you will throw your money away betting NFL..

flyingillini · 09-28-08, 04:38 PM

Love this post, great job Nickivator!

jjgold · 09-28-08, 04:42 PM

Nicky 80% of sports are a lottery, coin flipping is just as good. I love when guys come in here and say Team A will win because of the angle or a trend they have, bookies will take 100,000 bets on nfl because it is a pure guess. Books clean up now

BOOKS DO NOT LIKE BIG BASEBALL BETTORS

fiveteamer · 09-28-08, 04:45 PM

Nicky, what % of guys who post here are down the past 10 years.

If you had to guess.

Nicky Santoro · 09-28-08, 04:47 PM

flyer and jj,

i laugh at guys i keep reading here saying.. take bills 2nd half, take dal 2nd half, or take chargers 2nd half, cause they are due..

do you think these guys here know more than the oddsmakers?? lol... you dont think the oddsmakers know that SD is down 15-0 at half and will make line much higher than usual cause they know the public will take SD? these guys actually believe they are one step ahead of bookies? LOL LOL..

you cant win in NFL.. forget it.. if you think you can out handicap these guys, you are living in a dream world.. LOL

if you dont believe me, go sit with any bookie offshore during a dinner, and ask them how much they are up lifetime in NFL, as compared to other sports, and they will be scared to give you actual figures, because your heart might stop..

fiver, 99.48%

Chi_archie · 09-28-08, 04:48 PM

Have you ever pooooooped..........a balloon???

flyingillini · 09-28-08, 04:49 PM

Nicky, I agree with you 100% you aren't telling me information that should be common sense to people.

Seattle Slew · 09-28-08, 04:49 PM

50-50 chance is still better than most casino games and horse racing. Sports betting is still the best chance you have to win.

THE_LOCKSMITH · 09-28-08, 04:54 PM

or you could just take the points!

Helmut · 09-28-08, 04:56 PM

Only bets I made today were in the WNBA.

FUKK THE NFL

Nicky Santoro · 09-28-08, 04:57 PM

Seattle,

there is something called vig.. it's not 50-50... if you go 50-50, you go broke..

locker,

if you took the pts today, you'd be down money.. even with the 3-0 late games..

you just CAN'T win boys.. go light in NFL.. if you are up now, eventually, you will give it all back.. bet for entertainment, not to retire, cause you will be very disappointed at the end.

Chi_archie · 09-28-08, 04:59 PM

for real though.... NFL heck even college football as we saw this past weekend, IS CRAZY..... its much different then mlb for sure.... heck you literally play 10% as many games in the nfl as you do in mlb.... NFL players literally are giving the cliche 110% every week... and when they do that... crazy things happen...adrenaline and motivation are unpredictable in football... and you have essentially 11 matchups to look at for each team's offense and defense...but if one matchup gets blown...one man doesn't do his job, the whole play or scheme gets mucked up... So one guy doesn't show up to play that sunday, or one guy comes extremely psyched up and there goes the whole game plan

woodg8 · 09-28-08, 05:00 PM

NFL is a joke to bet on. Currently 0-3 today with the Bills ****ing up the -5.5 bet.

I think I'll just sit back with a beer and enjoy it instead of losing my money.

Mudcat · 09-28-08, 05:02 PM

Speak for yourself. NFL betting attracts the most squares and, as a result, offers the most gifts for smart bettors who don't get caught up in hype and don't always over-react to the most recent thing they saw.

Maybe you can't pick up on it and you throw away your money, but I know plenty of people who beat it routinely.

Nicky Santoro · 09-28-08, 05:03 PM

mudder,

i'd looooooooooooooooooooooooove to book your action.. i know 12,000 guys like you that say... i make money in NFL every year, and when i took em all as customers, they all went broke by the 3rd NFL season..

woodg8 · 09-28-08, 05:05 PM

Most games defy any logic though. The only suitable thing to do would be to bet every underdog, one's guaranteed to win at least as half these games make no sense.

Look at the Denver game, you could have told me pre-game Kansas City would have won by 14? I doubt it.

fiveteamer · 09-28-08, 05:07 PM

maybe guys over think.

THE_LOCKSMITH · 09-28-08, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

Seattle,

there is something called vig.. it's not 50-50... if you go 50-50, you go broke..

locker,

if you took the pts today, you'd be down money.. even with the 3-0 late games..

you just CAN'T win boys.. go light in NFL.. if you are up now, eventually, you will give it all back.. bet for entertainment, not to retire, cause you will be very disappointed at the end.

Yea its definatly tough, i not saying take all games plus points i was on DEN -9.5 and TEN -3.0 in the early games. because of that DEN i took a chance on STL +9.5 on the later games (might come in) If it does i'll be up on the day if not i'll be down
What sports do you feel are best to make $$$ on?

durito · 09-28-08, 05:12 PM

So, why not just bet all the big ML dogs?

You would clean up if your assessment is correct.

