Originally posted by gizmo2431
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Off-topic but your icon is awesome. Gremlins is 1 of my 2 favorite movies of all-time & i'm also a Yanks fan.Comment -
Originally posted by Ceei need help in bases as well. I know alot about bases and players, usually good in fantasy. But when it comes to capping, i never really figured out what to look for. Always playing favorites and waving goodbye to myself
can't play favs cee...after the tourney we'll look at stuff...don't bet too much the first 2-3 weeks of the season..let the rotations go through a couple of times and see what team is hot at the plate...betting the first week is the same as spring training really...you don't really know what you're going to get..Comment -
Betting baseball doesn't really start till april 15. (more or less)Comment -
That sucks man. It makes me soo angry to hear your story. What really set me off was that not only you got ripped, but the guy was threatning you. Unreal!!! When ESB owed me money I ran into a real douche bag who was threating me. I wish he would have tried meeting up with me. I would of filled that cocksucker full of lead. Sorry agan Curious.Comment -
Sorry about this curious. Sucks that you are leaving the game but Good Luck with all your future endeavors.Comment -
Eduardo Agami threatened me with physical violence. He also had Randall call my house and threaten to have me prosecuted for the denial of service attacks which were launched against Bet Royal during the end of the NFL season. They claimed that they were going to get some law enforcement agency in the European Union to prosecute me under cyber terrorism laws. I felt this was an idle threat but I had no choice but to hire a lawyer to protect me from this. (I had nothing to do with the denial of service attacks on Bet Royal).Originally posted by Thor4140
They were threatening me because I was putting a lot of pressure on them to pay the money they stole from me.Comment -
The most important baseball stats
THE most important thing that one does in statistical modeling, especially predictive modeling, is to pick the "right" variables and give them the correct weighting. Nothing else you do will even come close to affecting how effective the model is.
Knowing how to pick the "right" variables and give them the correct weighting is an art. It isn't something that can be taught. I think that a person is born with this ability. My colleagues and I call this the "abstraction" gene.
So, in trying to be a better handicapper I spent a lot of time looking at variables (stats) in trying to determine what the "right" ones were for each sport. For baseball I like runs per plate appearance for an offensive team stat. This stat is very predictive for run production. Of course to know who will win you have to know how many runs will be allowed, so for a pitching stat I like the corollary total runs allowed per opponent plate appearance. For defense I like put outs and assists per chance. A chance is a ball hit into a fielder's zone. Fielding percentage is meaningless in my opinion. I'll explain why I think that. Take a 3rd baseman like Brooks Robinson in his prime. If you hit a ball anywhere between the third base line and the shortstop with Brooks playing 3rd base you were out. Brooks had a put out per ball hit into his zone of something like .950. There are starting 3rd basemen in the game today who have put out per ball hit into the zone of less than .600. This stat is very telling because it tells you what the chances are of an opponent getting hits. Now what you do is look at the opposing lineup in terms of where each hitter in the lineup hits the most balls, and you matchup the appropriate fielder's put outs per chance ratio. This will tell you how a given lineup will fare against a given defense. If you were playing the Orioles during their heyday when they had the Robinson brothers, Boog Powell, Paul Blair, Don Buford, etc., you wanted hitters who hit the ball to the right side of the field. Powell was useless as a fielder, Johnson (at 2nd base) was okay, but his range wasn't that great, and Frank Robinson lacked range and speed in the outfield. If you hit the ball to the left side of the field you were out. Paul Blair wa one of the best fielding center fielders in baseball, Mark Ballinger was a great shortstop, Brooks of course was the best in the history of 3rd base, and Don Buford had excellent range and speed.
I'll post more on this later.Comment -
Since sports gambling didn't work for you and you got robbed like an amateur hooker on downtown Las Vegas strip I suggest you should quit before it's too late and you get your ass handed to you in a plastic dinner plate.Comment -
Sorry Pavy, While I"m not a big curious fan you certainly are showing that you are a true A hole. Congrats dude. Now give it up.
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Sports gambling is for professionals like jjgold that only play at the top five books. I owe my success to jjgold's advice and everyone else should follow a pro if they want to be succesful. People like curious end up in the poor house because they don't have good judgement on choosing a book. jjgold and pavyracer never pay touts and never deposit at scum books.Comment -
When I want your opinion I will beat it out of you.Originally posted by pavyracerComment -
Either take me up on my offer for you to come to my address, which you now have, so you can talk shit to my face. OR SHUT THE PHUCK UP and stay out of my threads. I am not interested at all in anything you have to say. The people in the SBR forum get it by now. You don't like me. Okay, fine. But do you have to go on and on and on and on about it? LEAVE ME THE **** ALONE or give me an opportunity to resolve this bullshit in person.Originally posted by pavyracerComment -
Originally posted by curious
You'd probably get less people threatening you with violence if your response to every critique wasn't a thread of violence.Originally posted by curious
Good luck Curious.
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Agami threatened me because I filed a lawsuit against him.Originally posted by duritoYou'd probably get less people threatening you with violence if your response to every critique wasn't a thread of violence.
Good luck Curious.
I would hardly call the bullshit that you, donjuan, payracer, and others have heaped on me continually since I joined this forum "critique". It is harrassment and you know that.Comment -
I'll be flying to your area next week for business. I will show up when you don't expect it and mangle your limbs in knots.Comment -
George Mason will coverComment -
i usually cast out devils ,,, but ill have to admit there was SOMETHIN BOUT YOU THAT I RESPECTED --------HEY PLAY BASEBALL THEN QUIT !!!!!!!!!play at 5 dimes i got paid!!!Comment -
I'm going to take a break from all of this until there are enough baseball stats in to actually handicap the games and then see how I feel about it.Originally posted by greek
The only reason people on here think I am "a devil" is because I stand up to the jackasses who constantly harass anyone on here who actually has a brain. You know who I am talking about. (Not talking about you brother).Comment -
hope you can stick around curious. take some time off and do those things that you have wanted to do. always felt you were a regular guy on here instead of some of the dead heads with nothing else to do.Comment
