Too many posters look to the past instead of the present when making bets

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Too many posters look to the past instead of the present when making bets
    I see guys all the time posting about something that happened last week, or a few weeks ago, or last month. Then I see all of the "trend" stats that you can pick up from any garden variety website with one click.

    Fellas I'm far from an expert, but you have to look at each individual game with its own identity. Delve deep into that particular matchup on that particular night. Of course this racket is incredibly difficult to beat and nothing is guaranteed, but the more you look to the here and now (recent form, potential strengths/weaknesses vs. that given opponent, motivation on that particular week, opportunities to sell high or buy low ATS, etc.) and ignore what happened in a game last month or the "Team A crushed Team B and Team C crushed Team A, so that means Team C will crush Team B" stuff, the better off you'll be. There is no transitive property in gambling, and there is zero evidence that an event or a result six weeks ago will give you tonight's answers.

  • Smoke
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-09-09
    • 48111

    #2
    Comment
    • tatddy
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-02-10
      • 10779

      #3
      Coiner so verbose today.

      What's past isn't prologue...bout it?
      Comment
      • Sam Odom
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-30-05
        • 58063

        #4
        Sharp
        Comment
        • No coincidences
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-18-10
          • 76300

          #5
          Originally posted by tatddy
          Coiner so verbose today.

          What's past isn't prologue...bout it?


          I was just thinking about this last night after getting trashed for backing South Florida vs. Houston. I'd watched both teams and knew there were enough soft spots in Houston's defense for USF to score -- no matter how pitiful their O has been -- and the Bull defense would do enough to cover. I even had a guy respond by trashing USF re: their loss to McNeese State almost two months ago. Seriously?

          Anyway....
          Comment
          • rthoughton
            SBR MVP
            • 12-27-09
            • 1992

            #6
            couldn't agree more.

            esp wit the Team A beats B who lost to C shit... That crap is irrelevant because of matchups.
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Originally posted by rthoughton
              couldn't agree more.

              esp wit the Team A beats B who lost to C shit... That crap is irrelevant because of matchups.
              I don't really want to single anyone out here and I hope he doesn't mind, but read 2DaBank's threads in the NFL Forum sometimes. He's great at pointing out why certain teams match up well or poorly vs. others, which typically explains why a line is set where it is (i.e., Arizona last week over Atlanta) -- not to "surprise" or "trap" people, but to reward gamblers who actually have a clue.
              Comment
              • I/O
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-26-11
                • 7922

                #8
                Comment
                • Big Bear
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-01-11
                  • 43253

                  #9
                  Comment
                  • YOUNGBUCK
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-16-10
                    • 6510

                    #10
                    I agree but still have to take into account teams coming off big wins, byes, and blowout losses too
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by YOUNGBUCK
                      I agree but still have to take into account teams coming off big wins, byes, and blowout losses too
                      That's all part of current form. I have no problem with looking at what a team did the week before, or what kind of shape they're in coming into a game.

                      There are so many trends and stats that are completely and utterly meaningless that sites try to push as "important" to gamblers.
                      Comment
                      • Sam Odom
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-30-05
                        • 58063

                        #12
                        NoCoin has evolved into one of SBR's TOP 10 Sharps

                        Sammy is impressed
                        Comment
                        • YOUNGBUCK
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 12-16-10
                          • 6510

                          #13
                          Yes Definitely like USC has never lost on a Friday with a full moon and 64% humidity
                          Comment
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