My College Football Picks Week 2 (Video)

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by jimmydingle

nice to see someone with analysis, and it seems like you die with every loss-two things i look for-i think i may just use your picks all year
are you good in nfl too?

Haha, funny that you can tell that about me, I absolutely do die with every loss...

When I feel I am on the right side of a game but lose anyway, I curse the world (See Kansas, Tenn last week)... When I feel I was on the wrong side of a game, I curse myself for not having seen it sooner.

I was excellent in NFL, but I had an off year last year. I hate to make excuses, but I was working 40 hours a week (including weekends) at my job last year during football season and hated it and was miserable. Did not spend nearly enough time capping or watching games because I was so tired and worn out.

Now I have a job with a radio station that allows me to sit on the computer for my entire shift and read up on stats, injuries, notes, etc, and get back into my comfort zone for capping and hopefully get back to that elusive 2005 form where I picked 55% ATS on the entire year.

Only time will tell if the extra time I am putting in will equal more wins; but I'll be damned if I won't be trying.

rossta4i · 09-06-08, 03:14 AM

would you take oak st/houston over 60 and south florida -7 half and-14.5 final? feeling kinda weird about the spread

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 03:56 AM

I would probably buy the half point on South Florida. I know some people are adamantly against buying points, but how many games are won by 15 points? 16? You likely need a 17 point win or better to cash it...

That said, I do think they win this game by 17+... UCF is really going to have trouble finding the endzone if I'm not mistaken. If you feel weird about it though, don't play it... thousands of betting opportunities a year, no sense in taking a game you aren't loving.

Oklahoma/Houston goes over 60 I think. Pass happy teams, suspect defenses, 35 - 28 or higher seems likely to me.

But we shall see! Good luck tomorrow!

rossta4i · 09-06-08, 04:14 AM

alright thank you for the input.

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 04:24 AM

Sure thing. Hate that I had to give up that extra 0.5 for Michigan... I just feel a blowout coming in that one. If it ends 24 - 10, I'll be pretty steamed

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 06:07 AM

Just a few more hours... the suspense is killing me.

jgm1967 · 09-06-08, 09:23 AM

Great thread dave.I love the picks and hope that this weekend was as successful as the last .

Has the newsletter come out yet..I would love to see you more on sbr tv, you are by far are one of the best posters on here.Consistently intelligent picks and writeups.Great job once again

Good luck today buddy

cheers

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 03:26 PM

Thanks jgm! I've tried uploading on SBR.tv 3 different times and it doesn't work. Don't know if it disagrees with my comp or video formatting or what...

The newsletter has come out (Wednesday night)... I'll PM you, I sent it to the address you gave me, I'll check to see if there was a typo or anything.

Thanks again for everything

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 03:29 PM

Ugh... Michigan disappoints again.

Had a bad feeling this morning... but I still have my afternoon games. Hopefully they can string together some wins and save my week!

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 06:14 PM

Ugh 1 - 2 today...

Thank God for Florida Atlantic!

Lets save face with a few last afternoon wins on Okl/Hou OVER and USF -13!

jimmydingle · 09-06-08, 06:22 PM

keep firing away dan!
what are your top 5 nfl picks tomorrow (in order of strength please)

gm2022 · 09-06-08, 06:28 PM

hang in there usc

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by jimmydingle

keep firing away dan!
what are your top 5 nfl picks tomorrow (in order of strength please)

It's Dave but close

Don't really have a fave 5 this week but I guess my fave 3 are Pitts -6.5, New England -16.5, and Minnesota ML. Also like the SF ML too.

Originally posted by gm2022

hang in there usc

I'm trying! That UCF 91 yard return sucked for the Under AND the USF pick... this game should be 10 - 0 and I'd be thrilled.

jimmydingle · 09-06-08, 08:54 PM

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 09:41 PM

I'm really having trouble finding a reason not to quit after a game like this one.

I'm sure I won't, but I just don't want to watch another college football game all year.

gm2022 · 09-06-08, 09:53 PM

dont worry theres always anthor day

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by gm2022

dont worry theres always anthor day

24 - 10 I have the Under 53 and and USF -12.5 I'm 3 mins and change away from going 4 - 3 on the week and Grothe throws a pick to get the crowd back in it and give them excellent field position... 2 TDs makes OT...

So instead of 10 - 7 on the year ATS I'm 8 - 9 with an embarassing 2 - 5 week.

I take every game personally, wish I didn't, but I do. These ones ruin my entire week.

diogee · 09-06-08, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by usckingsfan31

I'm really having trouble finding a reason not to quit after a game like this one.

I'm sure I won't, but I just don't want to watch another college football game all year.

Remember that we all have many bad beats through the year while gambling...these are expected but we all get some in our favor from time to time as well. Didn't watch your video until now but you seem to analyze the games very well. I'm sure you will bounce back.

Bad beats piss me off for a bit but I always tell myself on to tomorrow.

Good luck the rest of the year USC...look forward to your future videos and insight.

jimmydingle · 09-06-08, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by diogee

Remember that we all have many bad beats through the year while gambling...these are expected but we all get some in our favor from time to time as well. Didn't watch your video until now but you seem to analyze the games very well. I'm sure you will bounce back.

