PGA Championship Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 05-13-25, 02:24 PM

PGA Championship picks to win from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Rory McIlroy (+500 BetMGM)

"If you were to design a golf course specifically for McIlroy to showcase his skill set, it would look a lot like Quail Hollow. Demanding an abundance of length off the tee (and everywhere else) and a sharp iron game, this venue is tailor-made to McIlroy.

And he's taken advantage of that throughout his career. He's won four PGA Tour events at Quail Hollow, including last year's Wells Fargo Championship. Nobody is close to matching his 2.87 true strokes gained on the field per round across 50 career rounds played at this venue.

Couple the career success with McIlroy's recent Masters-winning form and the evaporation of the pressure the Northern Irishman has long faced in majors while trying to end over a decade-long drought, and McIlroy's my easy choice to win the 2025 PGA Championship."

Brooks Koepka (+4500 BetMGM)

"Koepka will make his third professional appearance at Quail Hollow Club this week. He finished T-13 in the 2017 PGA Championship and T-42 in the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship before leaving for the LIV Golf Invitational Series. He missed the cut in the Masters, thanks to a dismal performance on his 36th hole, and he finished T-17 or worse in five of seven LIV events this year.

However, Koepka is a five-time major champion, including three Wanamaker Trophies. He watched from home as McIlroy and DeChambeau went head-to-head in the final round of the Masters, and that should spark some motivation for the second major of the year.

The +4500 odds from BetMGM are far too long, and he should be priced closer to the +3000 odds at DraftKings which represent an implied win probability of 3.23%."

Patrick Cantlay (+4500 DraftKings)

"Cantlay has (famously) never won a major. He also has a spotty history at Quail Hollow Club that includes a best finish of just T-21 in the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship and a T-33 showing in the 2017 PGA Championship. He hasn't won on the PGA Tour since August 2022, and he has just two top-10 finishes in eight career appearances in the PGA Championship.

That all said, he's averaging more strokes gained off the tee than McIlroy across their respective last 16 measured rounds with vastly superior accuracy. His 0.91 strokes gained: approach over that time rank 12th among qualified golfers entering the PGA Championship.

He's 14th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following a T-4 finish in last week's Truist Championship Signature Event, and he hasn't missed a cut since early last June. The last time he failed to make the weekend before that was the 2023 Scottish Open.

He can be bet at odds as long as +360 for a top-10 finish this week, but I'll also sprinkle on an outright ticket with DraftKings' +4500 odds vastly superior to the +3300 odds found elsewhere."

**SBR Andy** · 05-13-25, 02:29 PM

PGA Championship AI predictions from ChatGPT:

Pick to win: Bryson DeChambeau (+950 DraftKings)
- Recent performance: DeChambeau has been in excellent form, notably winning the 2024 U.S. Open and securing a fifth-place finish at the Masters before winning the LIV Golf Korea event last week.

- Course fit: Quail Hollow favors long hitters, and DeChambeau's driving power positions him well to capitalize on the course's challenges.

- Betting odds: DraftKings lists DeChambeau at +950 to win the PGA Championship. This offers substantial value compared to favorites like Scottie Scheffler (+400) and Rory McIlroy (+450), especially given DeChambeau's recent form and course compatibility.

Best prop bets:

Top-10 finish: Tommy Fleetwood (+350 via DraftKings)
Fleetwood has secured top-10 finishes in five of the last 12 majors since the 2022 PGA Championship. His consistent performance in major tournaments makes this a strong value bet.

Top-20 finish: Maverick McNealy (+333 via bet365)
McNealy boasts five top-10 finishes in 13 events this season. His above-average putting and driving distance align well with Quail Hollow's demands, making a top-20 finish a realistic target.

Top-20 finish: Keith Mitchell (+360 via DraftKings)
Mitchell has achieved four consecutive top-20 finishes and ranks in the top 10 for driving distance. His recent form and course compatibility suggest a strong chance for another top-20 finish.

Top-20 finish: Jake Knapp (+800 via BetRivers)
Knapp ranks in the top 25 for both putting and driving distance. His aggressive playstyle and three top-20 finishes in 13 starts this season indicate potential for a strong performance at Quail Hollow.

Top-20 finish: Phil Mickelson (+1100 via BetRivers)
Mickelson finished 12th or better in 10 of his 14 starts at Quail Hollow. His experience and course history make this a noteworthy long-shot bet.

Best long-shot pick to win: Aaron Rai (+15000 via DraftKings)
- Recent form: Rai has demonstrated consistent performance with a series of solid finishes leading up to the PGA Championship.
- Course compatibility: Quail Hollow favors precise ball-strikers, and Rai's accuracy off the tee and strong iron play align well with the course's demands.
- Motivation and momentum: As a rising English golfer seeking his first major breakthrough, Rai enters the tournament with determination and the momentum of recent strong performances.

**brock** · 05-13-25, 07:16 PM

Justin Thomas Played well last week and has done well playing in the PGA Championship.
My pick.

