SSK's NBA Thread

[MartinBlank]

With any sensible staking plan, your 'unit' size would rise and fall along with your bankroll.
Ask your Money Management team to read up on Kelly Criterion.

SSK is probably doing a google search of Kelly Clarkson right now as I type this.....

[ssk13809]

You can't possibly be this dumb.

Okay, let's go with your premise. The Bulls are a guaranteed winner.

You are risking 7.7 units for the Bulls (+1) to win-----because to cash your bet the Bulls have to win the game. Laying 7.7 juice----nets you 7 units if the Bulls win. Now----follow closely---and pay attention-----if you risked those 7.7 units on the Bulls to win ML----the payout is 8.3 units.

You just left 1.3 units on the table.

Get it now sparky?

While you may not care or understand the value in that------guys who tail you consider such foolish betting to be, f'in stupid. Know what I mean?

You don't get it. When I looked at this Bulls game, I told myself "I want to win 7 units". Period. Now if Bulls are the guaranteed winner, whether I bet ATS or ML, I will win 7 units. The "risk" amount is irrelevant if Bulls are the guaranteed winner.

[FourLengthsClear]

When you hit 65% Long-Term, the "general Money Management Rules" don't apply. My team knows that. Besides, you aren't factoring in the ANALYST PROJECTIONS, who are usually right.

Actually if you do hit 65%, utilising Kelly Criterion would be an excellent way maximise your profits.

Not sure who your analysts are but if they are so good, why don't you fire the Teaser Team, Parlay Team, Hedging Team and the Hail Mary team and just get them to give you the plays?

[FourLengthsClear]

You don't get it. When I looked at this Bulls game, I told myself "I want to win 7 units". Period. Now if Bulls are the guaranteed winner, whether I bet ATS or ML, I will win 7 units. The "risk" amount is irrelevant if Bulls are the guaranteed winner.

Oh dear Lord.

[thadchr]

So for the purpose of record keeping (ouman, others...), these (below) are the exact bets/units we should be using for today's action? I edited your post only by formatting a few lines for emphasis and adding the "to win" amount for your first teaser. Is this all Correct??

So all my plays today so we can keep track

76ers -2.5
Risk 18 to Win 15


Bulls +1
Risk 7.7 to Win 7


Warriors -4.5
Risk 5.5 to Win 5


Hedge Bet:
...combine
3 Team Teaser
-- Heat -2.5
-- Thunder -2.5
-- Jazz -0.5
Risk 12 to Win 10

&
TimberWolves +265 ML
Risk 5 to Win 13.25


2 Team Teaser
-- Knicks +11.5
-- Suns +8.5
Risk 5.5 to Win 5


3 Team Teaser
-- Heat -2.5
-- Thunder -2.5
-- Nuggets -1.5
Risk 6 to Win 5

Also, as for the first teaser/hedge, two things:
1)We're all on the same page in that if the T-Wolves win, then the teaser itself loses, though a net 1.25 units are gained? If the Jazz beat the T-Wolves and the teaser still loses, we're looking at a net loss of 17 units? Both correct?
2)Just wanted to point out that your two teasers are identical except for that the second replaces the Jazz with the Nuggets. If either the Heat or Thunder don't cover 2.5, respectively, you're looking at combined loss of 18% of your bankroll just on those two teasers... just making sure this is all correct? Definitely not saying you're going to lose (I hope you don't), but just in case you do.

Did I get everything 100% right here? Tomorrow's official opening record will be based on these numbers?

[LChruscial85]

You don't get it. When I looked at this Bulls game, I told myself "I want to win 7 units". Period. Now if Bulls are the guaranteed winner, whether I bet ATS or ML, I will win 7 units. The "risk" amount is irrelevant if Bulls are the guaranteed winner.

