umpires and totals

[ebbearsfb1]

i was reading on here or somewhere about certain umpires are known under ups and others are over ups... besides balls and strikes how do umpires really effect the totals of games?
because its not like a sport like basketball where a ref can slow or speed up tempo.



i have found 2 under umps, as well as one over ump

[ebbearsfb1]

guess no at sbr has a clue?

[stogies]

some times if you get on a umpire early in season and he trends strong 1 way or other you can make some money. mostly ump info dont mean a thing to capping outcome.

[Bob Loblaw]

I don't really understand the question. Besides balls and strikes? It all comes back to balls and strikes. Not only when the ump himself calls balls and strikes but the way it affects both the hitters and pitchers on every pitch in the game. If you have an ump giving extended corners then the pitcher will try to live out there all day while the batter knows he needs to protect the plate even if it means him swinging at something he normally wouldn't swing at. Huge advantage to the pitcher. Vice versa too. When the ump is forcing the pitcher to thrown it down the heart of the plate to get a strike called then the batter can zone in and tee off. A lot of times a game is completely out of an umps hands but consistent bias and results to one side of a total like a Miller or Eddings have had for over a decade now isn't coincidental.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think any umpire effect on a game is mostly coincidental. You can spot trends for just about any stat and how it relates to a team or game if you look deep enough. So many variables in baseball. Don't think the umps can control all of that unless they are blatantly cheating.

[ebbearsfb1]

thanks bob,and eale see you guys both feel different about it, got. 2 big und umps and 1 big over guy… hirschbeck. Was a push yesterday. Gotta use labby lines for like 4 or 5 umps, as it won't have a lot of plays as they don't work every day

[Bob Loblaw]

I think any umpire effect on a game is mostly coincidental. You can spot trends for just about any stat and how it relates to a team or game if you look deep enough. So many variables in baseball. Don't think the umps can control all of that unless they are blatantly cheating.

Gotta disagree.

It's not a coincidence a guy like Bill Miller has hit Unders at a 58% clip since 1999 in a 359 game sample size. Only 1 year in 11 did he call more Overs than Unders and that year he barely accomplished that feat at 17-16.

It's not a coincidence a guy like Doug Eddings has hit Unders at a 59% clip since 1999 in a 349 game sample size. Like Miller, only 1 year in 11 did he call more Overs than Unders and he also barely accomplished that feat at 16-14.

Or a coincidence a guy like Jim Reynolds has hit Overs at 63% in the 4 years since his year off spanning a 123 game sample size. In each of the 4 years he finished the year at a minimum of 61% Overs.

You can see their Over/Under tendencies with your own two eyes when you watch them behind the dish. It's not as simple as saying 'this is an Under ump so this game will go Under' but it is another key factor to use when capping games.

[ebbearsfb1]

Bob where do u get all ur umpire info from? I'm gonna run a labby with like 5 or 6 umps, 0n average how many games does a guy ump every year? And bob who are your top over umps? Top under umps?

[Boxing Champ]

i have a better question.. Where do you go, to find out who is umping what game on any day????

[CHAZ]

Dexter keeps track of them.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/916769-dexters-2011-mlb-plays.html

List of umps and the over/unders

http://www.thespread.com/stats/mlb/umpirestats?sortby=umpire

[Hip2Bsq]

Google logicalapproach for ump stats

[Bob Loblaw]

Bob where do u get all ur umpire info from? I'm gonna run a labby with like 5 or 6 umps, 0n average how many games does a guy ump every year? And bob who are your top over umps? Top under umps?

Covers has ump info

I would guess average is around 33 or so.

I like the Under guys mostly. My favorites are Miller, Eddings, Hirschbeck, Carlson, Estabrook,, Fletcher, Foster.

Not too many Over guys for me. Reynolds is the only one that stands out.

[ebbearsfb1]

I'm gonna check all those sites out, I see cb buckner is a good overs ump, thanks hope these sites work at the work comp

[ebbearsfb1]

The spread is a rwal good site, and boxing about a half hour before game check the box score part, shows whose behind the plate

[LGHT]

I was watching the col-chi game last Friday and the ump had a HUGE impact on the game. Around the 5th inning a Chicago hitter got called out on strikes and pissed off the ump by lightly spraying him with spit in the face. The next inning the ump called an OBVIOUS ball a strike and the hitter was called out on strikes. Of course he got in the umps face, but the ump wasn't done yet.