Chi_archie · 09-28-08, 05:15 PM

the nfl lines are sharp.... sharper then anything else i've seen... and honestly if you can call 60% of the winners on the ml even in the nfl... that's pretty decent. that includes ALL of the "predictable" games with a 11-2 team going against a 3-10 team at home.... but with the spread.... don't think that many people are getting better inside info and spending more time analyzing it then a bunch of professionally paid handicappers that do this as their job, and undoubtedly get better and more indepth info from inside sources..

you may have good knowledge AND get lucky for a year or two... but I don't think many people are making money in the NFL over 3 straight seasons

Nicky Santoro · 09-28-08, 05:17 PM

you guys should listen to the poster above me.. that CHI guy.. that was a good post CHI.. i have been saying this now for so long here. these lines are so freakin sharp.. how the fukk is anyone here going to outsmart these amazing linesmakers. do you know how much effort and work is put into these lines.. yet we will always hear people still say.. i looooooooooooove the bears tonight. OR i looooooooooooooooove the eagles tonight.. LOL...

forget it boys..

Brady2Moss · 09-28-08, 05:18 PM

Nicky is right, NFL is impossible to beat long-term...

Brady2Moss · 09-28-08, 05:19 PM

If you wanna beat the books, bet NHL and MLB ONLY, those are the weakest markets out of the major sports leagues

durito · 09-28-08, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Brady2Moss

Nicky is right, NFL is impossible to beat long-term...

Your attitude sure changed fast.

Chi_archie · 09-28-08, 05:21 PM

brady? you're still around? I thought you quit after the USC game?

Glad to hear you didn't find a gun like you were talking about

pavyracer · 09-28-08, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

boys, look at the 3 late games.. 2 of the games are -400 and 1 is a -500 favorite.. all 3 are close to double digit favs.. and all 3 are getting massacred..

boys, i said it once, and i'll say it again.. NFL is a fukkin joke. NOBODY can predict this crap..NFL is more 50-50, than flipping a freakin coin.. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT..

let your grandmother pick the games, she has just a better shot than you..

let your dog pop balloons with names of each team, and you will have the same chance at winning, IF not, better. trust me..

DON'T THROW YOUR MONEY AWAY BOYS.. BET SMALL IN NFL..

IT'S A FREAKIN JOKE..

nfl is a bookie's dream.. nfl is the reason all these books are making so much money..

Both ML's looking good.

BeatTheJerk · 09-28-08, 05:28 PM

yeah let's get'em richie

Chi_archie · 09-28-08, 05:57 PM

well

after all that....

I still REALLY LOVE the Eagles tonight!!! ha

is it bad that its no where near as fun to watch a game with at least somthing ridin on it???

pokernut9999 · 09-28-08, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

flyer and jj,

i laugh at guys i keep reading here saying.. take bills 2nd half, take dal 2nd half, or take chargers 2nd half, cause they are due..

do you think these guys here know more than the oddsmakers?? lol... you dont think the oddsmakers know that SD is down 15-0 at half and will make line much higher than usual cause they know the public will take SD? these guys actually believe they are one step ahead of bookies? LOL LOL..

you cant win in NFL.. forget it.. if you think you can out handicap these guys, you are living in a dream world.. LOL

if you dont believe me, go sit with any bookie offshore during a dinner, and ask them how much they are up lifetime in NFL, as compared to other sports, and they will be scared to give you actual figures, because your heart might stop..

fiver, 99.48%

Hey Nicky , they play 4 quarters in football.

daggerkobe · 09-28-08, 06:15 PM

I admit it... I had SD -400.

pats3peat · 09-28-08, 06:34 PM

yocananyonelistsomegoodmlbcappers

Seattle Slew · 09-28-08, 06:43 PM

I didn't mean split all bets, just that you have a 50-50 shot with each bet, unlike horses or casino games.

And if you go .500 for the year, you won't go broke at 110. You'll lose a little but have action all year.

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

Seattle,

there is something called vig.. it's not 50-50... if you go 50-50, you go broke..

locker,

if you took the pts today, you'd be down money.. even with the 3-0 late games..

you just CAN'T win boys.. go light in NFL.. if you are up now, eventually, you will give it all back.. bet for entertainment, not to retire, cause you will be very disappointed at the end.

blackNgoldjuice · 09-28-08, 06:44 PM

Totally agree with the OP here. The only reason I am up on the day is because I bet a lot of 2nd halfs for teams that were double digit favorites(Bills and Cowboys)

The one team that I see cappers struggling with right now are the Falcons. They are covering everything at home and they give them way too much respect on the road.

Masu485 · 09-28-08, 06:59 PM

I'm telling you right now. Every sport is a toss up. I can't stand it when people research games for hours looking up trends and injuries and motivation. Oddsmakers take all this into account to begin with.

I just bet one game a day, use a random number generator to give me my pick, and that's it. Takes less than 3 minutes, and gives equal results to hours of research.

treece · 09-28-08, 07:04 PM

I love the people who say in July I can't wait for football because they say you can't predict baseball. Then when football comes and they get beat they say I can't wait for basketball. Its all the same sht you can't predict anything, Nicky knows what i'm talkin about. My favorite bet today was Oakland +9, I mean cmon really? How sick is this sht.