Are Totals Going To Be Lower In NFL By Moving Kickoffs To 35?

[jjgold]

Still rarely going to see long run banks anymore where teams start on the 50 or something like that
Will take longer to score

[McBa1n]

The ball stays on the 20 if downed and gets spotted at the 40 if kicked out of bounds, like normal.
I think you'll see around the same returns for scores. An important caveat, if I remember correctly, is that players will have 5 yards to start their run to cover the kick, instead of 15 yards. This is a great equalizer and might actually increase scoring. Not so much that players will return the kicks (although it should be worth the gamble in most situations), but it might create an extra amount of time for the returner to get up the field. Remember, most NFL player's straight line speed can take 20-30 yards to generate, by limiting that time, you create tenths/hundredths of seconds in critical situations on making plays on kicks. How it will play is tough to figure out exactly, but it's quite possible team's starting position averages won't change as much as you'd think, and that's where the real impact on totals will come in - starting field position.

[mrpooh]

i would think at first no change, since no on knows

[kingdom]

Will not significantly change things.

i agree. i was a much better gambler before i started over analyzing everything...

[Skidcom]

It was the first thing I thought

[actionjunkee]

yeah lame. and wayyy more touchbacks right??

[zoso11871]

Yes-I think this will make for slightly lower totals.

[iwantcougars]

i think it will maintain in the same range, except for great game management (manning, rodgers and the like), can increase the chance of putting points, but it will make the 1q tota more hard to cap

[iwantcougars]

after some research yeah it will make some difference, since the touchback will have the ball on the 20 instead of 25 as proposed, kickers will go for touchbacks. Less scoring due there will be less returns and more touchbacks

[cloudagh]

You have to believe that some people somewhere are going to go huge on this for the first few games.

[McBa1n]

I want to bring back the point that players will be given 5 yards MAXIMUM to start their runs on kick return coverage, unlike the last 1 billion years of the NFL. This is a big deal. According to Elias information, moving the ball back (in the 5 years prior to rule change and 5 years after rule change) from the 35 to the 30, TDs from kick returns doubled, on average. That alone is 1.x-2.0 points per game. However, with the current changes and things I explained earlier in this thread about player maximum speed, it's likely to be .5-1.x TOPS. I think, it is conceivable, that kick returns for TDs can go in any direction.

Touchbacks under the same Elias criteria yielded something like 1 in 6 more touchbacks per kickoff. I think that number will move to 1 in 5 (maybe 2-5% more), with so many 'kick off specialists' but crappy FG kickers ala Cundiff in Baltimore. But you also have to consider, that teams may NOT employ a 3rd kicker on their roster based on this change. Guys like Ryan Longwell will NEVER hit the endzone outdoors - and same with a dickload of kickers. Also, with the change - kickers are more inclined to have less altitude on balls and try to drive their kickoffs 6+ yrds deep in the endzone. This creates HUGE problems for kickers as it's easy to screw up technique trying to kick the ball on a lower trajectory. Also, when a ball is kicked on a more driven than 'hang time' trajectory, it gives the returner upwords of .5 seconds and sometimes more, of making decisions in the open field.

I think you have to take into account player's ability for maximum speed in a shorter window. One thing a DICKLOAD of NFL players lack is acceleration to max-speed on kick coverage. Max speed takes quite awhile in most situations on the field. Most players have most of their explosion in small windows, but not in straight line speed.

This is getting silly now in breaking it down, but I still think this change might drop the 'norm' 1 point, at best, on totals. You also have to take into account that offenses during the previous 35 to 30 change did not have the same rules to benefit receivers, which made totals increase. The only guys it WILL impact are guys like Brad Smith or Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs (my fav NFL player), only just. Great players still find the end zone. I think it might actually help the BETTER special teamers only just. a hundredth of a second is a long time in the NFL. If you give the best that - they are gone.

[Frostware]

I would think lower and slower.

[Igetp2s]

I want to bring back the point that players will be given 5 yards MAXIMUM to start their runs on kick return coverage, unlike the last 1 billion years of the NFL. This is a big deal. According to Elias information, moving the ball back (in the 5 years prior to rule change and 5 years after rule change) from the 35 to the 30, TDs from kick returns doubled, on average. That alone is 1.x-2.0 points per game. However, with the current changes and things I explained earlier in this thread about player maximum speed, it's likely to be .5-1.x TOPS. I think, it is conceivable, that kick returns for TDs can go in any direction. Touchbacks under the same Elias criteria yielded something like 1 in 6 more touchbacks per kickoff. I think that number will move to 1 in 5 (maybe 2-5% more), with so many 'kick off specialists' but crappy FG kickers ala Cundiff in Baltimore. But you also have to consider, that teams may NOT employ a 3rd kicker on their roster based on this change. Guys like Ryan Longwell will NEVER hit the endzone outdoors - and same with a dickload of kickers. Also, with the change - kickers are more inclined to have less altitude on balls and try to drive their kickoffs 6+ yrds deep in the endzone. This creates HUGE problems for kickers as it's easy to screw up technique trying to kick the ball on a lower trajectory. Also, when a ball is kicked on a more driven than 'hang time' trajectory, it gives the returner upwords of .5 seconds and sometimes more, of making decisions in the open field. I think you have to take into account player's ability for maximum speed in a shorter window. One thing a DICKLOAD of NFL players lack is acceleration to max-speed on kick coverage. Max speed takes quite awhile in most situations on the field. Most players have most of their explosion in small windows, but not in straight line speed. This is getting silly now in breaking it down, but I still think this change might drop the 'norm' 1 point, at best, on totals. You also have to take into account that offenses during the previous 35 to 30 change did not have the same rules to benefit receivers, which made totals increase. The only guys it WILL impact are guys like Brad Smith or Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs (my fav NFL player), only just. Great players still find the end zone. I think it might actually help the BETTER special teamers only just. a hundredth of a second is a long time in the NFL. If you give the best that - they are gone.

