or not. The only way to beat the books is to find off-lines, chase steam, tear up smaller leagues (CFL, AFL, WNBA, NHL etc) betting main-stream leagues is usually a losing proposition.

[Helmut]

LOL @ all those suckers on Oak and STL

Thought they had it in the bag, dancing in the streets.

Now there holding their bleeding sump holes wondering what happened.

[pokernut9999]

Totally agree with the OP here. The only reason I am up on the day is because I bet a lot of 2nd halfs for teams that were double digit favorites(Bills and Cowboys)

The one team that I see cappers struggling with right now are the Falcons. They are covering everything at home and they give them way too much respect on the road.

Could be they played 2 shitty teams at home and 2 good teams on the road. Not to hard to figure out.

[VegasDave]

I've been sending out my newsletter for 3 seasons (this one is my 4th) and have had a winning record ATS every year.

Will 51 or 52% win you money? Not really. But it won't lose you money either and it'll keep you alive all season

[I.R.B]

Can't wait till Baseball next season...

Baseball is where to make you're money...

[Chi_archie]

anyone know when elementary school dodge ball betting season starts? I think i might make money there... screw this pro crap..

o'doyle rules

[durito]

If you can't predict football, why are the lines so sharp?

[Masu485]

If you can't predict football, why are the lines so sharp?

that's like a paradox and it blows my mind

[Chi_archie]

good question...

but obviously we know, that in any sport... with the human element in it, it means you can't totally predict...

but I really feel in football you can predict less...because it is such a raw, combative, testosterone fueled sport. you don't know how player a is gonna react to getting a stinger or getting hit so hard he loses his breath or snot comes out his nose ( have you played football durito? because its hard to describe all that goes into it, to someone that hasn't played at a least a small college level)

anyways, despite not being totally predictable...nothing in life is...statistics are reality..reality of history....but very few statistics ever show us 100%'s they show us probabilities which MAY pay off over time...and the NFL more then any other sport is about what have you done for me lately... F the statistics... EVERY week GENIUS offensive and defensive coordinators spend 90 hours watching film and devising new schemes and plays for their opponents... that is info that we have no access too.

now to handicapping.. the point is... unless you are unemployed or independently wealthy, how many joe 6-pack handicappers on this board are spending as much time analyzing a game W/ as many years experience as linesmakers in vegas....

point being... how often do we really calculate an edge in nfl over vegas linesmakers.... who I have no doubt, would quickly suffer loss of job...if not life and limb if they really really really sucked.....

so we are dealing with the best of the best... who also have access to info, that goes well beyond great internet sites, and radio shows ect... they prob have cell phone #'s to gf's who tell them how many orgasms player b had last week... and the linesmakers have trends on how often player b scores a TD on weeks he has 10 or more orgasms, and less then 4 wheat grass smoothies

[jjgold]

I'm telling you right now. Every sport is a toss up. I can't stand it when people research games for hours looking up trends and injuries and motivation. Oddsmakers take all this into account to begin with.

I just bet one game a day, use a random number generator to give me my pick, and that's it. Takes less than 3 minutes, and gives equal results to hours of research.

Solid post, some guy do enjoy doing research though so you cannot knock that, the guys that study and do it squeak out a profit is it worth all the time vs ROI??? NO.


The only way you can have a decent year is spot bet in any sport, there are a few times during the year that some bets are actually solid whether they win or lose but for the most part it is a pure guess.

[mathdotcom]

jj has been around for decades
he knows the game can't be beaten

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

that's like a paradox and it blows my mind

mine too

[Kindred]

50-50 chance is still better than most casino games and horse racing. Sports betting is still the best chance you have to win.

Not with the juice, hell some slot machines have a lower house edge than sports -110 if you are just going to flip coins and go 50-50. If you play matchbook, take the +101 or better offers, and go 50-50 it can be +EV

[bettilimbroke999]

If you can't predict football, why are the lines so sharp?

The lines are a good average to divide the betting, they are not really that sharp in the NFL in terms of hitting the exact true number but since one score is 7 pts they dont have to be razor sharp, let's say they are off 2 pts and a turnover gives the other team a TD well that makes up for the 2 pts they're off and 5 more unexpected points, extremely volatile and when the players offenses and defenses are the best of the best it is difficult to really call any team a true "underdog" since they are all the top paid professional athletes and capable of playing very well or badly on any given day.

College football is only way to win, in the NFL it is becoming clear that the players are just too good to really guess who will win, when the Eagles played tonight they were down by 4 and had first and goal on the 3 to win the game, they go 4 and out on 4 1/2 yrd rushes up the middle and lose the game, in college there is lil if any doubt that with 4 downs any half decent college team is going to get in the endzone for the win. NFL is a total crapshoot, so is MLB, ppl who think they can win at any sport other than college football and basketball are barrelled in degens.