Fresno St is getting +30.5, BSU can't cover that number. Can they?

[jnickell100]

This is not an appropriate comparsion. Hawaii is a much more one-dimensional offense that can be shut down at times. Boise's 4-2-5 defense offsets Hawaii's speed at receiver. However don't forget that Hawaii was also without a major weapon on offense against Boise State that greatly reduced their effectiveness (Pilares). Fresno State is a much more flexible offense. There is no doubt that Pat Hill wants to just line up and run it down an opponents throat but he will adjust if it isn't working and that balance allows him to compete even when a team controls one aspect. Sure there games where they get beat pretty good but there is always a common denominator, turnovers. LY Boise State was a -7.5 favorite @FS. The game was a 7 point game until late in the game when FS forced the issue with 4th down attempts which resulted in 10 late points in a 51-34 Boise State win. Both teams are very similar from last year in terms of players. Yes, FS is missing Ryan Mathews but their new lead back has back to back 200 yard rushing games for the first time in school history. So now a year later Boise State is 23 points higher? That's one heck of a homefield advantage (they do have a great one). Another line that doesn't jive with this one when I look at it is Boise's home line against La. Tech a few weeks back. It was 35.5 or 5 points more but Fresno State just got done going and beating La. Tech on the road pretty soundly. The score ended up 40-34 but FS dominated the game statistically and only a KR TD and late TD made the score look deceptive. So is Fresno State only worth 5 more points than La Tech? I would say no. Fresno State +30 here and for a good chunk.

Awesome write up chief. Rouse is a bad ass. He is quick as hell and made some players last week just look silly.

[blackbox]

Very nice writeup--this week goin with over in the Boise game. gl all

[FrozenMAN]

pat hill and fresno state are one of the most solid and well coached teams out there today...he can get his team up for any contest, be it vs #4 or a #117......fresno state has a sneaky passing attack this year unlike in years past and will score some points...i LOVE this play, along with fresno straight up when they play the illini....traveling to cali and winning in the valley vs the dawgs is impossible

[bornselling]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]The way this line is moving im going toward Fresno to cover and looks to be consensus her also. The early money is on Boise to cover.[/COLOR]

[VegasPlayer]

Anyone see the Hawaii/Fresno St game? Hawaii made them look like a high school team in their own backyard. Fresno St all but quit in the 3rd qtr. 30.5 is alot of points, just a matter of whether BSU wants to run it up or not. Don't know how much the criticism about their schedule is going to influence how many points they score.

[madworld]

Almost every week people think Boise St. wont cover and most weeks they do. I just cant bet against them at this time or for them, no play for me.

[Wrecktangle]

The Boize does not fit my modeling as almost every time I show their opponent as a pick, Boize covers. Their motivation to get into the BCS game turns them into different team.

I'd stay away.

[AMcBoarder]

It's funny how you can tell the people who only know about Boise and nothing else about the WAC and those that do...just because a team doesn't blow their opponents out every game doesn't make them shit. This is sports and it's conference play and these teams know each other very well and it's not easy to just blow the "lesser" team away because you are supposed to be a national power.

The competitive balance is more prevalent in the top of the conference than the lower tier. Boise has had some close games with Fresno/Nev/Hawaii in the last few year but always seem to win out. With that being said don't jump on Boise train they will destroy Fresno train so fast. Fresno is a good team and they can give Boise fits. Sure they'll be playing on the smurf turf but Fresno has played Boise well up there and I don't expect that to change.

Although they won't win this game and will give up some points they can score here. That little back they have is like 5-7 and you don't see his ass until he flies by you hiding behind the line. 30 points is way too many and a little inflated IMO. The books know people are a public play and expect plenty of people to jump on that number because they are not educated about the WAC. The smart money will be on Fresno just like it was against my Pack this week.

Also I heard reports that Boise has lost their starting LB who is a great run stopper. Although this won't kill them it's not a small loss and will have an affect on the game. I expect a little look ahead to their game against Nevada next week because that game has a lot more meaning to them than this one against Fresno. Expect a close...ish game people

Good points. Also everyone seems to forget about the La Tech game. Fresno St is better than LaTech. 31 is too high imo.

