Why Are Bears Getting 4.5 Points??

[kerrywoodwins20]

Because there were other factors at work there, as the Bears NEEDED the game more and stuff like that is factored into the line late in the season. The Jets would have been favored had the teams met in the Super Bowl (I think Sagarin had Jets -3 or -3.5).

Even a 3 point favorite though is almost too small to worry with. That means that the Jets may win like 55% of the time, IF their calculations are correct. That is a big if. The teams were pretty even last year... and probably will be again this year.

But you can bet your ass that the Jets will have more experts on their knobs, just b/c they are the Jets.

[kerrywoodwins20]

Honestly, I don't care about this argument anymore. The Jets and Bears aren't in the same league, and I doubt either of them makes it to the super bowl this year.

[yisman]

Even a 3 point favorite though is almost too small to worry with. That means that the Jets may win like 55% of the time, IF their calculations are correct. That is a big if. The teams were pretty even last year... and probably will be again this year. But you can bet your ass that the Jets will have more experts on their knobs, just b/c they are the Jets.

Uh, you claimed the evidence was that the Bears were clearly better last year. That's what started all of this, remember?

Honestly, I don't care about this argument anymore. The Jets and Bears aren't in the same league, and I doubt either of them makes it to the super bowl this year.

A)They are in the same league. They're just not in the same conference.
B)You don't care? So you start a huge nonsensical argument and then claim you don't really care about it. Troll much?

[LT Profits]

Even a 3 point favorite though is almost too small to worry with. That means that the Jets may win like 55% of the time, IF their calculations are correct. That is a big if. The teams were pretty even last year... and probably will be again this year.

But you can bet your ass that the Jets will have more experts on their knobs, just b/c they are the Jets.

Try 62.5%, as 3-point favorites are usually around -165. And Sagarin ratings can be trusted because they are usually within one point of the actual line. In other words, they are not a great source for handicapping because they rarely yield a big edge, but they are a great source for projecting future lines.

[d2bets]

Try 62.5%, as 3-point favorites are usually around -165. And Sagarin ratings can be trusted because they are usually within one point of the actual line. In other words, they are not a great source for handicapping because they rarely yield a big edge, but they are a great source for projecting future lines.

I remember doing all the line projections using all the futures and I remember pretty clearly having a potential Bears/Jets matchup at right around pk/-1, not -3. I think you are misremebering this.

[kerrywoodwins20]

I remember doing all the line projections using all the futures and I remember pretty clearly having a potential Bears/Jets matchup at right around pk/-1, not -3. I think you are misremebering this.

The Bears were only 5-3 at home last year, yet this guy thinks the Bears being at home is a difference in 6 points? -3 at home to +3 neutral.

Crazy. Bears were 7-1 on the road last year.

[LT Profits]

I remember doing all the line projections using all the futures and I remember pretty clearly having a potential Bears/Jets matchup at right around pk/-1, not -3. I think you are misremebering this.

I was closer.

Jets -2.8. Last year's final ratings are still up.

[d2bets]

I was closer.

Jets -2.8. Last year's final ratings are still up.

Link?

Besides, you said -3 or -3.5. The jump to and across 3 is much bigger than from -1. Anything less than 3 might just as well be a pk. Probably looking at -135/+115 ML (+-125 = 55.5%). That's not close to you? Very very little separating the teams.

[LT Profits]

Link?

Besides, you said -3 or -3.5. The jump to and across 3 is much bigger than from -1. Anything less than 3 might just as well be a pk. Probably looking at -135/+115 ML (+-125 = 55.5%). That's not close to you? Very very little separating the teams.

Yeah, the 3/3.5 was a senior moment for me. -2.8 is just shy of -3 though, so ML would be closer to -160 than -135.

http://www.usatoday.com//sports/sagarin/nfl10.htm

[LT Profits]

Upon further review, maybe -145 so looks like it would be smack in the middle between us. But -145 is still 59.2%

Approximate equivalents:

-3 = -165
-2.5 = -133
-2 = -128

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/spread-ml-converter/