SSK you would win more money! That's the point! it's a 1 pt spread, The game 99 times out of 100..will not end with a one point win...especially with Fouling and crap....instead of winning 7 units you would win 8.3....MORE MONEY....quit bein stubborn, Martin is right, just admit it

[MartinBlank]

You don't get it. When I looked at this Bulls game, I told myself "I want to win 7 units". Period. Now if Bulls are the guaranteed winner, whether I bet ATS or ML, I will win 7 units. The "risk" amount is irrelevant if Bulls are the guaranteed winner.

You're still not getting this.

THE RISK IS THE SAME. Both bets risk 7.7. Get it?

Its the amount that you win that is the variable.

In your bet----you win 7 units.

Doing it my way---- you win 8.3 units.

Are you actually saying, you prefer less? Are you this stupid?

[thadchr]

Not sure where to find 3-team, 8-point teasers at -120 juice either, but it's very possible you found better lines or have book I don't, so if it's up to me, I'll trust your numbers.

[LChruscial85]

Not sure where to find 3-team, 8-point teasers at -120 juice either, but it's very possible you found better lines or have book I don't, so if it's up to me, I'll trust your numbers.

He says he uses Bookmaker, so I don't know if they do or not

[big0mar]

[ouman101]

Thanks ouman! Are you going to continue keeping and posting this detailed record? I'd be happy to give you some points tomorrow (when I get some) for your work if you are. Appreciate it!

Yes, I'll be keeping his record until this thread gets shut down or he quits posting. Only then will we see how accurate "I hit 75% ATS" really is.

He's not even counting my Risk 2 ML Hornets bet even though I got it on time and somebody tailed me.

This was noted right next to the day it happened, even before you got your panties in a bunch.

[ouman101]

Not sure where to find 3-team, 8-point teasers at -120 juice either, but it's very possible you found better lines or have book I don't, so if it's up to me, I'll trust your numbers.

He says he uses Bookmaker, so I don't know if they do or not

I only looked at 2 books and both have 8 point, 3 team basketball teasers. Bookmaker has it, but I can't see what juice they'll charge. I don't have any money in that acct. and the only way to tell is to cancel your bet just before the confirm screen because they don't show the odds when you click on the 8 point teaser. Bodog is the other book I looked at and they offer 8 point bball teasers at -110.

[Joe Sharp]

[LChruscial85]

I only looked at 2 books and both have 8 point, 3 team basketball teasers. Bookmaker has it, but I can't see what juice they'll charge. I don't have any money in that acct. and the only way to tell is to cancel your bet just before the confirm screen because they don't show the odds when you click on the 8 point teaser. Bodog is the other book I looked at and they offer 8 point bball teasers at -110.

Thanks for the FYI, I appreciate it!

[ssk13809]

Just picked up a Mathematician for my team. He is from MIT. I'll be good with the mathematics now. All I have to do is call him for help in math related posts.

[ssk13809]

So for the purpose of record keeping (ouman, others...), these (below) are the exact bets/units we should be using for today's action? I edited your post only by formatting a few lines for emphasis and adding the "to win" amount for your first teaser. Is this all Correct??




Also, as for the first teaser/hedge, two things:
1)We're all on the same page in that if the T-Wolves win, then the teaser itself loses, though a net 1.25 units are gained? If the Jazz beat the T-Wolves and the teaser still loses, we're looking at a net loss of 17 units? Both correct?
2)Just wanted to point out that your two teasers are identical except for that the second replaces the Jazz with the Nuggets. If either the Heat or Thunder don't cover 2.5, respectively, you're looking at combined loss of 18% of your bankroll just on those two teasers... just making sure this is all correct? Definitely not saying you're going to lose (I hope you don't), but just in case you do.

Did I get everything 100% right here? Tomorrow's official opening record will be based on these numbers?

Yes we are good. I'm down -1.7 units as of now

[MartinBlank]

Just picked up a Mathematician for my team. He is from MIT. I'll be good with the mathematics now. All I have to do is call him for help in math related posts.

You didn't need an MIT math wiz.

You need a $1.29 calculator.

[ssk13809]

If I could I wish I could pick my picks over again. My pick management team is not happy that I had to hedge. They never are. It over complicates things. I wish I just had Denver in their originally instead of Utah. Oh well.



