Nash 2026 NCAA Selections, analysis, game time talk...

[stevenash]

Saturday 8/29
North Carolina +8.5

The game is being played on a neutral field in Dublin.
The feeling here is that if TCU were hosting the game in Fort Worth, the line would be sharp at 8.5
The line at midnight was TCU -9.5; I've been liking NC all week; they were bet down to 8.5 earlier this morning.
I wish I bought the 9.5 last night

"Buzzy 'The Bookie '" once taught me years ago, back in the day when your pal Nasher had a full set of hair, and the T-Rex roamed in my daddy's back yard,
Buzzy said to me, "As a rule of thumb, home field advantage is worth 3.5 points on the average. For powerhouse D1 home stadiums like Ohio State, Alabama, and about six other teams, their HFA is worth 4.5 - 5.5 points; TCU's home field rates a solid four points, or 4.5.

On a neutral field, IMO, TCU is a six-point favorite in this matchup, not 8.5 or 9.5

Value bet.
NC + 8.5

[Optional]

Nice call partner

[stevenash]

Thanks, Opt,

I thought the extra point North Carolina missed in the 1Q was going to come back to me on the ass, because every time I wager on a team and there's a missed XP, it usually comes back to bite me.

Nice to get an outright win to start Week o

[Ian]

Nice hit, Nash. Belichick's defense was too much for TCU.

[stevenash]

Thanks for that, Ian. Yes, the defense also played a part in the NC selection.

And that's a razor-sharp insight you brought up.
Anytime you can get NC with a handful of points early on in the season, you must at the very least consider them to cover.

It's rare in this day and age, with all the information available to most who seek it out, that you'll be hard-pressed to find 'soft lines'.

It happens; the books are not in the habit of dealing 'soft lines'. Having said that, the chances of finding them at the beginning of the season are obvious. Once the season gets into the fourth or fifth weeks, the books have made the adjustments that eliminate that edge.

It's as if the books are saying early on, when the lines are set early in the season, "We know, at least we think we know, but in reality, we don't really know for certain" (don't 'ya know)?

As the great John Cena used to say, "You want some, go get some"

[Jayvegas420]

Great call do you have anything for Thursday?

[stevenash]

Great call do you have anything for Thursday?

Thanks, Jay.
Thursday is really tough; most of the slate is four-touchdown favorites.
When lines get to over 30, it becomes a crapshoot.

This is what I'm going to do.
Take care of baseball; that's my bread and butter.
Tomorrow I'll look at teams like Merrimack; that's a school I'm familiar with. Let's see if I can come up with a value play.
I'd rather not make a Thursday selection than force a play,

[toughone]

simple yes or no?
anybody?

[stevenash]

Holy Mother of God, UMASS, a 30-point underdog, is waylaying Rutgers in New Jersey.

This is the same UMASS team that went 0-12 last season.
The Minutemen have only been playing D1 football since 2012.
In those 14 years, UMASS has won 27 games and lost 134.

27-134, that's next-level stinky.
If Rutgers doesn't pull a rabbit out of their ass and come back to win, Schiano's practices next week will be brutal.
This loss (pending) will be hard to live down.

UMASS, really?

[stevenash]

Friday 9/4

Eastern Michigan -2.5 San Jose State

Both are good mid-major schools.
Two reasons I like EMU

a) EMU at home
They have a good fan base.

b) San Jose has to be exhausted from last week's loss to USC.
SJU used a boatload of energy in the fourth quarter against SC, scoring three late TDs to make things very interesting for the Trojans
That plane trip from Cali to Michigan had to be tortuous.

Eastern Michigan -2.5 San Jose State

[stevenash]

^
That was a good game.
I was on the wrong side of a really good, back-and-forth game. But it was a good game.

UConn 56
Lafayette 7

Our new team slogan
"UConn, we don't suck at football anymore"

Seriously, I'm a homer; I watched that game.
The football team hasn't looked this good in almost 20 years.
Coach Mora knows football.