Bad beats piss me off for a bit but I always tell myself on to tomorrow.

Good luck the rest of the year USC...look forward to your future videos and insight.

this is not a bad beat

diogee · 09-06-08, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by jimmydingle

this is not a bad beat

No?...pretty bad beat on the total for sure. Pick thrown with 3 and change...touchdown a minute later. USF manages to take 30 seconds off the clock before punting away. UCF gets another touchdown. USF then gets into fg range but misses the fg that would have been the game winner and kept it under the total. How is it not a bad beat when you have the under and the game has to have 20 pts scored for it to go over and there are 3:30 left, yet it goes over?

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 10:57 PM

Yeah how is this not a bad beat? Not to mention UCF's only offense in the game and the only reason they were in the game was a 91 yard kickoff return.

Thanks diogee... I know bad beats happen and I know you can't take them too personally. But here I am with hundreds of people watching my vids and trying to decide whether they want to take me seriously or not and 2 - 5 this week and 8 - 9 on the year is a hell of a lot harder to take seriously then 4 - 3 this week and 10 - 7 on the year. Take it a step further and give me that ONE FVCKING YARD last week in the Kansas game and I'm at 11 - 6 on the year.

I know damn well over the course of the year these things will level out, but I'm going to lose a lot of people that would have otherwise cared or listened had I picked up these wins.

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 10:59 PM

bad beat or not u didnt have a successful day , GL next week

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

bad beat or not u didnt have a successful day , GL next week

Exactly, thank you for proving my point.

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:06 PM

Wanna see a bad beat ?

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:07 PM

Sep 2 2:33pm 6 Team Parlay - Loss 100.00 to win 8092.42 -100.00
1. Football - Ball State - spread -7 (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 5 at 6:00pm [winner]
2. Football - Akron - moneyline (+170)
for the entire game held on Sep 6 at 2:30pm [winner]
3. Football - Northwestern - spread -6½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 6 at 6:00pm [loss]
4. Football - San Diego State - spread +21½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 6 at 2:30pm [winner]
5. Football - Texas A&M - moneyline (-130)
for the entire game held on Sep 6 at 4:00pm [winner]
6. Football - Rice - moneyline (+145)
for the entire game held on Sep 6 at 7:00pm [winner]

diehardfan · 09-06-08, 11:08 PM

DAMN!!!! Now that's a bad beat!!!!!

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:08 PM

Now luckily i had Rice +145 T a&M -130 Ball st -7 str8 up and went 5-2 this weekend thus far so a nice profit but 8 dimes would of been very satisfying

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:08 PM

NW won by 4

VegasDave · 09-06-08, 11:25 PM

I'm sorry you last that game BTJ that would have been a great score and I wish you had hit it but that isn't a bad beat... the game was close all game long, Duke goes up by 3 and then NW scores to go up 4 and there is no more scoring. There wasn't any bullshit backdoor cover or anything like that, it was just a close game and 6.5 was too many points to give up.

You won't hear me complain about the BYU game or South Carolina or Michigan... I was just on the wrong side in those ones.

You didn't get screwed, you got beat fair and square which still sucks, but is totally different IMO.

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:26 PM

it's a badbeat parlay is what i meant

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:27 PM

is there a difference ?

AnotherLoan · 09-06-08, 11:27 PM

Hope you can bounce back next weekend USC. I want to see you do well pal and gain those viewers respect!

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:27 PM

ok how bout this one last year for me ................ would u condsider this a bad beat ? pal let me find in the archive

AnotherLoan · 09-06-08, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

ok how bout this one last year for me ................ would u condsider this a bad beat ? pal let me find in the archive

BeatTheJerk · 09-06-08, 11:29 PM

Wager Type: Parlay (10 team)
Wager Status: Loss
Risk / To Win Amount: 100.00 / 102,785.91 (USD) Accepted 10/23/2007 9:29 PM - EST

Item #1
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Boston College 10/25/2007 7:45:01 PM - (EST)
+138
Opponent: Virginia Tech

Item #2
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Air Force 10/25/2007 9:00:01 PM - (EST)
+6½ -110
Opponent: New Mexico

Item #3
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Connecticut 10/27/2007 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
+4½ -110
Opponent: South Florida

Item #4
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Loss
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Minnesota U 10/27/2007 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
+23½ -110
Opponent: Michigan

Item #5
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Mississippi 10/27/2007 6:00:01 PM - (EST)
+17½ -110
Opponent: Auburn

Item #6
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Kansas 10/27/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-2½ -110
Opponent: Texas A & M

Item #7
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Oregon 10/27/2007 3:00:01 PM - (EST)
-3 -110
Opponent: USC

Item #8
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Arizona U 10/27/2007 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
+145
Opponent: Washington U

Item #9
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Eastern Michigan 10/27/2007 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
+5 -110
Opponent: Western Michigan

Item #10
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
Toledo 10/27/2007 7:00:01 PM - (EST)
-3½ -110
Opponent: Northern Illinois

I mean loosing a parlay by one game happens from time to time, but the way I lost this one. Its gonna hurt for alittle while mos def ......... my only loss minn +23.5 34 -10 michigan over minn, half a point, with a meaningless 85 yard touchdown run by the thrid string running back of michigan with roughly 6 min to play ..........
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