1. 07-24-17 08:03 AM #36
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
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    Yeah anyone interested in horse racing and why Horses and Riders do what they do should check out STR's thread in the sub forum. I have learned a lot since I have been following the thread. Invaluable info for anyone who plays the ponies.
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  2. 07-24-17 10:26 PM #37
    chaka
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Nice post. Wow, somebody who sniffed it out had to make a huge score.

    Parimutuel is always crazy. If it doesn't go to script, the vacated horse makes for massive payout.

    ACCEL place pays huge. Even Show pays > Win.
    after listening about Silver Charm missing board in similar situation inc long layoff
    i laddered $2w $10 p $20 show on accelerate. normally i do 5-10-20 if i ladder but had singled arrogate in pick 4
    there was close to 900k-1m in show pool. with 90% of it on arrogate
    i nearly had a heart attack when i saw payoffs..never had ticket like that before
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  3. 07-24-17 10:40 PM #38
    semibluff
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    A horse priced at -900 is still expected to lose more than 10% of the time.
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  4. 07-25-17 03:03 AM #39
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    A horse priced at -900 is still expected to lose more than 10% of the time.
    Props, chaka.
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  5. 07-25-17 04:55 PM #40
    picantel
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    Many many years ago Jim Curran was on a harness 1/9 shot at some chicago track. He sat parked out about 10 lengths back the entire race and got 4th. My show ticket paid $300 on a $2 bet. It was beyond obvious that he cheated big time so the smaller poorer park would not take a bath.
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  6. 07-25-17 04:56 PM #41
    trytrytry
    All I do is trytrytry
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    A horse priced at -900 is still expected to lose more than 10% of the time.
    he was closer to 1/20 in the win pools by percentage but your point is very valid.
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  7. 07-25-17 09:57 PM #42
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    he was closer to 1/20 in the win pools by percentage but your point is very valid.
    Most people don't see heavy favourites get beat very often because they don't normally see many heavy favourites. I follow the NFL, the Premier League, and F1. In F1 the odds are ridiculously tight. The top 6 in the betting for a race win works out to about 118%, which would equate to -143 on both sides of a coin flip. However, I guess it's fairly close to track odds on a 6 horse race. On F1 bookies lay odds on the winner, top 3, top 6, and top 10. For top 10 purposes the 3 favourites are -1000, -900, and -800. It wouldn't be a shock to see 1 of them crash or have a mechanical failure. The racer who is 5th in the betting is -500 to finish in the top 10 but he's failed to finish in 5 of the 10 races so far this year. I'm more used to seeing big favourites getting beat.
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