Trying out new System... would love input

Vaioice · 04-03-11, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by Vaioice

MLB Favoring Giants ML -105

SF Game Estimator
SF 3.7 EDGE SF
LA 2.4
SF Powerline
Cain -138
Lilly +138

Cain finally got the monkey off his back and earned hits first win vs the Dodgers.

* SAN FRANCISCO is 29-14 (+14.3 Units) against the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

* SF 25-11 +15.6 (+15.6x ) after 2 straight games with 1 or less extra base hits
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 2.8

*Out of L10 Series, only once has a team won 3 in a row.

* SF is 53-27 (+26.7x) after a loss by 2 runs or less ov the last 3 seasons.

MLB Favoring Texas ML -115

SF Games exstimator
Redsox 3.6
Texas 4.6 EDGE Texas
SF Powerline:
Lackey +135
Lewis -135

*BOSTON is 6-14 (-15.6 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 4.4, OPPONENT 5.5
*All games at TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 8-2 (+7.0 Units) against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons

TED BARRETT- game stats when serving as the home plate umpire
Home Team Record Last 3 Seasons W/L 49-23 +18.7

Favoring NY ISlanders ML +120,

Ov 5.5 -119

STATFOX GAME ESTIMATOR™
Projected Score CAROLINA WARD(goalie) 3.4 NY ISLANDERS LAWSON(goalie) 3.4
Total 6.8 EDGE on the OVer 5.5 -119
Both Goalie ratings : 3.1

*NY ISLANDERS are 21-13 ATS (+35.6 Units) in home games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances in the 2nd half of the year over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY ISLANDERS 3.4, OPPONENT 2.

*Islanders off of home win is 11-3 Overs
*Carolina off a home win by 2 goals or more:
This season 1-8 w/L -7.7x, O/U 8-1
Last 3 Seasons 16-21 -4.3x, O/U 27-9

*Carolina off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more:
This season 0-6 W/LL -6.6x, O/U 5-1
Last 3 Seasons 9-14 w/L -5.4x, O/U 17-5

-vai

3-1, will run couple more tomorrow.

pennsylvania209 · 04-03-11, 12:21 AM

Congratulations on today. gl tomorrow

Vaioice · 04-03-11, 10:17 AM

Here we go again...

NY Rangers +135
Under 5.5 Rangers/Flyers -130

Statfox Game Estimator Score: Total 4.6
NY Rangers Lundqvist 2.6 - 2.0 Bobrovsky Philll
Edge: Rangers

Statfox Powerline / PR line
Lundqvist 3.4 Est Line -126
Bobrovsky +3 Est Line +126
Edge: Rangers

NY RANGERS are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
The average score was NY RANGERS 3.3, OPPONENT 1.3 - (Rating = 5*)
NY RANGERS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was NY RANGERS 3.7, OPPONENT 1.4 - (Rating = 2*)
NY RANGERS are 8-2 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY RANGERS 3.2, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA is 17-4 UNDER (+13.3 Units) after a division game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.6, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 4*)
PHILADELPHIA is 24-9 UNDER (+14.4 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.7, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 3*)
NY RANGERS are 30-12 UNDER (+17.6 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season.
The average score was NY RANGERS 2.5, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 3*)
NY RANGERS are 11-3 UNDER (+8.3 Units) in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY RANGERS 2.2, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 1*

-vai

Vaioice · 04-03-11, 02:26 PM

NY Rangers +135 W
Under 5.5 Rangers/Flyers -130 W

2-0

-vai

System 5-1

kfranz31 · 04-03-11, 03:20 PM

system looks good look forward to monday

dave6755 · 04-03-11, 05:29 PM

Great job on your system > I will be tailing

Vaioice · 04-04-11, 08:10 AM

Favoring Ov 9 Pirates/Cards -110

Morton 9-1 Overs when total is 9-9.5 on road
ERA 9.5 vs Cards last 3 Seasons
ERA 6.3 on road
AVG .479 vs St. Louis

Lohse 4-2 Overs when total is 9-9.5 last season
ERA 5.97 vs Pitt last 2 seasons
ERA 5.67 @ Busch stadium
AVG .389 vs Pirates

Statfox Game Estimator
Pitt 4.8
St. L 6.4
Total 11.2 EDGE OVER

Accuscore Sims
Pitt 4.1
St. L 6.0
Total 10.1 EDGE OVER

-vai

Play Over - All teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - team that had a terrible record last season (<=38%) playing a team had a winning record last year, vs. division opponents.
(38-12 since 1997.) (76%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 9, Money Line=-103.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 6.7 (Total runs scored = 11.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 31 (60.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3, +9.9 units).

