40 Points: The first to answer this probability question correctly.

durito · 12-09-09, 07:05 PM

ah, i know what i did wrong

TheRock · 12-09-09, 07:08 PM

wow...what a joke

RickySteve · 12-09-09, 07:22 PM

Damn it. Just saw this.

mr. leisure · 12-09-09, 07:25 PM

I wish i was smart enough to get this stuff

MonkeyF0cker · 12-09-09, 08:35 PM

As I hinted, this is a combinatorial problem. First, you have to find all of the combinations of 4 wins out of 6 games. Next, have to assign the probability of each result and multiply them together to get the probability of each combination of occurring. After that, we add them all up to get the total probability.

We have 3 home games and 3 away games. For simplicity's sake, the format is HHHAAA. Now we list all of the combinations. To verify how many we should have, we use n choose k.

6!/(4!2!) = 720/48 = 15

All of the combinations:

LLWWWW
LWLWWW
LWWLWW
LWWWLW
LWWWWL
WLLWWW
WLWLWW
WLWWLW
WLWWWL
WWLLWW
WWLWLW
WWLWWL
WWWLLW
WWWLWL
WWWWLL

Now we assign the probability to each win or loss. Note that a home win is 0.42 so for a home loss, the probability would be 1 - 0.42 = 0.58.

So for the first combination, the probability would be .58 x .58 x .42 x .16 x .16 x .16 = .001737

If you add up all of the combinations, you arrive at .046629 or 4.66%.

Jimmy0607 · 12-09-09, 09:08 PM

Good stuff

Indecent · 12-09-09, 10:05 PM

Good problem, thanks for making me refresh the noggin. Combinatorics was one of my favorite classes in college, sorry I missed this thread.

nobs · 12-09-09, 11:10 PM

So Mr X wins the 40 points ?

He said .0466 which is 4.66%

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:20 PM

I said 3 to 5%. Like an hour ago and I did it in my head. You have to be able to do this stuff in your head during halftime, at the book, with sweaty, hairy degenerates all around you or you won't make it.

But 4.66 looks correct. Mr. X forgot to divide by 3 though in the top bracket on the left and the bottom bracket on the right. I belive you divide and not multiply by 3 as well because there are 2 games.

And I believe you are Mr. X.

MonkeyF0cker · 12-09-09, 11:21 PM

Yes. See post #18, nobs.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:22 PM

I mean 3 games. 46% +46% +54%/3 = you're probability of two wins and a loss.

Anyway, fun stuff. And yeah, I was a law major. That's my excuse!

MonkeyF0cker · 12-09-09, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

I said 3 to 5%. Like an hour ago and I did it in my head. You have to be able to do this stuff in your head during halftime, at the book, with sweaty, hairy degenerates all around you or you won't make it.

But 4.66 looks correct. Mr. X forgot to divide by 3 though in the top bracket on the left and the bottom bracket on the right. I belive you divide and not multiply by 3 as well because there are 2 games.

And I believe you are Mr. X.

You are an absolute moron.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:34 PM

Mods??? Do I have to put up with this? Monkeyfukk is insulting other posters? Lets see the ban.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:35 PM

Mods? I am being insulted.

MrX · 12-09-09, 11:40 PM

And just for the record, Cube, it so happens there was a hairy degenerate in my immediate proximity when I answered this.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:42 PM

OH I SEE MY ERROR.

3 WINS AT HOME, AND ONE WIN ON THE ROAD HAS 3 WAYS OF HAPPENING.
(.42 x.42 x.42) x (.16 x .82 x .82 x 3) because there are 3 ways of having one loss on the road, game 1, game 2, or game 3.

and there are 3 ways of having 1 win and 2 losses at home, 2 wins and 1 loss at home, 1 win and 2 losses on the road, 2 wins and 1 loss on the road, etc.

But there is only one way to have 3 losses on the road (.82 x .82 x.82).

Gee my mistake. How does that make me a moron.

When I typed 2, I meant 3, how does that make me a moron?

Because I don't post any plays huh?

I just know some high school probability and I brag about it and make 45 year olds feel stupid because they forgot it. Oh, that makes you so smart and special.

But can you cap games at 88%??? Are you a moron?

Am I a moron because I cap at 88%???

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:44 PM

That's great Mr. X, haha. I'm glad you have you're blackberry with calculator there at the book.

I'm the only hairy degen here at the computer lab, but uh... yeah you win. Like I said 3-5%, as soon as Monkeyfukk asked the question.

By the time you answered it, it would be too slow. You have to be quick sometimes.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:46 PM

Monkeyfukk, how am I a moron?

Mods... Why do I have to put up with these insults?

Everytime I start insulting, I get a message. Is Monkey getting a message too?

Or is Monkey, Mr.X and you, the night moderator all the same person?

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:47 PM

Yeah, and 3 losses on the road would DQ, so you would need 3 wins on the road (.18 x .18 x .18), my bad.

pavyracer · 12-09-09, 11:50 PM

MonkeyF0cker, Mr.X are different guys. At least they were the last time I saw them. Not sure there is a moderator at work right now unless Justin7 is working late on his capping book.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-09-09, 11:56 PM

Thanks Pavy!

