ARROGATE beat at 1/9 odds

Easy-Rider 66 · 07-24-17, 08:03 AM

Yeah anyone interested in horse racing and why Horses and Riders do what they do should check out STR's thread in the sub forum. I have learned a lot since I have been following the thread. Invaluable info for anyone who plays the ponies.

chaka · 07-24-17, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Nice post. Wow, somebody who sniffed it out had to make a huge score.

Parimutuel is always crazy. If it doesn't go to script, the vacated horse makes for massive payout.

ACCEL place pays huge. Even Show pays > Win.

after listening about Silver Charm missing board in similar situation inc long layoff
i laddered $2w $10 p $20 show on accelerate. normally i do 5-10-20 if i ladder but had singled arrogate in pick 4
there was close to 900k-1m in show pool. with 90% of it on arrogate
i nearly had a heart attack when i saw payoffs..never had ticket like that before

semibluff · 07-24-17, 10:40 PM

A horse priced at -900 is still expected to lose more than 10% of the time.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-25-17, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by semibluff

A horse priced at -900 is still expected to lose more than 10% of the time.

Props, chaka.

picantel · 07-25-17, 04:55 PM

Many many years ago Jim Curran was on a harness 1/9 shot at some chicago track. He sat parked out about 10 lengths back the entire race and got 4th. My show ticket paid $300 on a $2 bet. It was beyond obvious that he cheated big time so the smaller poorer park would not take a bath.

trytrytry · 07-25-17, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

A horse priced at -900 is still expected to lose more than 10% of the time.

he was closer to 1/20 in the win pools by percentage but your point is very valid.

semibluff · 07-25-17, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by trytrytry

he was closer to 1/20 in the win pools by percentage but your point is very valid.

Most people don't see heavy favourites get beat very often because they don't normally see many heavy favourites. I follow the NFL, the Premier League, and F1. In F1 the odds are ridiculously tight. The top 6 in the betting for a race win works out to about 118%, which would equate to -143 on both sides of a coin flip. However, I guess it's fairly close to track odds on a 6 horse race. On F1 bookies lay odds on the winner, top 3, top 6, and top 10. For top 10 purposes the 3 favourites are -1000, -900, and -800. It wouldn't be a shock to see 1 of them crash or have a mechanical failure. The racer who is 5th in the betting is -500 to finish in the top 10 but he's failed to finish in 5 of the 10 races so far this year. I'm more used to seeing big favourites getting beat.