Traps for college football this week based on opening lines

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  • Pete0
    SBR MVP
    • 04-09-10
    • 3849

    #36
    just to make sure, the picks are to fade the list right ?

    I'm just trying to understand certain situations/factors in which the selection actually turns out to be the opposite from the time the opener is out. (since we're using only the book's "knowledge" of the winning spread)

    Dont get me wrong
    I like almost all your plays. But, For example oregon st +15 ( seems like oregon +15 should be the play and the trap is oregon -15 )
    also with tonights miami (OH) game.

    Apart from that, I love all of your plays !
    Just my opinion. thoughts ?
    Comment
    • Pete0
      SBR MVP
      • 04-09-10
      • 3849

      #37
      I'm assuming the selection process works a little different for higher spreads of maybe 15 or more?
      I could be wrong.

      Because I've had doubts about the miami (OH) game and Oregon st. all along.
      Comment
      • pavyracer
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-12-07
        • 82749

        #38
        One of the losses in the 15-2 run was on a +14 point spread. Looks like we should omit these plays in future weeks since it doesn't work well and stick to the numbers 3, 7 and 10.
        Comment
        • richyrich8478
          SBR Sharp
          • 05-08-10
          • 296

          #39
          i agree with most of these but not all... nice work though... looks like you know some things bout college football...
          Comment
          • The Seer
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-29-07
            • 10641

            #40
            Pavy, I hope you've got Fresno here.
            Comment
            • pavyracer
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-12-07
              • 82749

              #41
              Originally posted by The Seer
              Pavy, I hope you've got Fresno here.
              Yes Fresno is the play. If you look at the first post all plays listed should be faded.
              Comment
              • The Seer
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-29-07
                • 10641

                #42
                Originally posted by pavyracer
                Yes Fresno is the play. If you look at the first post all plays listed should be faded.
                I saw it. I'm on Fresno +6 1/2 & a half unit on the ML. I've been waiting a few days hoping it would get back to 7 though.
                Comment
                • Pete0
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-09-10
                  • 3849

                  #43
                  right.

                  pavyracer, on a side note, i love your avatar !

                  who is she ?
                  Comment
                  • Extra Innings
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-26-10
                    • 15058

                    #44
                    Sharp Thread!
                    Comment
                    • Jimb0311
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-27-10
                      • 481

                      #45
                      So you're saying take the opposite of the favorites?
                      Comment
                      • manny24
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-22-07
                        • 20046

                        #46
                        Originally posted by Jimb0311
                        So you're saying take the opposite of the favorites?
                        common man snap the fukk out of it.
                        Comment
                        • canepole
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 02-12-10
                          • 973

                          #47
                          whats the picks today>
                          Comment
                          • pavyracer
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 04-12-07
                            • 82749

                            #48
                            Originally posted by manny24
                            common man snap the fukk out of it.
                            Some people have no business in gambling. I am making this so complicated for people to understand.
                            Comment
                            • pavyracer
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 04-12-07
                              • 82749

                              #49
                              Originally posted by Pete0
                              right.

                              pavyracer, on a side note, i love your avatar !

                              who is she ?
                              google this "alexandratou"
                              Comment
                              • mcbaseball10
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-11-09
                                • 2866

                                #50
                                Originally posted by pavyracer
                                Some people have no business in gambling. I am making this so complicated for people to understand.
                                So is your trap thread a trap to get us to think that we should bet the side you are showing or a trap that we should bet the opposite only if we buy the 1/2 point or if the line moves in the opposite direction of what you posted. I'm confused Pavy.
                                Comment
                                • pavyracer
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-12-07
                                  • 82749

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                  So is your trap thread a trap to get us to think that we should bet the side you are showing or a trap that we should bet the opposite only if we buy the 1/2 point or if the line moves in the opposite direction of what you posted. I'm confused Pavy.
                                  Pavy's 101 Opening Line Trap System:

                                  1. Go to sbrlines.com
                                  2. Click NCAA Football
                                  3. Look under Opener (this is the opening line)
                                  4a. If the line is -3.5 bet the fav
                                  4b. If the line is +2.5 bet the dog
                                  4c. If the line is -7.5 or -8 bet the fav
                                  4d. If the line is +6.5 bet the dog

                                  I'm not looking at current lines, line movements or closing lines. I can't recall an instance where getting a different line than opening line affected the play. Most times dogs win outright and favs cover.
                                  Comment
                                  • borednaz
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-28-10
                                    • 3809

                                    #52
                                    Bol on today pavy.
                                    Comment
                                    • mcbaseball10
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-11-09
                                      • 2866

