1. #1
    stevenash
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    Nasher's MLB two plays of the day and other thoughts.

    My favorite season of the year.
    MLB post season.
    Nothing better than October baseball.

    I really like the White Sox this afternoon at -116 on the road in Oakand.
    For several reasons.

    Giolito (White Sox starter) is the superior pitcher when compared to Oakland's starter (Jesus Luzardo)
    Giolito's last seven starts have been sharp, hasn't given up more than three earned in those previous seven games, allowed no runs twice with a complete game 13 k no hitter thrown in there.
    Overall Giolito strurck out 97 in 72 innings (fourth best in the majors), had a solid 3.48 ERA and a stellar 1.02 WH/IP.

    Giolito is everything I look for when handicapping a MLB baseball game.
    Good solid pitcher getting hot at the right time, sort of like betting a NHL Stanley Cup game you look for a solid goal tender getting hot at the right time.

    To further my cause why I am betting Chicago today is the White Sox mash left handed pitching.
    They led the majors in offense versus LHP. And it wasn't even close.
    Luzardo (Oakland's starter) is a LHP, he's really a spot starter/long reliever.
    He has mediocre numbers across the board, not shit/not great.
    Chicago has the type of line up though that can hurt him.

    White Sox regulars this season versus LHP
    League's best.


    Season Name Tm PA AB H HR R RBI BB SO AVG
    2020 Jose Abreu CHW 57 52 13 4 7 17 4 12 0.25
    2020 Tim Anderson CHW 55 49 22 6 20 12 6 8 0.44898
    2020 Luis Robert CHW 51 44 12 2 14 9 6 9 0.272727
    2020 Yoan Moncada CHW 46 36 8 1 6 3 9 17 0.222222
    2020 Eloy Jimenez CHW 46 45 13 4 5 9 1 13 0.288889
    2020 Edwin Encarnacion CHW 41 33 4 3 7 3 6 12 0.121212
    2020 Yasmani Grandal CHW 37 28 8 2 6 8 7 10 0.285714
    2020 James McCann CHW 36 28 12 2 11 6 4 5 0.428571
    2020 Adam Engel CHW 35 33 10 1 4 7 1 3 0.30303
    2020 Danny Mendick CHW 34 31 6 1 4 2 3 9 0.193548
    2020 Nomar Mazara CHW 26 24 8 0 2 6 2 10 0.333333


    Oakland does have the best bull pen in the majors.
    Their best path to victory today is to jump Giolito early by making him work, take pitches, work the pitch count.
    If Oakland gets say an early three run lead they can pull Luzardo, and keep the White Sox down with their stellar relievers.

    Too many ifs there.

    White Sox have the superior starter in this one, and the better offense here as well.

    Best bet
    White Sox 232 to win 200.


    My other play is the over 75 runs in the Tor/TB game.

    Two reasons, the Jays have been hitting well as of late, and most importantly the Jays (like the White Sox) rake LHP.
    While it's true Snell (Tampa's starter) is a top tier MLB starter, he is not invincible, and as mentioned the Jays, especially the young kids hit LHP hard.

    The second reason is the Jays start journey man Matt Shoemaker.
    I always liked Shoe, still do, but fact of the matter is he gives up too many HR's, and the last two times he faced Tampa this month they hit him hard mashing 3 HR's in those starts.

    I'm tempted to bet Toronto to win the series at +200 because game two starter Ryu is automatic when he starts for Toronto but game 1 kind of scares me.

    I would not be surprised if the Toronto bats jump Snell early and eke out a 5-4 type win at +185, but the best bet here is over 7.5 (-105 reduced juice)

    I like the over 7.5
    105 to win 100


    The other two games are leans/no bets.

    I think Oakland handles Houston easily today, but I won't lay -167
    Greinke is on his way out, he's looked bad lately and by bad I mean brutal.
    So brutal I can't bet Houston at +157 either,
    PASS

    The game I really want to see today is a no bet.
    Yankees and Indians are a pick, and it's a pick for a reason,

    Beiber (who should win a Cy Young) and Cole are elite aces.
    Cole has found his way lately and as of right now you can't fade either of them.
    Yanks have a better offense, Cleveland has a better starter, but there's not real edge on either side.
    This is a toss up game and the odds say it's a toss up game, and if I want to bet a toss up I'll bet the outcome of a two second coin flip rather than at four hour baseball game.

    NO BET either way here.
    SURE FIRE BET I'll be watching this closely.

    I'll post some of tomorrow's game later.

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  2. #2
    carolinakid
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    bol with your action. (ck)

  3. #3
    Buckandadime
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    Nice write up Nasher..
    Tailing CWS..
    BOL...

  4. #4
    RonT73
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    Thanks for the write ups. Good luck!
    175 pts

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  5. #5
    Allure
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    GL Nasher, I will take Minny team total. Less juice and good ole Greinke can give up runs like candy.

  6. #6
    stevenash
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    Thanks fellas,

    What I'm looking for and I don't see a players prop yet for Giolito strike outs today.
    I'll bet the over if the number is right by me, but I don't see a number yet.

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  7. #7
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    GL Nasher, I will take Minny team total. Less juice and good ole Greinke can give up runs like candy.
    Yeah, that solid, I may bet Oakland m/l in a two team parlay.
    Maybe, I can't lay -165 as a stand alone wager, it goes against everything I stand for.

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  8. #8
    Allure
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Yeah, that solid, I may bet Oakland m/l in a two team parlay.
    Maybe, I can't lay -165 as a stand alone wager, it goes against everything I stand for.
    Oakland? They playing White Sox, are you not taking Sox already?

  9. #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Oakland? They playing White Sox, are you not taking Sox already?
    Ooops I was thinking Twins against Grienke, Oakland cam out there by mistake.
    Brain farts happen when you're looking at too many numbers at the same time,

    Just to be clear, White Sox are my best bet, I think the Twins roll but won't lay the juice.
    Sorry for the confusion,

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  10. #10
    pologq
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    good write up. love the analysis. on the sox also.

  11. #11
    Roscoe_Word
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    I like the A's because the Chisx are reeling and yet are installed as a RF.

    Very informative post, Nasher. GL brother.

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