-125 FEDERER vs NADAL +115 Discussion Thread

[flyingillini]

Darn, I'd wish you well but I'd be lying.

Big stones though fading Fed in his quest for a 6th consecutive Wimbledon title, and 66th or 67th win on grass in a row..

No reason why I am betting him other than why not....

[Wheell]

Spreadsheet lines:

Rafa -130
Venus -124

Statistically both underdogs have been slightly stronger throughout the tournament. Any player can win any of the matches, and betting on a Williams sister match is the height of degeneracy.

But Rafa vs. Fed? Fed can win but he almost certainly cannot be the right side.

Federer has won 39.6% of his return points. He has won 75.8% of his service points.

Rafa has won 41.7% of his return points. Rafa has won 76.5% of his service points.

Federer's draw was tougher if you consider Hewitt's entire grass court career. Rafa's is stronger if you just use the past 3 years.

Maybe Rafa's knee gives out again like last year. Or maybe this time Rafa wins one of the tiebreaks and it never comes to that.

At pick'em I can see some compelling arguments for Federer but I would still back Nadal. At +120? Come on.

[SBR Lou]

Spreadsheet lines:

Rafa -130
Venus -124

That's a joke.

You believe that's a truer representation of what this line ought to be?

[Wheell]

I would take Rafa at pick'em. You would take Federer. Thankfully I don't have to take pick'em.

[mathdotcom]

Wheell,

That's terrible analysis. Absolutely terrible. You forget to mention that Federer hasn't lost at Wimbledon since ever. He has a 2% edge on those stats you mention. Those don't mean sh*t. If you're going to base your pick on that, enjoy bankrupting yourself.

[Wheell]

You'd think a guy named mathdotcom would appreciate these stats. Bankrupt myself? Not likely. Lose? Maybe. But while I've some good days and some bad days at Wimbeldon this year, I'm up on the tournament... like I was for the French and would have been for the Australian if I hadn't bet 3x normal on Tsonga. Federer hasn't lost at Wimbeldon in a long time, but last year Rafa was the stronger player over the first 4 sets, and lost due to injury.

Mock the numbers all you wish. Rafa lost to Federer in the finals each of the last two years. I still say Rafa is the stronger grass player right now. I'm a little worried about his knee, but not worried about him being the right side.

[Wheell]

Ah, fixed.

[mathdotcom]

See your 2nd last post made more sense. You can't just use stats alone. You have to use your gut, but back it up on reasonable stats. Federer has had way more aces. But his return % is 2% lower. How do you weigh those??

Nothing wrong w/ picking Rafa for those reasons. I think he has a good chance, and is the reason I'm staying away. BOL.

[pokernut9999]

Wheell,

That's terrible analysis. Absolutely terrible. [I]You forget to mention that Federer hasn't lost at Wimbledon since ever[/I]. He has a 2% edge on those stats you mention. Those don't mean sh*t. If you're going to base your pick on that, enjoy bankrupting yourself.

Yea , that should count for something.

[valdosta]

------------- 7/5/2008 2:44 AM Money Line 635.00 500.00 Other Sports - 9328 Roger Federer -127 for Game

-------------- 7/5/2008 2:40 AM Money Line 620.00 500.00 Other Sports - 9328 Roger Federer -124 for Game
------------------------------------------------------------

I took Federer for a unit or so. That price was just to attractive. I'll take the guy with the better serve.

[pat venditto]

Rule 1 Of Intelligent Betting

Dont Bet Against Good Teams/players

[pat venditto]

Meaning the smart guy who wants to win long term says in his head. hmmm

federer = good
nadal = good

hmm small to no edge?

pass?

[Stacocakes]

Going to see a Federer that is pissed and actually has some motivation right now. Seems like all the press thinking that he is "done" has made him hungrier for this title. No matter what the outcome ultimately is in this match, the RIGHT play is Federer because of the low odds.