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by pavyracer
                                      Pavy's 101 Opening Line Trap System: 1. Go to sbrlines.com 2. Click NCAA Football 3. Look under Opener (this is the opening line) 4a. If the line is -3.5 bet the fav 4b. If the line is +2.5 bet the dog 4c. If the line is -7.5 or -8 bet the fav 4d. If the line is +6.5 bet the dog I'm not looking at current lines, line movements or closing lines. I can't recall an instance where getting a different line than opening line affected the play. Most times dogs win outright and favs cover.
                                      Put on your sarcasm detector Pavy.
                                      Comment
                                      • Rod1010
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-01-10
                                        • 6208

                                        #54
                                        hes right
                                        Comment
                                        • pavyracer
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-12-07
                                          • 82749

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by mcbaseball10
                                          Put on your sarcasm detector Pavy.
                                          I knew your post was sarcastic. Was trying to help all others who ask questions or PM me all the time about how I pick the plays.

                                          Comment
                                          • mcbaseball10
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-11-09
                                            • 2866

                                            #56
                                            Comment
                                            • Holdin Aces
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-18-10
                                              • 2551

                                              #57
                                              Pavy, according to SBR live odds Oklahoma opened at -2.5 and UCF opened at -8.
                                              Comment
                                              • docvinny
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-21-09
                                                • 386

                                                #58
                                                good picks so far
                                                Comment
                                                • Extra Innings
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-26-10
                                                  • 15058

                                                  #59
                                                  Pavy....I bit into the South Florida trap
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Pete0
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-09-10
                                                    • 3849

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by Extra Innings
                                                    Pavy....I bit into the South Florida trap
                                                    lol, stick to those plays

                                                    i'm doubtful about oregon st. trap,
                                                    but rest of them are very strong plays
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dolphinvann
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 09-17-10
                                                      • 79

                                                      #61
                                                      Gambling 101: Don't be a homer, don't bet your team man.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pavyracer
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 04-12-07
                                                        • 82749

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by Holdin Aces
                                                        Pavy, according to SBR live odds Oklahoma opened at -2.5 and UCF opened at -8.
                                                        This is a screenshot:

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                                                        • The Seer
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-29-07
                                                          • 10641

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by Extra Innings
                                                          Pavy....I bit into the South Florida trap
                                                          EI, I hope you know SF is real banged up and not sure about the QB situation. PLus, they are coming off an emotional win over Miami last game.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • White Rhino
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 09-05-09
                                                            • 601

                                                            #64
                                                            the crapple cup line is now -4 at my book. I can't believe people like wsu in this game.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Extra Innings
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-26-10
                                                              • 15058

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by The Seer
                                                              EI, I hope you know SF is real banged up and not sure about the QB situation. PLus, they are coming off an emotional win over Miami last game.
                                                              Just fading what I think looks good. I am also on South Carolina. I look at that Auburn line and I say to myself "too good to be true"....I'm not afraid to lose
                                                              Comment
                                                              • The Seer
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 10-29-07
                                                                • 10641

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by Extra Innings
                                                                Just fading what I think looks good. I am also on South Carolina. I look at that Auburn line and I say to myself "too good to be true"....I'm not afraid to lose
                                                                I'm on SC as well
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Pete0
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-09-10
                                                                  • 3849

                                                                  #67
                                                                  that SMU QB is the worst ass fker i've seen in a long time
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • The Seer
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 10-29-07
                                                                    • 10641

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Paver, have you tracked the NFL?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FrozenMAN
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-23-09
                                                                      • 4334

                                                                      #69
                                                                      FIRE RON ZOOK ASAP....we gave that game away with stupidity with tavon wilson once again being a typical idiot and hitting guys late and costing us after we held em and were gonna get the ball back w 4 to play.....plus dimke missed a FG which he never does and zook pusses out and petrino called 2 awful plays when we were on the 2 and had to settle for a FG instead of the TD..then the WAC officials royally screwed us with that 4th down spot for fresno which shoulda gave us the ball back, they tried to F us just like they did to Wisky a few years back, but they got a late TD to make the screwjob fall a bit short......though in the end this game never shoulda came down to what decided it, we shoulda rolled em.....
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • hhsilver
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 06-07-07
                                                                        • 7375

                                                                        #70
                                                                        another good day, pavy. Maybe before you publish and sell this , you could name it something other than 'trap'. Or maybe if you continue with such success, the betting world will redefine 'trap' and have to come up with a new word for what will have been formerly known as trap.
                                                                        Comment
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