(NBA) Playoff bets - 2025 Playoffs

[ProSportsEdge]

Any bets I make for Series or Individual games. I'll post here.

Thx to Johnny, Nash and any others for their posts.

Crazy to think he’s gone. That Colts era really was something special. RIP Jim.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NHL) Bonus play = CAROLINA (gm5) 2.08: 1 to win 1.08

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Minn (gm5) +9.5 1.75: 2 to win 1.50
...I'm buying one full-point. I know this isn't good strategy.
...Just feel like MINN will hang w/ Gobert, Conley et al. Good defensive team, season on the line. They don't lose by DD too often.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Minn (gm5) +9.5 1.75: 2 to win 1.50
...I'm buying one full-point. I know this isn't good strategy.
...Just feel like MINN will hang w/ Gobert, Conley et al. Good defensive team, season on the line. They don't lose by DD too often.

One other angle on MINN. They got blown out in the first two road games.
...Easy for people to take confidence in OKC @Home. Will chalk that up as a trend.
...People hate Gobert. That ignores the fact that he's a very good player. Expecting a great effort from MINN here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

W - ytd: -.31/37

Pacers come from way back and win it.

0-3. Missed it by THAT much. ytd: -3.31/40

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Future play: 2* OKC to win the West 1.71: 2 to win 1.42
...I've been chirping about this one. So, I'll put my money where my mouth is.
...Rising star team. So much reluctance b/c they have not done it yet.
...Good team chemistry, ego-less group. I think the resistance out West is < people think.

Winner. OKC goes 12-4 out west. Are they on the verge of becoming a dynasty?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ytd: -1.89/42. Mostly lame picks.

[actiondan]

budding dynasty, that seems to be the consensus. i think nba has had a new champ for 8 straight seasons
.

[johnnyvegas13]

ytd: -1.89/42. Mostly lame picks.

Been mostly a lame playoffs

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Been mostly a lame playoffs

Hi, Johnny. Hope all is well:

1) Been some upsets. So, I don't necessarily agree w/ that.
2) Specifically talking about my picks. Definitely missed a few good picks, just by being lazy.
3) I'm not working as hard this year. And it reflects in my (lack of) pick quality.

Hope the summer is treating you well, Johnny. Wishing you Good Health and Big Bank.

[johnnyvegas13]

Hi, Johnny. Hope all is well:

1) Been some upsets. So, I don't necessarily agree w/ that.
2) Specifically talking about my picks. Definitely missed a few good picks, just by being lazy.
3) I'm not working as hard this year. And it reflects in my (lack of) pick quality.

Hope the summer is treating you well, Johnny. Wishing you Good Health and Big Bank.

Have a nice summer chuck

see ya in about 3 months …

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ytd: -1.89/42. Mostly lame picks.

2* (Adjusted Series Line) OKC -1.5 games 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...If I win this, can effectively get back to Break-even.
...Been thinking about ways to bet on OKC. Think this is +EV. My simulation rates this as a 56% type of play.
...OKC has championship defense. IND doesn't.
...Recency-bias tilted to IND. Don't think they beat CLE if CLE is full-strength. Too many CLE injuries.
...IND shot the lights out in Gm1. Effective FG% won't be tilted that way in one more game this series.
...Barring an injury to SGA or Holmgren, still think this series is all-OKC. People still doubt them.
...The Haliburton heroics have been impressive. But that wears out sooner than later.

[johnnyvegas13]

2* (Adjusted Series Line) OKC -1.5 games 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...If I win this, can effectively get back to Break-even.
...Been thinking about ways to bet on OKC. Think this is +EV. My simulation rates this as a 56% type of play.
...OKC has championship defense. IND doesn't.
...Recency-bias tilted to IND. Don't think they beat CLE if CLE is full-strength. Too many CLE injuries.
...IND shot the lights out in Gm1. Effective FG% won't be tilted that way in one more game this series.
...Barring an injury to SGA or Holmgren, still think this series is all-OKC. People still doubt them.
...The Haliburton heroics have been impressive. But that wears out sooner than later.

