I didn't do the calculations myself so I will include qualifiers on everything I'm going to say but (with full respect to Fishhead) I felt that those who were going to blindly try this based on the numbers Fishhead posted should have complete information...
I'm assuming that Fishhead figured the numbers by increasing the size of the royal which means that to get exactly 102.33% you going to (similar to progressives) have to used a modified form of JoB basic strategy to achieve that expected return... Using traditional JoB strategy won't have you going for the royal often enough while something like just going for the royal (something someone else suggested in the thread) will extremely decrease your expected return...
Secondly, my guess of how Fishhead derived the 1/13 shot is dividing 40,000 (number close to the proximate royal cycle of traditional 9/6 JoB) by 3000 (his suggestion of the number of hands one could play during the length of the football)... This is going to grossly incorrect for almost everyone because 40,000 is not going to the correct royal cycle for this game's correct strategy (it is actually much lower) while, on the other hand, the only way you could get 3,000 hands while playing correct basic strategy for the game is have practiced extensively or don't play with regard to a basic strategy...
If I'm correct in how these numbers were derived while playing traditional JoB 9/6 strategy may get you over 100% return your return won't be 102% and while someone knowing JoB basic strategy extremely proficiently (and chooses to play this offer with it) might have a 1 in 13 everyone else's chances of hitting a royal are going to vastly different depending on their speed and their own decisions on how to play it...
I'm assuming that Fishhead figured the numbers by increasing the size of the royal which means that to get exactly 102.33% you going to (similar to progressives) have to used a modified form of JoB basic strategy to achieve that expected return... Using traditional JoB strategy won't have you going for the royal often enough while something like just going for the royal (something someone else suggested in the thread) will extremely decrease your expected return...
Secondly, my guess of how Fishhead derived the 1/13 shot is dividing 40,000 (number close to the proximate royal cycle of traditional 9/6 JoB) by 3000 (his suggestion of the number of hands one could play during the length of the football)... This is going to grossly incorrect for almost everyone because 40,000 is not going to the correct royal cycle for this game's correct strategy (it is actually much lower) while, on the other hand, the only way you could get 3,000 hands while playing correct basic strategy for the game is have practiced extensively or don't play with regard to a basic strategy...
If I'm correct in how these numbers were derived while playing traditional JoB 9/6 strategy may get you over 100% return your return won't be 102% and while someone knowing JoB basic strategy extremely proficiently (and chooses to play this offer with it) might have a 1 in 13 everyone else's chances of hitting a royal are going to vastly different depending on their speed and their own decisions on how to play it...
