1. #1
    No coincidences
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    Too many posters look to the past instead of the present when making bets

    I see guys all the time posting about something that happened last week, or a few weeks ago, or last month. Then I see all of the "trend" stats that you can pick up from any garden variety website with one click.

    Fellas I'm far from an expert, but you have to look at each individual game with its own identity. Delve deep into that particular matchup on that particular night. Of course this racket is incredibly difficult to beat and nothing is guaranteed, but the more you look to the here and now (recent form, potential strengths/weaknesses vs. that given opponent, motivation on that particular week, opportunities to sell high or buy low ATS, etc.) and ignore what happened in a game last month or the "Team A crushed Team B and Team C crushed Team A, so that means Team C will crush Team B" stuff, the better off you'll be. There is no transitive property in gambling, and there is zero evidence that an event or a result six weeks ago will give you tonight's answers.


  2. #2
    Smoke
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  3. #3
    tatddy
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    Coiner so verbose today.

    What's past isn't prologue...bout it?

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  4. #4
    Sam Odom
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    Sharp

  5. #5
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Coiner so verbose today.

    What's past isn't prologue...bout it?


    I was just thinking about this last night after getting trashed for backing South Florida vs. Houston. I'd watched both teams and knew there were enough soft spots in Houston's defense for USF to score -- no matter how pitiful their O has been -- and the Bull defense would do enough to cover. I even had a guy respond by trashing USF re: their loss to McNeese State almost two months ago. Seriously?

    Anyway....

  6. #6
    rthoughton
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    couldn't agree more.

    esp wit the Team A beats B who lost to C shit... That crap is irrelevant because of matchups.

  7. #7
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by rthoughton View Post
    couldn't agree more.

    esp wit the Team A beats B who lost to C shit... That crap is irrelevant because of matchups.
    I don't really want to single anyone out here and I hope he doesn't mind, but read 2DaBank's threads in the NFL Forum sometimes. He's great at pointing out why certain teams match up well or poorly vs. others, which typically explains why a line is set where it is (i.e., Arizona last week over Atlanta) -- not to "surprise" or "trap" people, but to reward gamblers who actually have a clue.

  8. #8
    I/O
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  9. #9
    Big Bear
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  10. #10
    YOUNGBUCK
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    I agree but still have to take into account teams coming off big wins, byes, and blowout losses too

  11. #11
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by YOUNGBUCK View Post
    I agree but still have to take into account teams coming off big wins, byes, and blowout losses too
    That's all part of current form. I have no problem with looking at what a team did the week before, or what kind of shape they're in coming into a game.

    There are so many trends and stats that are completely and utterly meaningless that sites try to push as "important" to gamblers.

  12. #12
    Sam Odom
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    NoCoin has evolved into one of SBR's TOP 10 Sharps

    Sammy is impressed

  13. #13
    YOUNGBUCK
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    Yes Definitely like USC has never lost on a Friday with a full moon and 64% humidity

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