Saints @ 49ers

LT Profits · 01-08-12, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by k13

If Pitt was home they would have won.

The other games could possibly have a different winner. You never know.

Not if Denver used the same game plan. Nobody expected so much trickeraration from them and if they execute those plays in Pittsburgh, I think they still would have won. Plus playing at home would not have cured all the Steelers' injury issues.

Chimneyfish · 01-08-12, 10:56 PM

The Saints side is going to look like a great pick to a lot of squares because it rests on a well-known quarterback who makes a lot of big plays, as opposed to the "fluke" team with a less conventional or flashy method of winning games. It's easy for even a casual fan to appreciate that the Saints' offense has a lot of talent when it comes to scoring points, but people generally have a harder time appreciating that the 49ers' defense has an equal amount of talent at preventing scoring. I'm sure people will undoubtedly come up with some other misinformed ideas about the matchup as well, such as discrediting the Niners' success this year on the basis that they play in the NFC West, while ignoring the fact that the Saints actually played a softer regular season schedule.

sexydude911 · 01-08-12, 11:14 PM

I predict the saints to win by 10 or more against the 49ers. The real question is how are they going to fair against the packers. Call me crazy but i think the saints will win the Superbowl this year. Oh, and i'm not even a saints fan.

dodger33 · 01-09-12, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not if Denver used the same game plan. Nobody expected so much ~~trickeraration~~ passing from them and if they execute those plays in Pittsburgh, I think they still would have won. Plus playing at home would not have cured all the Steelers' injury issues.

fixed. tebow can throw and i hope people still think he can't even after he beats the pats this weekend

TPowell · 01-09-12, 01:24 AM

teams that run the football and play solid defense> teams that sling it around like yesterday's newspaper

If I lose this game, I'll accept the fact that this league is a passing league now, but I don't think I'll have to

EvilBettor · 01-09-12, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by dodger33

fixed. tebow can throw and i hope people still think he can't even after he beats the pats this weekend

Let me know when you're ready to bet for some points.

Speedy88 · 01-09-12, 01:33 AM

I like the Saints big time. Lets forget the square vs sharp thing. Obviously that hasn't worked well (weren't all the sharps on Falcons and Bengals???).

The NFL is a Quarterbacking league. I'll take Drew Brees, who will go down as one of the greatest QB's ever over Alex Smith any day. I do think the 49ers will be able to move the ball up and down the field, but the big question is...CAN THEY SCORE TOUCHDOWNS. If they do what they did all year long and kick field goals all day, they'll lose. You can't trade TD's for FG's with the Saints.

In my opinion, the Saints just have too many weapons on offense. I hate to say it, but the NFL is an offense driven league, and right now it looks like offense is winning championships. Just look at the two #1 seeds in the NFC and AFC.
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dodger33 · 01-09-12, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

teams that run the football and play solid defense> teams that sling it around like yesterday's newspaper If I lose this game, I'll accept the fact that this league is a passing league now, but I don't think I'll have to

+1

TPowell · 01-09-12, 02:46 AM

10. Don't tell me New Orleans isn't a different team outside. Drew Brees played outdoors five times this season and had nine touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Oh, yeah, he was 3-2. In domes he had 37 touchdowns, eight interceptions and was 10-1. Three of the Saints' four lowest scores were outdoors, where they averaged 25.8 points per game. Outside they averaged 38 per game. Plus, they're 0-2 there in the playoffs under Sean Payton.

(fresh off CBS sportsline, will verify tomorrow)

HoulihansTX · 01-09-12, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Saints -4.5

GunShard · 01-09-12, 04:23 AM

I'm thinking about adding the 49ers in a teaser.

Remember when the Saints lost on the road against the Rams earlier this season? And lost to the Seahawks on the road in last season's playoff game?

Ernie Mccracken · 01-09-12, 04:46 AM

How fast/good are the SF DE's (Ray Mcdonald and Justin Smith)? I have only seen a couple SF games this year.