But anyways, I'm worry-free. I have a LOCK play today. That will set the tone for the day. I'll be there live like all my LOCK games. But won't have any interactions with the players unfortunately. Still more fun to see it live though. Blowout.

[MartinBlank]

If I could I wish I could pick my picks over again. My pick management team is not happy that I had to hedge. They never are. It over complicates things. I wish I just had Denver in their originally instead of Utah. Oh well.



But anyways, I'm worry-free. I have a LOCK play today. That will set the tone for the day. I'll be there live like all my LOCK games. But won't have any interactions with the players unfortunately. Still more fun to see it live though. Blowout.

Too funny. Absolutely too funny.

[ssk13809]

2 other good news

1. MartinBlank won't be around this thread as the games start and finish

2. I will finally get to sleep

[demens]

Posting my LOCK

76ers -2.5
Risk 18 to Win 15


Easy cover. Will be flying to Philadelphia today. But not talking to anyone because I don't really know any of the players that well. Just watching the game. If you see a guy wearing a 76ers jersey it's probably me. That's my proof I went to the game and I don't make this sh*t up.

Well, i think i've had as much fun in this thread as possible. Dont even care how this turns out, i expect it to be ugly but it doesn't matter. Not gonna bother checking this thread anymore, the comedy got old pretty quick.

Really feel bad for Phillygimp though.

[ssk13809]

You're. Enough talk. It's time to do some winning.

[MartinBlank]

2 other good news

1. MartinBlank won't be around this thread as the games start and finish

2. I will finally get to sleep

I will definitely be around.

Guaranteed.

I am stepping out to play cards, but I will check back on the train wreck that will be this thread.

[JohnnyD4916]

My bankroll is $69,000 should I go almost all in on the 76ers? I'm thinking $55,000 on Philly -4

1/28/2011 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 802 Philadelphia 76ers* -4 -110 vs Memphis Grizzlies
Risking $55000.00 To Win $50000.00

I need this game I'm in big, I hope it wins. GOOD LUCK TO US

[ssk13809]

Good play

[phillybadboy]

good luck today guys

[ssk13809]

Giving my parlay team 1 more chance

3 Team Parlay
76ers -4
Bulls +100
Warriors -4
Risk 2 to Win 12.6

[ssk13809]

I feel like I'm the most excited for this game here in Philadelphia. I hope they help boo the Grizzlies with me.

[nyed1010]

He says he uses Bookmaker, so I don't know if they do or not

bookmaker offers the special 3-team 8-point teaser at -120. 2-0 so far using this teaser. Anyone have long-term profitability info on this teaser. I feel like it's easy $ if you pick the right games, but again, I've done it only a whopping 2 times and was fortunate to hit both times.

[FourLengthsClear]

bookmaker offers the special 3-team 8-point teaser at -120. 2-0 so far using this teaser. Anyone have long-term profitability info on this teaser. I feel like it's easy $ if you pick the right games, but again, I've done it only a whopping 2 times and was fortunate to hit both times.

I posted above.
Fair value is +108.

[ssk13809]

lol Wade scratched out of Miami game at last second

[ssk13809]

LeBron's teammates shooting 2/15 lol


Might have to hedge that in a halftime bet


I had some great picks, but these last second injuries are ruining it

[BeatTheJerk]

My bankroll is $69,000 should I go almost all in on the 76ers? I'm thinking $55,000 on Philly -4

1/28/2011 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 802 Philadelphia 76ers* -4 -110 vs Memphis Grizzlies
Risking $55000.00 To Win $50000.00

I need this game I'm in big, I hope it wins. GOOD LUCK TO US

What book ?

[JohnnyD4916]

What book ?

No book, I have nothing on this game. I wouldn't put $55000 on a game because someone posted it on the internet.

[BeatTheJerk]

No book, I have nothing on this game. I wouldn't put $55000 on a game because someone posted it on the internet.

Oh your mocking him. I get it.