Augustus · 04-04-11, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Vaioice

Play Over - All teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - team that had a terrible record last season (<=38%) playing a team had a winning record last year, vs. division opponents.
(38-12 since 1997.) (76%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 9, Money Line=-103.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 6.7 (Total runs scored = 11.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 31 (60.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3, +9.9 units).

Just curious, where do you get this system?

Vaioice · 04-04-11, 11:19 AM

that isn't a system, those are filters that i use form the foxsheets.

-vai

Vaioice · 04-05-11, 04:19 AM

Ov 9 Pitt/Cards L

System Record 5-2

Today's Play

3* SF ML -128
2* SF -1.5 +138

Harang is 9-26 vs vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season

BUMGARNER is 6-1 after team loss
10/31/10 @ TEX W 4-0 Tommy Hunter (R)
09/23/10 @ CHC W 13-0 Ryan Dempster (R)
07/19/10 @ LA W 5-2 James McDonald (R)
09/06/10 @ ARI W 2-0 Ian Kennedy (R)
08/31/10 COL W 5-2 Esmil Rogers (R)
08/09/10 CHC W 4-3 Carlos Zambrano (R)
07/01/10 @ COL L 3-7 Aaron Cook (R)
4/5 road games would've covered -1.5 80%

BUMGARNER 9-2 when ML is +125 to -125
10/20/10 PHI W 6-5 Joe Blanton (R) W 101 *
10/11/10 @ ATL W 3-2 Derek Lowe (R) W 123
09/23/10 @ CHC W 13-0 Ryan Dempster (R) W 106
09/11/10 @ SD L 0-1 Tim Stauffer (R) L 106
09/06/10 @ ARI W 2-0 Ian Kennedy (R) W -101
08/25/10 CIN L 11-12 Homer Bailey (R) L -116 *
08/14/10 SD W 3-2 Mat Latos (R) W 109 *
07/24/10 @ ARI W 10-4 Ian Kennedy (R) W -101
07/19/10 @ LA W 5-2 James McDonald (R) W 101
07/11/10 @ WAS W 6-2 Livan Hernandez (R) W 109
07/06/10 @ MIL W 6-1 Randy Wolf (L) W 128
6/8 road games would've covered the -1.5 75%

-vai

Vaioice · 04-05-11, 07:22 AM

5* Rangers RL +119
5* Reds RL +133
4* Indians ML +134
3* Angels RL +154
3* Ov 9 +115
3* Giants ML -128
2* Giants RL +138
for some reason it kept on spittin out plays today...
might have to retweak

-vai

System 0201: 5-2 +14.75x

PlayTheSpread · 04-05-11, 09:01 PM

Looks like you're getting this thing dialed in now Vai...looking good!

Vaioice · 04-06-11, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by Vaioice

5* Rangers RL +119

so close...
5* Reds RL +133

4* Indians ML +134

3* Angels RL +154

3* Ov 9 +115

3* Giants ML -128

2* Giants RL +138

for some reason it kept on spittin out plays today...
might have to retweak

3-4 +2.79

-vai

System 0201: 8-6 +17.84x

Vaioice · 04-06-11, 08:38 AM

System Play: 5* Arizona +155

-vai

Vaioice · 04-06-11, 09:00 AM

5* Padres +135
5* CLeveland
4* Rangers RL +175
3* TB Rays -102
3* Mets +130

-vai

SEAHAWKHARRY · 04-06-11, 09:00 AM

Looking good starting to tail

SEAHAWKHARRY · 04-06-11, 09:02 AM

What would the cleveland line be ....v

Soon2BRich · 04-06-11, 09:02 AM

im a little confused, your record isnt spectacular but you've made alot of units. Whats your unit size for your plays?

Vaioice · 04-06-11, 05:09 PM

this system is all about ROI, its a project i'm working on. its about getting the best price and playing at +EV. i still expect to hit @ 55% but will be betting at +EV.