What difference does all that make if the kicker can kick the ball out of the end zone? Nobody else on the field matters anymore.

[dngf]

I think it will be less than 1/2 point, so probably unnoticeable in totals/

[iQon]

Why would totals go up because of touchbacks? The average field position from kickoffs were routinely at the 25 yard line, or better every year. Losing 5 yards is huge.

Anyway, I think there's potential teams will work on hangtime and kickoffs will resemble punt returns. There could be a lot of fair catches inside the 10 yard line. I don't think linesmakers will be able to adjust from Opening Week, though.

[iwantcougars]

Mcba1n interesting stuff. Yeah i think there will be more fair catches inside the 20, which will held the scoring considerably, and there will be fewer returns to the 40-50 yards so scoring will be a little hard for most teams

[Domestic]

Probably a one point difference or so.

[BetWeather]

it will make a big difference in totals !!!!

A teams chance of scoring when starting from the 40 rather
than the 20 yrd line is 35% to 40% greater !

3 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 4.5 point
drop in total averages.

2 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 3 point
drop in total averages.


Going to be slamming the under the first 2 weeks of the season.

[mwhelan11]

yes total lines will be affected but you can find great value because will be off

[BetWeather]

Unfortunately I am a Chiefs fan !!!!

We need the ball on the 40 at least 3 times a game to
have any chance

[SBRMAN23]

If you think about a lot of players Dnt take back a bunch of tds on kickofff so with more touchbacks more time stays .on the clock instead of some one wasting seconds all the time taking it out and only getting to the 20 anyway

[SportsBettingPro]

The difference will be minimal -> maybe 1/2 point on average. You have to keep in mind that if a possession doesn't lead to a score the -5 yards difference (theoretically) results in +5 yards for the other team. So, it only really makes a difference for drives that end right on the boundary between FG and punt and (maybe) TD and FG.

That said, it is highly possible the public will hit this "angle" hard, driving the early totals below fair value, so this might result in off totals none-the-less.

[AlphaOmega]

Let's get the season going on first then we van argue about this more

[BetWeather]

The difference will be minimal -> maybe 1/2 point on average. You have to keep in mind that if a possession doesn't lead to a score the -5 yards difference (theoretically) results in +5 yards for the other team. So, it only really makes a difference for drives that end right on the boundary between FG and punt and (maybe) TD and FG.

That said, it is highly possible the public will hit this "angle" hard, driving the early totals below fair value, so this might result in off totals none-the-less.

it will make a big difference in totals !!!!

A teams chance of scoring when starting from the 40 rather
than the 20 yrd line is 35% to 40% greater !

3 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 4.5 point
drop in total averages.

2 more touch-backs in a game will result in a 3 point
drop in total averages.


Going to be slamming the under the first 2 weeks of the season.

[actionjunkee]

yeah it'll make a significant difference i think.

[BetWeather]

Going to be slamming the under the first 2 weeks of the season.

[AlphaOmega]

I will see how the line movement is before I make my play. Vegas will always be prepared for situations like this.

[vitalyo]

Unfortunately I am a Chiefs fan !!!!

We need the ball on the 40 at least 3 times a game to
have any chance

LOL .

[McBa1n]

What difference does all that make if the kicker can kick the ball out of the end zone? Nobody else on the field matters anymore.

This is why I made the point on kickers 'shanking' kicks more often. Imagine swinging a golf club and trying to get that extra distance - it creates a greater chance for a mishit ball. Also, that means the ball will likely not travel as high as kicks previously were, going for the 'out of the endzone' kick, meaning returners will have more time (1/2 a second to a full second) more time in space, coupled with the extra time gained from players coming down the field slightly slower, should the ball not land out of the endzone.

I agree, most kickers are going to try to boot it out of the endzone - I expect that there will be more touchbacks. But I also expect a lot more ineffective kick offs and potentially more space for a returner (only just).

[LVHerbie]

Obviously it is going to affect scoring but also depends on any adjustments being made to the numbers...

[Onefreedm1nd]

I don't see it making that much of a difference but it kills my guy J Cribbs in fantasy

[steve18]

Interesting question.

[darren125]

I think changes in the totals would be more reactive.

[BetWeather]

Field position is HUGE.

[Wrecktangle]

With the lockout and both sides waiting until the last moment to settle, and then if nobody plays or trains until the first game, it's difficult to say just where totals will go to.

National F*cked-up League.