**SBR Andy** · 05-14-25, 07:59 AM

PGA Championship longshot picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Wyndham Clark
Best odds to win: +11000 via FanDuel
Alternate bet: Top 40 finish (+100 via Caesars)

"We continue to see ridiculously long betting odds on Clark amid a season in which he has just one top-10 finish (a T-5 in the Texas Children's Houston Open) through 11 events. Despite the lack of success, he hasn't missed a cut since The American Express in January, though he withdrew from The Players Championship.

Clark won the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club two years ago with a T-47 finish last year. He enters this week in strong statistical form outside of poor iron play and 0.38 strokes lost per round on approach. He's among the longest hitters in the field and won't face much penalty here for his inaccuracy off the tee.

The former major winner is gaining strokes on and around the greens, and he should benefit from having to hit more long irons on approach, as his real weakness this season has been his short irons and wedges. I love the even-money odds for a top-40 finish as a strong hedge against the outright flier."

Keith Mitchell
Best odds to win: +13000 via DraftKings
Alternate bet: Top 20 after Round 1 (+375 via bet365)

"Mitchell is best known for his first-round scoring this season, as he leads the PGA Tour with a scoring average of 66.55 through the first 18 holes of tournaments. He held the lead after Round 1 of the Truist Championship Signature Event but finished T-7, and that marked his fourth straight top-20 finish to climb back to No. 80 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

He returns to Quail Hollow Club after skipping last year's tournament in Charlotte. He has averaged 1.61 true strokes gained on the field per round across 16 rounds at this venue, with finishes of T-8 and T-3 in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

Mitchell's well above average in both driving distance and accuracy, and he's averaging 0.75 SG: approach over his last 20 measured rounds."

Niklas Norgaard
Best odds to win: +30000 via bet365
Alternate bet: Top Nordic player (+1300 via Caesars)

"Norgaard enters the week at No. 96 in the OWGR following a T-5 finish in last week's Myrtle Beach Classic. That was easily his best result since a T-4 in the DP World Tour's season-opening Hero Dubai Desert Classic, where he tied Rory McIlroy.

The 32-year-old Denmark native will play in his first career major this week, but it couldn't come at a better venue for him. Norgaard trails only Bryson DeChambeau and McIlroy in driving distance across his last 16 measured rounds, and he'll be able to use that to his advantage at Quail Hollow without much penalty for wayward drives. That should help ease the pressure."

**SBR Andy** · 05-14-25, 10:53 AM

Some Make/Miss Cut plays I'm on:

Miss Cut:

Dustin Johnson +120 (bet365)
Max Homa +120 (bet365)
Nick Dunlap -215 (DraftKings)
Padraig Harrington -200 (DraftKings)
Phil Mickelson -132 (FanDuel)

Make Cut:

Taylor Moore -125 (DraftKings)
Alex Noren -115 (DraftKings)
Ryo Hisatsune -105 (DraftKings)
Max McGreevy +100 (DraftKings)
Jacob Bridgeman -120 (DraftKings)
Niklas Norgaard -115 (DraftKings)
Bud Cauley -126 (FanDuel)

**SBR Andy** · 05-14-25, 01:22 PM

PGA Championship first-round leader predictions from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Joaquin Niemann (+4000 via FanDuel)

"Niemann played the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club three times before departing to the LIV Series with a best result of T-18 in 2021 as his final showing at the venue. The Chilean star has three victories on the LIV Series this year, and he won the Asian Tour's PIF Saudi International in December.

He ranks among the field leaders in driving distance, and his 1.64 strokes gained: tee-to-green rank 12th among this week's 156 competitors."

Min Woo Lee (+7000 via FanDuel)

"Lee claimed his first PGA Tour victory about a month-and-a-half ago and the Australian star will now compete in a 15th straight major. He's missed just four cuts in that time with a top finish of T-5 in the 2023 U.S. Open. His best result in the PGA Championship was a T-18 two years ago.

Lee can bomb it off the tee and won't face much penalty for inaccuracy, especially with his 8:11 a.m. ET tee time when the wind will be slightly lighter and while the course still plays softer following the rain early in the week. I expect him to play free-and-easy golf in the morning wave and to set the early pace."

Dean Burmester (+11000 via bet365)

"Burmester has just two top 10 finishes on the LIV Series this year, but he's been absolutely crushing the golf ball, and he finished in the top 20 of two of three majors played last year. The South African ranks behind only Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy in average driving distance over everyone's last 16 measured rounds. He's also gained strokes in every other key metric during that time.

Burmester will tee off early Thursday afternoon (1:09 p.m. ET) with Patrick Rodgers and Nick Taylor. The course should be playing firm and fast at that time following the morning sun and with help from afternoon wind gusts."

**brock** · 05-14-25, 02:06 PM

Make Cut:
Jacob Bridgeman -120 (DraftKings)
Bud Cauley -126 (FanDuel)
Thank you for the information.

**actiondan** · 05-14-25, 03:12 PM

poor padraig

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-16T13:26:37+00:00

Pretty wide open after Thursday. Not many big names on the leaderboard.

A few Top 20 bets after Rd 1:

K Mitchell +500
JJ Spaun +360
D Berger +250
K Bradley +115

And some outright sprinkles:

Vegas +2500
Rai +2800
Bradley +4000
Thorbjornsen +8000
Scott +9000
Berger +11000