-vai

Vaioice · 04-06-11, 06:41 PM

3* ST Louis Blues +170

Vaioice · 04-06-11, 11:08 PM

5* Arizona +155 W +7.55
5* Padres +135 L -5.00
5* CLeveland +138 W+6.9
4* Rangers RL +175 W +7.00
3* TB Rays -102 L -3.06
3* Mets +130 L - 3.00
3* ST Louis Blues +170 L -3.00
4/6 01:45PMPittsburgh Pirates +178Pittsburgh Pirates 3 - 1+5.34
4/6 01:45PMUNDER 7.5-130Pittsburgh Pirates 3 - 1+5.00

System 0210 13-10 +35.57x

-vai

QuantumLeap · 04-06-11, 11:25 PM

I like the idea that you're using the ML. This helps lessen any opinion from the linesmaker.

Granted, the linesmaker puts a line on the ML but with these types of lopsided results there has to be a net gain.

Rod1010 · 04-06-11, 11:29 PM

what are ur plays for today?

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 02:39 AM

3* Bulls -4.5

This game will definately have playoff atmosphese. With the talent the Bulls have, and how they've been clicking. i just don't see the Celtics hanging in there. I've got this game around -7 but with the off. rebounding edge the Bulls have, and their stellar record @ home, i'm very confident they pull it out.

Play On - Home favorites (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(49-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +24.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 103.2, Opponent 93.9 (Average point differential = +9.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (45.1% of all games

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season.
(180-108 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +61.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (215-78 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 103.5, Opponent 95.8 (Average point differential = +7.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 101 (35.3% of all games.)

Celtics are 3-7 ATS on the road following a blowout win
Bulls are 4-1 @ home following a close win

Stats and trends aside, i think Bulls are the better/younger version of the Celtics. And @ home they are just beastly. Lets ride this one to the bank.

-vai

SEAHAWKHARRY · 04-07-11, 02:44 AM

Great work yesterday....looking foward to today

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 03:07 AM

4* Toronto on the RL +175

OAKLAND CAHILL 3.7 +162
TORONTO ROMERO 4.9 -162 = EDGE

CAHILL is 0-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 8.05 and a WHIP of 1.916.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)
Opening Money Line: Home=-115 (Road=+105), Closing Money Line: Home=-110 (Road=+100)
Since 1997, the home team won the game 1194 times, while the road team won straight up 997 times. (Home=+95.8 units, Road=-198 units)
Edge against the money line=TORONTO
OAKLAND is 2-16 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 2.4, OPPONENT 4.7
OAKLAND is 8-24 (-14.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 3.2, OPPONENT 4.8
TORONTO is 43-21 (+15.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 5.5, OPPONENT 3.8
TORONTO is 36-14 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 5.4, OPPONENT 3.

-vai

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 08:48 AM

3* White Sox RL +180

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 09:05 AM

4* Cleveland +164
3* FF White Sox -.5 +115
2* FF Pitt -.5 +120
1* Cleveland -1.5 +305

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 09:19 AM

2* Minnesota +134
3* Ov 9 +130 Rockies/Pitt

-vai

i think thats it for today, unless somethin special comes up. BoL to all

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 09:33 AM

might have somethin on Cinci/Houston.... very big if it goes... 10x ... about 30 before game time will know.

-vai

SEAHAWKHARRY · 04-07-11, 11:06 AM

Anything yet on cincy game?

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 11:22 AM

Houston is a go!
5* Astros ML +128
3* Astros -.5 +160 FF
1* Astros -1.5 +200

-vai

D3 Mighty Ducks · 04-07-11, 11:32 AM

On the Jays, Red Socks RL and Houston..GL with this system. Its been working thus far stick with it

Vaioice · 04-07-11, 11:43 PM

i think this is right....

5* Astros ML +6.4 W
4* Cleveland +164 W +6.56
4* Toronto on the RL +175 L -4.00
3* Bulls -4.5 +102 W +3.06
3* Astros -.5 +160 FF W +4.8
3* White Sox RL +180 W 5.4
3* FF White Sox -.5 +115 W 3.45
3* Ov 9 +130 Rockies/Pitt L -3.00
2* Minnesota +134 L -2.00
2* FF Pitt -.5 +120 L -2.00
1* Cleveland -1.5 +305 L -1.00
1* Astros -1.5 +200 L -1

6-6 +17.67x

-vai

System "0210" record: 19-16 + 52.24x