Anyone so bad at an area of sports betting - that you fade yourself and win?

teecee · 09-06-23, 10:49 PM

I tried this during the college basketball season, and as soon as I faded my work, it started winning. I may just be cursed.

raiders72001 · 09-06-23, 10:52 PM

For some reason it seems easier to find someone to fade than follow. It's tough to find someone that wins 53% of the time but easy to find someone hitting 45%.

Optional · 09-06-23, 10:56 PM

You can't really fade yourself as if you know thats the plan you are going to cap differently most of the time.

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-06-23, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Johnnythunder

I will employ this strategy when betting on anything involving asians. I bet an asian tennis player - I lose. I bet a Korean or Japanese baseball side - I lose. I bet an asian soccer side or total - I lose. It's really amazing how consistent the losing is. Let's hope this gift I was blessed with (of never picking the correct asian) continues.

This is a great question. See Opti's note.

*When I first started betting, I thought I knew a few things. Tried to apply that to bets. Failed badly...and I had the same idea you did. Just fade yourself. Truth is that it probably reverts to around 50/50.

*In practice, I really think it's best to listen to those around you. Co-workers and radio-hacks. When they start raving about a certain team, the water is getting too hot. Think about fading the team that's getting over-hyped. Telling you, that's the way to do it (IMHO).

d2bets · 09-07-23, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by Optional

You can't really fade yourself as if you know thats the plan you are going to cap differently most of the time.

What if you fade the fade of the fade of the fade of the fade?

Getch13 · 09-07-23, 08:50 AM

As J.J. Gold would say:

You still lose

Good Luck

Johnnythunder · 09-11-23, 03:07 AM

Ok so after two more asian losses (the worst being Yang/Hsieh US Open Semis Doubles @ -210) I'm convinced fading myself will yield + results. Bet 1 came through tonight for 2 mbtc or about $52. Was liking Yuan over Podoroska from Toyko (WTA 250) and caught myself at the last moment before submitting a Yuan wager. I reversed the bet and took Podoroska. Felt a sense of calmness & as I fixed a snack felt strongly I had a winner. Prevailed in a tight 3 setter.

Current asian sports fade record 1-0 (+52 USD).

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-11-23, 08:14 AM

Good thread, Thunder. This has merit.

Hugh Madbrough · 09-11-23, 09:03 AM

It always happens to me when Luis Castillo is on the mound betting on him and against him. Seattle could be up 3 runs and then he started horsing around and smiling while doing it. Or if I bet against him, he'll pitch a gem.

My guarantee to lose a bet is when I double down. So confident on the game I'll place to big wagers and then the game is a complete disaster.

Johnnythunder · 09-11-23, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Good thread, Thunder. This has merit.

Thanks Chucky

Johnnythunder · 09-11-23, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by Hugh Madbrough

It always happens to me when Luis Castillo is on the mound betting on him and against him. Seattle could be up 3 runs and then he started horsing around and smiling while doing it. Or if I bet against him, he'll pitch a gem.

My guarantee to lose a bet is when I double down. So confident on the game I'll place to big wagers and then the game is a complete disaster.

Same...I think I'm 0-5 when I bet that POS. No matter how good a season he's having when i bet him he gets shellacked. This goes back a few years too.

trytrytry · 09-11-23, 12:53 PM

sometimes in horses Ill do that.

Checkerboard · 09-11-23, 05:32 PM

Fade anybody.