Ot sure I like this play

i could see okc in 7

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ot sure I like this play

i could see okc in 7

Thx for the note, John. We shall see. IND has momentum for sure.

Like Chris Berman used to say: "THAT'S why they play the games."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* IND (gm2) UNDER 108.5 pts 1.91: 1 to win .91
...OKC is a great Def team. They emphasize it.
...Looking for the Pacers to cool off a little. Taking team-total Under.

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, they struggled to get to 111 on Thursday. I smell regression.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

^
Yeah, they struggled to get to 111 on Thursday. I smell regression.

That's what I think, Nashy. OKC put two guys on the All-Defense teams (top 10).

Not many teams play defense like them in 2025. Expecting a strong effort.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* IND (gm2) UNDER 108.5 pts 1.91: 1 to win .91
...OKC is a great Def team. They emphasize it.
...Looking for the Pacers to cool off a little. Taking team-total Under.

Was close but it does Win. ytd: -.98/43.

OKC should be back on course. At least I hope so.

[Getch13]

Game 3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, Getch. Appreciate the post.

Two things:
1) I know people love playing those parlays. Books know this, too.
2) Does anyone ever contemplate the correlation element to multiple scoring Overs? IE, if Turner is scoring, that means Nesmith can't score that bucket.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* (Adjusted Series Line) OKC -1.5 games 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...If I win this, can effectively get back to Break-even.
...Been thinking about ways to bet on OKC. Think this is +EV. My simulation rates this as a 56% type of play.
...OKC has championship defense. IND doesn't.
...Recency-bias tilted to IND. Don't think they beat CLE if CLE is full-strength. Too many CLE injuries.
...IND shot the lights out in Gm1. Effective FG% won't be tilted that way in one more game this series.
...Barring an injury to SGA or Holmgren, still think this series is all-OKC. People still doubt them.
...The Haliburton heroics have been impressive. But that wears out sooner than later.

Props to IND. Lost this one.
*L = -2. ytd: -2.98/45

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4* OKC (gm7) -8 1.91: 4 to win 3.64
...Pacers off a great home win. McConnell was incredibly good. Re-peatable?
...Think the perspective is now tilted too much toward IND. -8 = at least two points of line-value IMHO.
...If you go back far enough in the NBA history, Game 7 on home-court mattered. The atmosphere would sometimes suffocate the opponent. Deep in the playoffs, home-chalk normally holds.

Just my opinion. GL to anyone in action.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4* OKC (gm7) -8 1.91: 4 to win 3.64
...Pacers off a great home win. McConnell was incredibly good. Re-peatable?
...Think the perspective is now tilted too much toward IND. -8 = at least two points of line-value IMHO.
...If you go back far enough in the NBA history, Game 7 on home-court mattered. The atmosphere would sometimes suffocate the opponent. Deep in the playoffs, home-chalk normally holds.

Just my opinion. GL to anyone in action.

*Was driving around. Listened to ten minutes of sports-talk radio.
...I'm convinced OKC is the right side for Gm 7.
...The talking-heads love IND. They're fascinated and love the +8.
...Sports-hacks are usually on the wrong side in this situation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4* OKC (gm7) -8 1.91: 4 to win 3.64
...Pacers off a great home win. McConnell was incredibly good. Re-peatable?
...Think the perspective is now tilted too much toward IND. -8 = at least two points of line-value IMHO.
...If you go back far enough in the NBA history, Game 7 on home-court mattered. The atmosphere would sometimes suffocate the opponent. Deep in the playoffs, home-chalk normally holds.

Just my opinion. GL to anyone in action.

Adding: 1* OKC -7.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Total of five units on this game.
...Feel like public-opinion is way too lopsided. Public Dog may get toasted.
...Love the OKC defense. Think they put the kibosh on IND in the deciding game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL to everyone in action. Win or lose, enjoy the game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props to IND. Lost this one.
*L = -2. ytd: -2.98/45

Win. Gm = +4.55/5
...YTD: +1.57/50