Taking the Giants tomorrow behind Cain

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Oh, you're one of those guys... System plays??? Am I wrong?

What's a system play?

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by Rufus

I'm arguing that that particular skill is not one that will develop that much with age. Like walk rates for hitters...yes there is an age factor, but plate discipline is more innate than learned

Ok, u win man. GL to you.

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by Rufus

What's a system play?

Explain your "model"

TWG1992 · 04-07-10, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

yes sir...lived here in stl pretty much my whole life

What parts? Im in Chesterfield.

2daBank · 04-07-10, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by TWG1992

What parts? Im in Chesterfield.

ive been around but mainly south county area

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Explain your "model"

My model was derived for my senior thesis two years ago as an undergrad at Yale. I've made some refinements since then but its basic premise is separating fundamentals from noise. In a way, it capitalizes on biases in the betting public's perception of players

DODGERBLUES24 · 04-07-10, 02:06 AM

Better jump on it now already went from -150 to -155 in a click of a mouse

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:07 AM

Please explain Rufus. So i was right about you. System plays.

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:08 AM

What would you like me to explain?

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:10 AM

This is my livelihood and I'm not going to go into great detail...at least not on a public forum.

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:11 AM

My model DOES predict a line. It does not say bet when these factors are such and such...

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by Rufus

What would you like me to explain?

Omg, give me some info and details about why you don't like the pick. There's no model that can cap games.

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by Rufus

My model DOES predict a line. It does not say bet when these factors are such and such...

Aren't those factors pretty important when choosing a side? What doesn't your model factor in when coming up with a line for a specific game?

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:17 AM

Why do even in here Rufus? Your model must not be that good if you have to be coming into a public forum to get input from other cappers. Giants may win, they may lose, but they are the play.

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:20 AM

Look at my post count. 6 more posts and I hit 100, meaning I can go to the SBR bash and get a free nice round of golf

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:20 AM

I post sporadically in the Think Tank.

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Why do even in here Rufus? Your model must not be that good if you have to be coming into a public forum to get input from other cappers. Giants may win, they may lose, but they are the play.

What have I asked for input on? I will gladly send you most of my senior thesis. Although there are a few things I'd have to remove. I came in discussing Brian Matusz and Barry Zito to build up my post count.

suicidekings · 04-07-10, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Omg, give me some info and details about why you don't like the pick. There's no model that can cap games.

False. There are many ways to go about generating fair lines for matchups in any sport.

Rufus · 04-07-10, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

There's no model that can cap games.

I hope you're not serious. Oops. Maybe I should stop doing that for a living then

2daBank · 04-07-10, 02:34 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

False. There are many ways to go about generating fair lines for matchups in any sport.

2daBank · 04-07-10, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Omg, give me some info and details about why you don't like the pick. There's no model that can cap games.

you are losing this discussion my friend

2daBank · 04-07-10, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Why do even in here Rufus? Your model must not be that good if you have to be coming into a public forum to get input from other cappers. Giants may win, they may lose, but they are the play.

i dont come here to get input as much as i like to talk sports and like to gauge the way ppl think about games...this forum is way more entertainment value and sometimes if your lucky along the way you run into a few really solid ppl that know wtf they talking about, unfortunately for most folks when this does actually happen they rather argue than try and learn a thing or two

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 02:45 AM

Lol, this came about cuz dood said matusz is a futur HOFer. About systems that generate "fair lines," I'm not a believer. I might be wrong, but Make plays on my knowledge of the game and situation. Your system can tell you to stay away from a game but I might feel strong enough about the play to go heavy. Who right and who's wrong? It's gambling. I think Cain has a great game and meyers struggles against a giants offense that is improved from last year. What does the system say?

2daBank · 04-07-10, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by Lakers714

Lol, this came about cuz dood said matusz is a futur HOFer. About systems that generate "fair lines," I'm not a believer. I might be wrong, but Make plays on my knowledge of the game and situation. Your system can tell you to stay away from a game but I might feel strong enough about the play to go heavy. Who right and who's wrong? It's gambling. I think Cain has a great game and meyers struggles against a giants offense that is improved from last year. What does the system say?

of coarse this is true any 1 game can go any way and i im not a computer guy at all way more a feel player but to argue that his system isnt profitable or capable of picking winners is ridiculous.....im sure Rufus wqould tell you long term whether or not this play hits is irrelevant as long as he plays the games that give him the value he is looking for

2daBank · 04-07-10, 02:52 AM

hell personally i like sf as well, im fading the stros every chance i get till they prove they can hit

Grind House · 04-07-10, 04:39 AM

Fuk the Astros!!!! I thought they would at least get on track against Barry Zitto, but they made him look like Nolan fukkin Ryan. I'm Cain all day.

gr1624 · 04-07-10, 07:02 AM

Astros are terrible I like the play. That offense is putrid.

Grandmaster B · 04-07-10, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by MendozaLine

I agree. The Astros look like shit. Fade them while they're down

damn they look bad

gryfyn1 · 04-07-10, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Fade the Astros till they win a game...this COULD go on for a while

yea i was leaning toward that, they look like a mess.. no big Puma could lead to a harsh spring in houston.

cala56 · 04-07-10, 07:31 AM

iM ON ASTROS THE NEED TO WIN

2daBank · 04-07-10, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by cala56

iM ON ASTROS THE NEED TO WIN

yea if they dont get this one there World Series hopes go str8 out the window

newjerseydevils · 04-07-10, 09:15 AM

hope this one cashes...lost over half my bankroll yesterday ....horrible day......need this and rockies to cash

NKI · 04-07-10, 09:16 AM

Well I just dropped a big one on Giants too think Myers is a shit pitcher and the offense is just as bad.

Grecdogg · 04-07-10, 09:25 AM

Im heavy on SF too... Lets Cash this beotch!

Lakers714 · 04-07-10, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

hell personally i like sf as well, im fading the stros every chance i get till they prove they can hit

I hear what you're saying. All I did was post that I'm in big on SF and the dood asked why. I told him my reasons and he said that his "model" said no play. I asked what he uses for his "model" and he was very vague. That's why I was giving him such a hard time. GL today.