ManBear, Nevada is my team too '02 alum.

[rofacapper]

The La Tech game was Boise's worst game this year. 30.5 is not a high number for them at all. I expect them to get it but I'll play it safe and take Boise -17.5 1st half.

[Jankar]

thats fun

[seaborneq]

Why hasn't this line moved?

[Unicorn7]

I bought 7 points and took +37.5 and hope to be in it at half time-seems like boise gets off early but simmers down-Idaho team this year is horrible so throw that game out the window

[cloudagh]

Boise is one of few teams where coach tries to cover each week. Tough pick against them when you know they are score watching.

[Poster X]

Fading Boise here, the world is on the bandwagon. I am on the road ready to get run over.

[BIGDAY]

I took the over and Fresno State here. I see a 50-28 type of route IMO.

Best of luck everyone!

[BrownTown]

Every team, every year has a let down week. TCU and Oregon had theirs last week. This may be the week BSU has theirs. Fresno is a fiarly well ballanced offense. Boise LB's can be beat on play action ... if Fresno can establish the run, they will cover if not give Boise a scare.

[shade3599]

Got to fade Boise here. I can see fresno st with a back door cover.

[intangible fate]

This is like a bowl game for Fresno. The 30.5 is bulletin board material...you know Pat Hill will get the boys fired up. Boise will have their minds set on Nevada. This line is just ridiculous...even if this was against WSU.

[Fresno]

Pat Hill Gets offended when the spread looks like this. Being a Traditional Irish / Old School Rugby Player that he is, Hill will do everything he can to not just compete, but win.

On another note, short week or not, the dogs go hard at practice, and should continue with offensive momentum into this game. Just need it to show up by the 3rd quarter!!!!

[CLASSIC ROCK]

over should be good here

[arkie boy]

arkyboy

boise state bets the spread easly.get on the pony and ride,easy money minus the points

[Barnes01]

Fresno will not keep it close but will stay within the number I guess losing by 20-30 is keeping it close

[uhuhahah]

30.5 points?....take the over.

[jnickell100]

pat hill and fresno state are one of the most solid and well coached teams out there today...he can get his team up for any contest, be it vs #4 or a #117......fresno state has a sneaky passing attack this year unlike in years past and will score some points...i LOVE this play, along with fresno straight up when they play the illini....traveling to cali and winning in the valley vs the dawgs is impossible

Not really. The only thing that is true with your statement is that they get up for ranked teams and they usually play them very well. They play horrible against horrible teams, they play up and down to their competition.

[beermankirk]

Im just looking forward to a good game, but leaning towards the over.

[actionjunkee]

has anyone considered that its snowing/raining and freeakin freezin there? wont this affect the score (less points)? thus with a lower scoring game overall, it seems that much easier for fresno to cover (+29). ...right?
maybe better to only bet on the first half? confused here but leaning towards fresno +29 at -110

[arslan]

Fresno st +30 and Over 66

[Fieldysnuts44]

Fresno covers,on the over as well

[BetWeather]

Fresno state is sure to cover... 44-17 BS wins.

[regretz]

Yes they can; get down on BSU -30.5 and get down now.

boise will murder them

[seaborneq]

I'll take my chance with "anytime, anyplace, anywhere", and big.

Couldn't score "any" points. I am a believer in the Broncos. I will take them against Nevada even if the line is -60.

[KingJIM]

Couldn't score "any" points. I am a believer in the Broncos. I will take them against Nevada even if the line is -60.

I don't know about the whole -60 thing but you have to figure Boise needs to hang some points and look impressive to get to BCS#3 over TCU.

[The Seer]

Ya saw what happens to hawaii? Boise defense completed shut them down , fresno probably not gonna see the end zone here

sharp

[coinpusha]

boise is unstoppable. we need a boise state oregon championship game in january

[yisman]

it's name the score, baby.