Anyway, Monkeyfukk. Am I a moron for being the first one to answer your prob. question?

It might take a while for an answer here guys. Monkeyfukk is a little slow. How do I know this? Because he hasn't posted a play since March 19!!!

MonkeyF0cker · 12-10-09, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

OH I SEE MY ERROR.

3 WINS AT HOME, AND ONE WIN ON THE ROAD HAS 3 WAYS OF HAPPENING.
(.42 x.42 x.42) x (.16 x .82 x .82 x 3) because there are 3 ways of having one loss on the road, game 1, game 2, or game 3.

and there are 3 ways of having 1 win and 2 losses at home, 2 wins and 1 loss at home, 1 win and 2 losses on the road, 2 wins and 1 loss on the road, etc.

But there is only one way to have 3 losses on the road (.82 x .82 x.82).

Gee my mistake. How does that make me a moron.

When I typed 2, I meant 3, how does that make me a moron?

Because I don't post any plays huh?

I just know some high school probability and I brag about it and make 45 year olds feel stupid because they forgot it. Oh, that makes you so smart and special.

But can you cap games at 88%??? Are you a moron?

Am I a moron because I cap at 88%???

You win 88% ATS?

MonkeyF0cker · 12-10-09, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

Thanks Pavy!

Anyway, Monkeyfukk. Am I a moron for being the first one to answer your prob. question?

It might take a while for an answer here guys. Monkeyfukk is a little slow. How do I know this? Because he hasn't posted a play since March 19!!!

You still haven't answered it correctly...

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-10-09, 01:45 AM

Well 3-5% isn't correct??? The chances are terrible, cuz that team sucks. There's not much more to it. I see you are 0-0 since March.

Yes I'm 88% ATS with my posted plays (15-2-3). On mySBRspace, not my Private Zone plays.

GELATINOUS CUBE · 12-10-09, 01:46 AM

So 88% makes me a moron?

huh monkyfuk?

MilfDriller · 12-10-09, 02:04 AM

Lol, I hadn't read your reply, you dumb fraud.

No doubt you are a coward just as durito is. And surely you are a moron just as surely as you are not some semi-Indian as you claim to be.... as tho you are an immediate descendant of the Wager Chief foto above.

I'll look at your thread now.

yisman · 12-10-09, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

Or is Monkey, Mr.X and you, the night moderator all the same person?

You are the only unique poster here. You should know by now that all the others are puppets of one master hand.

I just happen to be the smartest and best-looking puppet, that's all.

tbone40143 · 12-10-09, 02:10 AM

12%

MilfDriller · 12-10-09, 02:48 AM

Now that we have established that you are the resident genius, let's see you post some picks and hit your 51.2%.

MilfDriller · 12-10-09, 02:50 AM

Join the best bet thread and prove your genius. Post your picks 10 seconds before tip-off so that Vegas is not annihilated by your action.

Prove yourself over time. We know durito is a coward and thinks Cutler is God's gift to QB's... and can't pick his nose let alone top 43%.

Go for it.

roasthawg · 12-10-09, 03:03 AM

Nice question... I just hammered it out in excel. Took me longer than I expected, good stuff!

MonkeyF0cker · 12-10-09, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by MilfDriller

Join the best bet thread and prove your genius. Post your picks 10 seconds before tip-off so that Vegas is not annihilated by your action.

Prove yourself over time. We know durito is a coward and thinks Cutler is God's gift to QB's... and can't pick his nose let alone top 43%.

Go for it.

It's truly amazing to me that some people are so ignorant that they don't know the most elementary handicapping concepts like market efficiency. You have to be one of the most clueless individuals on SBR.

MonkeyF0cker · 12-10-09, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Nice question... I just hammered it out in excel. Took me longer than I expected, good stuff!

MilfDriller · 12-10-09, 05:08 AM

Sorry, bro, posting 'ONE PICK' per day 10 secs before tip is not going to bring down Vegas or diminish your returns... as delusional as you may seem.

You seem to be under the impression that you're Jesse Livermore or Ed Seykota.

Btw, roasthawg finished your quiz yet he has produced the following result:

roasthawg 105-87-2 +1.55

My result is as follows:

MilfDriller 58-37-5 +28.75

I mean no disrespect to roasthawg. Especially since he has not talked any shit and went on about his incredible self-importance. But I'm not sure you would attain roasthawg's level. And if your idea of a good QB is Cutler, just as it is the idea of Einstein Von Durito, then I think you'll do rather poorly.

I would very much like to understand the pomposity and arrogance of posters such as don juan, Monkey, durito, and the like.

One of the few civil math guys is RageWizard. I'm curious as to why he does not go around acting as if his shit is made of solid gold and encrusted with spikes of diamonds... while his piss is liquid that instantly turns to sapphires once his piss hits the ground.

twister · 12-10-09, 05:17 AM

A TT type thread in PT...? Interesting developments.