Mavs/Heat game 6

[Bengals28]

Best way of throwing your money

Wait werent you the guy that made the lock thread for game 5?

[Bengals28]

Very good stat. We saw home cooking at it's best last year with Lakers in game 7 in the 4th quarter.

Here's a stat for ya, Dallas in close out games in the 11' playoffs, 3-0.

[suicidekings]

line should be +4 or less ..

Released at -5.5, then it moves to -6 and then back to -5.5 within a few hours. The market reached equilibrium very quickly, which says the line is exactly where it should be from the books perspective. They have a nice stable line for Gm 6 and a series price that's essentially even odds, so they can relax and let the games play out without concern for their profit margin.

[RAVENSFAN]

Released at -5.5, then it moves to -6 and then back to -5.5 within a few hours. The market reached equilibrium very quickly, which says the line is exactly where it should be from the books perspective. They have a nice stable line for Gm 6 and a series price that's essentially even odds, so they can relax and let the games play out without concern for their profit margin.

Posted this in another thread but maybe ur reasoning is the answer to my q's?

My questions are about this line in this game and ML etc. Also I am not trying to claim to know anything, this is just a few honest questions:
1 - Why would the sportsbooks lay more than 3 to 1 for Dallas to win? When they are clearly the better team....Wouldnt everyone and their dog be on that for value?
2 - Also why would Miami 4-3 series price be paying less than Dallas 4-2 and 4-3 when they have to win BOTH and Dallas only needs one?
Thanks and appreciate it

[Dark Horse]

Wait for the refs Sunday morning. I would suggest live betting. If the refs call a lot of early fouls, as they did in game 5, the game will go over. Apart from the FT's adding up, it softens up the defense. That's why the shooting percentage was so high for game 5. It's ridiculous how one night the refs let them play, and the next they're back to calling everything. After the game 5 shootout the Heat will want to keep Dallas under 100, so I would also look at parlaying Heat x Under and Mavs x Over.

[aznjeff07]

looks good...-6 is too large for me

[jjgold]

I cannot see this a high scoring game

[headhunter34]

i think the mavs finish em off. they got all the momentum

[deeshen13]

-6 seems so much given out things have played out... makes me wonder what vegas knows

[LiarGame]

Mavs plus 6 looks like the way to go.

[LordVodka]

Heatles -5.5

[triqy]

should be a very intresting game tomorrow...Dallas plus the points doesnt sound bad at all

[STAY STRONG]

All I want to do is eat my tuna sandwich and this series is going to game 7.

[t-wizzle]

Miami series price has been getting some action since the Game 5 loss.

[cranzter]

Mavs win it in game 6

[wrongturn]

I will throw a dice to see what to bet

[NrmlCurvSurfr]

Go Mavs!! Heat will choke!!!!!

[t-wizzle]

Bro i think you should really consider that this ML drop is normal. The same exact thing happened with Boston-LA last year in Game 6.

[Ch3fDan]

I think the Mavs can pull this off.

[Pauulzcappin]

My season bet on MAvs to win title at +1320 doesn't look so foolish now, does it LB?

[geebert74]

It would of been foolish 5 months ago... I wouldn't of made that bet

[Pauulzcappin]

It would of been foolish 5 months ago... I wouldn't of made that bet

I'm not gonna go over this again but I pointed out their biggest qualities that most people can only see now in finals:

- Efficient zone D
- Two of the best closers in the league
- Deep bench
- Being a great road team


Already hedged the Mavs bet small so I'll make money anyway, much more if they take the title though. Thinking of betting Dallas on the spread on this game as well. Nothing big but it looks like a close game.

[bleek88]

Dallas tomorrow ML. +220 few hundys on it

[LVBOUND]

I got the heat but I am starting to get worried

[INVEGA MAN]

You guys are forgetting the most important thing and that is home teams will egt the call. The charging calls called on Miami will not be called in Miami. BOOKS KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING WITH MAKING THE LINE AT -6. bE CAREFULL here

[obamaismyuncle]

Mavs should win this game easily

[hugh4310]

Everyone on Mavs in here, I'm taking the Heat in a blowout!

[Goat Milk]

Mavs should win this game easily

you admitted you never watch basketball. you shouldn't be betting this game.

[lakerboy]

Bro i think you should really consider that this ML drop is normal. The same exact thing happened with Boston-LA last year in Game 6.

did it? but lal were also -125 for the series price going into game 6. i dont see that comparison this year. i also saw that bos closed +6 last year and opened at 6. the line movement in this game is real. dallas at +6 is what i got and i like my position. miami might win the game but i think 6 points is pretty big against this dallas team. the mavs smell blood and have the vets to put away the heat.

[jpot34]

Miami wins this game, and most likely cover. GL LB!

[RITZ]

Dallas tomorrow ML. +220 few hundys on it

Love the play but still like the points considering how tight each game has been. It won't come easy that's for sure.
Maybe play the +5 points and or with the Series price with Dallas -105

[the_situation]

might just grab Mavs ML....I think they will pull it out or lose by 6+

[t-wizzle]

did it? but lal were also -125 for the series price going into game 6. i dont see that comparison this year. i also saw that bos closed +6 last year and opened at 6. the line movement in this game is real. dallas at +6 is what i got and i like my position. miami might win the game but i think 6 points is pretty big against this dallas team. the mavs smell blood and have the vets to put away the heat.

I can't blame you for taking the 6. But the line opened at 5.5 ... So is the drop to 5 that big of a deal? I don't think it's as big as people think. Miami should win this game by around 10.

[t-wizzle]

Also, i pointed out in my thread that last year Boston raised to around +270 and closer around +220. This year, the scenario is very similar.

[marcoloco]

heat in a blow out