Throughout the rest of the game there where 4 more batters called out on strikes from Chicago and they where ALL BALLS!! The ump was clearly pissed off, and wanted to send a message to Chicago. Basically if you had 2 strikes against you and the pitch was even remotely close to the plate he called the hitter out. It was amazing to see how far off the plate these pitches where, but still counted as strikes. On the flip side the Chicago pitcher couldn't buy a strike. The game ended 5-0 for Colorado with the cubs yelling and screaming the entire game!

[pokerplayer22]

Check out Wally Bell's over/under stats when he's behind the plate. May be the biggest trend in baseball.

[ebbearsfb1]

So bell is a big time unders ump? I have like 15 guys picked out

[eatdust11]

Umpires play a huge role in the game... my biggest 'under' umps... Eddings, Miller, Hirschbeck... biggest 'over' Holbrook, Crawford, McClelland...

[ebbearsfb1]

I wanna lower it down to no more then 10 umps total, I. Figure that's fine as its not like they will all ump every same night

[Bob Loblaw]

Umpires play a huge role in the game... my biggest 'under' umps... Eddings, Miller, Hirschbeck... biggest 'over' Holbrook, Crawford, McClelland...

I liked Crawford too but he retired

[iceminers26]

Its all about the ump's strike zone

If you have an ump that has a generous strike zone, pitchers that can paint corners will do away hitters 9 times out of 10. Take a pitcher like Josh Johnson painting the outside corner at the knees with 95 MPH fastball and see how many hitters make contact. Pitchers will take advantage of this wide strike zone and hitters will have to adjust, forcing them out of their comfort zone.

Now on the otherhand, if you have an ump with a tight strike zone, pitchers will have to give in and bring it into the middle of the plate more. Plus this could lead to more walks as well.

[stogies]

one big problem with betting these umps is finding out what crew is doing the 1st game of a series. even today in la theres rumors that the crew that worked the 1st three games of the braves and dodgers is going to change from wally bells crew to gary darlings.

[ebbearsfb1]

Wally bell is the home plate home, no change, if you just check before the game its fine, not sure how that's a problem? Is wally an over or under guy?

[iceminers26]

Wally bell is the home plate home, no change, if you just check before the game its fine, not sure how that's a problem? Is wally an over or under guy?

He is 1-2 to the under with an average of 7 runs per game

Here is link to every ump's stats:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/umpires.html

[clamchowder]

It's good to see that you're still here eb.

[eatdust11]

Knew I hadn't seem him this year.. didn't know he was done.. guess I'll substitute Reynolds as my other great 'over' ump then!

I liked Crawford too but he retired

[ebbearsfb1]

It's good to see that you're still here eb.

thanks wasnt a fan of that thread, this everyone knows the play and its not o well it could be a play ofr me but not you or vice versa

[ebbearsfb1]

Bill Miller under Over Unders
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
james hoyes under Over Unders
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
Doug Edding under Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
John Hirshbeck-under over unders 1 Push
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Mark Carlson under Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Sam Holbrook Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Tim Mcllelland Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Jim Reyonlds Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Jeff Kellog Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
CB Bucknor over overs unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5

[timmyboy34243]

Bill Miller under Over Unders
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
james hoyes under Over Unders
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
Doug Edding under Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
John Hirshbeck-under over unders 1 Push
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Mark Carlson under Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Sam Holbrook Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Tim Mcllelland Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Jim Reyonlds Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
Jeff Kellog Over Over Unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5
CB Bucknor over overs unders
5-5-5-5
5-5-5-5

i'll look forward to your tracking this, it will also help me understand using labby lines as a management tool. thanks......

[Ralphie Halves]

Have we found any better sources for knowing who is behind the plate in each game? Better than MLB.com that is??

[ebbearsfb1]

No best I know is hour or so b4 the game starts but after game 1 the guys rotate

[ebbearsfb1]

Sam holbrook over marlins cashes 3rd inning

[ebbearsfb1]

Under doug elling in mets is shot, manager wants to leave happ in

[HoulihansTX]

Have we found any better sources for knowing who is behind the plate in each game? Better than MLB.com that is??

Covers.com

Once the first game is played of a series, then an automatic rotation sets in. So on Game 2 of any series the umpire will be listed the morning of said game.

[pokerplayer22]

So bell is a big time unders ump? I have like 15 guys picked out

Wally Bell is notoriously an under ump, ( i think somewhere around 64% since the start of '08) although i think this year unders are 2-2 when he is behind the plate.