Brees throws darts anywhere at anytime, but has to compensate for his lack of height by taking a deeper drop and stepping into throwing lanes. If the DE's can be disruptive enough fill those lanes, big problems for NO. Watch the rams game and see how unbelievably ineffective the saints passing game was when Chris Long was able to clog those lanes for most of the game. Like a switch.

warriorfan707 · 01-09-12, 05:02 AM

Aldon and Justin Smith are a couple of athletic beasts who will harass Brees all day and make his stay in San Francisco an absolute living hell.

shaunovery · 01-09-12, 05:42 AM

Saints awful outside look at the Tampa game ninners defence to good run the ball if they can score 21 they will win

LUCKYCHUCK · 01-09-12, 06:03 AM

its going to be a great game. go saints

LT Profits · 01-09-12, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

It could still get to 4.5, it is more apt to go up than down because quite a few sharps like the Saints, so sharps and squares agree on this game.

Chimneyfish · 01-09-12, 04:43 PM

Why do you think sharps are on New Orleans?

k13 · 01-09-12, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It could still get to 4.5, it is more apt to go up than down because quite a few sharps like the Saints, so sharps and squares agree on this game.

Why is Pinnacle dropping the ML?

Sharps and Squares pounding supposedly yet the line is not going anywhere.......

LT Profits · 01-09-12, 04:55 PM

Who do you think moved the line from the key -3 to -3.5 shortly after opening? 90% of the square money won't hit until close to game day.

LT Profits · 01-09-12, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by k13

Why is Pinnacle dropping the ML?

Sharps and Squares pounding supposedly yet the line is not going anywhere.......

HUH?

Pinny opened -155. Now at -180.

Chimneyfish · 01-09-12, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Who do you think moved the line from the key -3 to -3.5 shortly after opening? 90% of the square money won't hit until close to game day.

Then what are you basing your prediction on right now? The line moved off 3 because over 85% of public bets have come in on the Saints side. If you're predicting that the sharp money is going to come in on the 85 side of an 85/15 split then it's going to take some explaining.

LT Profits · 01-09-12, 05:34 PM

Square money is insignificant at this early stage, so you can safely say that sharp money has caused the early movement. Now, since this is the playoffs, square money moves lines more than it does during the regular year just because of the sheer dollars bet, let's see what this line does when the squares shove it in on Friday/Saturday.

SteveRyan · 01-09-12, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Who do you think moved the line from the key -3 to -3.5 shortly after opening? 90% of the square money won't hit until close to game day.

It opened in Vegas at -3.5 / 47.5.... Hasn't budged.

rjt721 · 01-09-12, 05:40 PM

Dog + under.

LT Profits · 01-09-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by SteveRyan

It opened in Vegas at -3.5 / 47.5.... Hasn't budged.

Vegas is irrelevant, Pinny opened -3 +100.

TPowell · 01-09-12, 06:46 PM

I'd make a bigger wager on more squares being on New Orleans than SF...... no ******* way the average Joe is betting San Fran only getting 3.5

LT Profits · 01-09-12, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I'd make a bigger wager on more squares being on New Orleans than SF...... no ******* way the average Joe is betting San Fran only getting 3.5

Right, exactly my point, and with this being the playoffs, even the squares could move lines. So don't be surprised to see 4.5 by kick-off, although you may not see the rise until game day.

warriorfan707 · 01-09-12, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

So don't be surprised to see 4.5 by kick-off

Not going to happen

Trepanned · 01-09-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

Dog + under.

That's my play. The niners went over 24 vs the Rams, Seahawks in game 1, Bucs and 27 vs Giants. If they win it's almost certainly because they play good D. Of course that was also my reasoning on the Broncos spread/Under

MidgetTossers · 01-09-12, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

HUH?

Pinny opened -155. Now at -180.

i have pinny opener of -190 and its -180

k13 · 01-09-12, 11:45 PM

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k13 · 01-09-12, 11:49 PM

There's no way it was -155.

The ML came after the spread.

I'm assuming you like the Saints, hopefully it's as good as your LSU prediction.

MidgetTossers · 01-09-12, 11:57 PM

yea i have no idea where he got that -155..its total BS

Big Bear · 01-10-12, 12:20 AM

anybody got an early weather forecast?

is pat willis still hurt?

warriorfan707 · 01-10-12, 12:31 AM

Willis is healthy, happy, and ready to do what he usually does... 14 tackles, make the life of the offense a living hell, force a TO, maybe pick off a pass

Same shit different day