Fishhead: Need help on Brazil - N.Korea game

[pavyracer]

Brazil -2.5 +125
Brazil/N.Korea under 2.5 +150
Brazil/N Korea over 3 +100
N.Korea o1/2 +212

How do I calculate how much to wager on each bet to guarantee profit? Obviously you will either choose over 3 +100 or under 2.5 + 150?

Anyone have any ideas?

[mathdotcom]

[Deuce]

Calling Fishead out.

[pavyracer]

What are the different betting choices? Assuming a 2-0 score, 3-0 score or 4-0 score? How much to wager on each bet?

[lakerboy]

Bet live.

[iifold]

How many points did u lose out on by shunning the point program??

How sharp was that?

[wal66]

Pavy I know squat about soccer but I got that feeling I get sometimes that I never listen too and after the game is done I am beating myself over the head because I didn't listen to that voice.

Voice said Brazil wins this game 2-0.

[Deuce]

Brazil -2.5 is the play.

[Flight]

I've been seeing half goals worth between 60 and 70 cents. The further from the centerline you go, the more the goal is worth. So your polish middle of 50 cents between 2.5 and 3 isn't quite worth it. I would look for > 70 cents to get a good +EV polish middle.

This is really just "eyeballing" the numbers. I didn't do any calculations. I am not sure how much half goals are actually worth.

[pavyracer]

What I was looking for was something like this?

Brazil -2.5 +125 (2 units)
Brazil/N.Korea under 2.5 +150 (1 unit)

OR

Brazil/N Korea over 3 +100 (3 units)
N.Korea o1/2 +212 (1 unit)

What combinations will work the best and how many units in each bet?

[lakerboy]

Pavy have you looked into the correct score options?

[pavyracer]

Pavy have you looked into the correct score options?

Not for this game.

[lakerboy]

I guess you think that it will be more than 3-0.

[suicidekings]

What I was looking for was something like this?

Brazil -2.5 +125 (2 units)
Brazil/N.Korea under 2.5 +150 (1 unit)

OR

Brazil/N Korea over 3 +100 (3 units)
N.Korea o1/2 +212 (1 unit)

What combinations will work the best and how many units in each bet?

I would take the -2.5 off the table entirely.

Brazil 2-0 (+445) x1.07 & Brazil 3-0 (+484) x1 pay out at a combined (+377) if either hits, and then the Under 2.5 is sitting at (+150), which would also win if Brazil wins 2-0. That's my initial lean anyways.

[lakerboy]

Just take NKorea ML

[Flight]

What I was looking for was something like this?

Brazil -2.5 +125 (2 units)
Brazil/N.Korea under 2.5 +150 (1 unit)

If you play this polish middle, go with $100 on Brazil -2.5, $90 on Under 2.5. $35 if either one of these hits. For a total bet of $190, a $35 payout is somewhere around a -540 bet. Betting N Korea under 0.5 may be a better proposition than this polish middle.

Sorry for taking a stab at the problem, it piqued my interested.

[dinaro7]

brazil wins it all with mardona just coaching argentina

[pavyracer]

I would take the -2.5 off the table entirely.

Brazil 2-0 (+445) x1.07 & Brazil 3-0 (+484) x1 pay out at a combined (+377) if either hits, and then the Under 2.5 is sitting at (+150), which would also win if Brazil wins 2-0. That's my initial lean anyways.

I like this one but the 4-0 scares me to death. Would it be better if I bet the over 3 +100 in case the 4-0 hits and save one unit? Thanks for the analysis.

If you play this polish middle, go with $100 on Brazil -2.5, $90 on Under 2.5. $35 if either one of these hits. For a total bet of $190, a $35 payout is somewhere around a -540 bet. Betting N Korea under 0.5 may be a better proposition than this polish middle.

Sorry for taking a stab at the problem, it piqued my interested.

I have already bet the N.Korea u1/2. May just stick to that. Thanks for the analysis.

[pavyracer]

Just take NKorea ML

My name is not Pat Venditto.

[rfr3sh]

-2.5 is a big spread..espc for the WC

[Slim]

NoKo's goalie and defense is very good. This is the game they clinched qualification. They needed at least a draw against Saudi Arabia and got it.

[lakerboy]

I like this one but the 4-0 scares me to death. Would it be better if I bet the over 3 +100 in case the 4-0 hits and save one unit? Thanks for the analysis.



I have already bet the N.Korea u1/2. May just stick to that. Thanks for the analysis.

unquoted score at pinny is +184 pavler which would cover the 4-0 result. its the lowest odds of the correct score possibilities

[ronjon619]

I'd stay away from the game. Those are horrible numbers everywhere. Plus the ASIA region has stepped up. S. Korea and Japan have both got the $$$$.

[wtf]

didnt that dork pavy post yesterday ITALY WAS A LOCK?

or did he convenient forget this-ignore this guys plays at all costs!

[pavyracer]

I had Paraguay pk +175 today. If you yank your head out of your ass you can pick a winner.

[suicidekings]

I like this one but the 4-0 scares me to death. Would it be better if I bet the over 3 +100 in case the 4-0 hits and save one unit? Thanks for the analysis.

It doesn't make sense to me for Brazil to maintain an offensive mindset once they're on the board against North Korea. If Brazil leads by 2, NoKo won't want to get embarrassed further and Brazil won't want any fluke injuries (especially in their first, and least important match), so I would think that the pace will slow dramatically once Brazil is on the board.

[LostBankroll]

NoKo's goalie and defense is very good. This is the game they clinched qualification. They needed at least a draw against Saudi Arabia and got it.

LMAO this was against Saudi Arabia. If you see this vid you see the Oil drinkers taking FULL control of this game. Brazil will do the same only difference is they will put 3 or more in the back of the net. North Korea not to score is the play of the day I dont care how juiced it is. This is the safest play.

[starfire]

If you yank your head out of your ass

too funny, I gotta remember that line.

[pico]

north koreans are playing for their lives. i would take north korea spread.

[Mr Windy City]

here is my 2 cents and plays in this game. All wagers placed at 5 dimes:

20013 Brazil HT / Brazil FT -240.

Then take N. Korea +3

Correct Score:
Brazil 2 - N. Korea 0 +430
Brazil 3 - N. Korea 0 +485

This game ends 2-0 or 3-0 and I basically win them all.

[Thomas_Garber]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping/529025-warning-brazil-n-korea-bettors.html#post5065211

[Fishhead]

Pavy, it's 6am and do not have time to think on this now.........all my concentrations are focused on the early match and bases right now..............it looks like you recieved great answers in my absence.


GOOD LUCK WITH THE CARD TODAY SIR, YOU'RE READY FOR A BIG DAY.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You have to know some push frequencies in order to calculate whether any of those polish middles (and permutations therein) have value, Pavy. However, I'm 99.9999% sure that none of those combinations would yield any long term positive expectation from what I've seen in the WC markets for the price of a goal. This topic would probably be better served in the Think Tank.

[Dank_Fire]

over 3 +105 is my play. GL

[Mr Windy City]

over 3 +105 is my play. GL

Then Brazil is going to have to do it all by themselves, because I give N. Korea a 10% chance to score a goal.