Packers ML thread

TWEETS · 10-04-09, 10:33 PM

I'm kind of figuring that with the publics love affair with Favre, we ought to be able to get this around +210 tomorrow afternoon.

anthonydiamondLC · 10-04-09, 11:20 PM

I'm in at +170

lakerboy · 10-04-09, 11:21 PM

i agree packers are the play here.

anthonydiamondLC · 10-04-09, 11:41 PM

I really don't think it will be close after the 1st quarter. The packers are the better team. The vikings are the weaker team and this line should be closer to a pick em but because a lot of people like farve and especially after last week this line is going up and up.

og4667 · 10-05-09, 12:12 AM

packers moneyline is the play. The Betting public is favoring Minnesota. The betting public is correct when moving the money line in GREEN BAY games 28% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-18).

PorkChop · 10-05-09, 12:14 AM

I wish I could make a play on Charles Woodson picking off Favre

Ulver86 · 10-05-09, 12:17 AM

have you guys seen the packers run D?

this game isn't about Favre, its about AP and the Vikings D line

hell, Cedric Benson ran for 140+ on them

Tha Hook · 10-05-09, 09:12 AM

I agree Ulver however I too believe that Green Bay is the better team I think Green Bay is the play with the points ........still trying to decide if I can pull the trigger on ML although with TWEETS if the value is there Ill go 100 on it

Fishhead · 10-05-09, 09:17 AM

Be sure to check out the SBR POINTS forum..........you can take a swing on the game.

brooks85 · 10-05-09, 09:27 AM

green bay is the better team, which league are we talking about?

rogers will have too turn this into a shootout to win because AP is going to run all over them and even then, do you really want a shootout against farve?

thejrichshow85 · 10-05-09, 09:48 AM

green bay wins 41-24

lakerboy · 10-05-09, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by thejrichshow85

green bay wins 41-24

im with you on this game. last week we both took panthers and got burned. do you feel better about this play?

infamousbacardi · 10-05-09, 10:04 AM

Hey guys...I'm a die hard all my life Packer fan, so I can't bet on this game...BUT...I do have insight as a non biased bettor...because...I do bet a lot...here is what I think guys...
1) Look up APs stats against Packers in last 2 years...you might be surprised...the Packers have had horrible defensive coaching the last few seasons...but still have contained AP in 3.5 of the 4 games...he got off in one of the halfs, but that was a long 50 yarder I believe...overall, they've done pretty well against AP the last few seasons, and this is a better coached defense.
2) I truly think the Packers have been hiding some of their pressure packages on defense for this game. This game was circled for the Packers and the Vikings as soon as Favre first started about coming back. EVERYONE with any knowledge of the Favre saga knew he was coming back way before pre-season started, because Favre's family purchased 20 hotel rooms for the same date as the game was to be played (today) back in like early early July. Anyway, I think the defense has been scaled back the first 3 weeks, so as to surprise Favre and the Vikings...they blitzed A LOT in the pre-season, and we haven't really done much of that in the last 2 weeks. I think Favre will be under HEAVY pressure, and the guys will be there in the box to get on AP...
3) The Packers however, have to be careful with screens to AP...that is where we can get torched. A big thing to watch anytime betting on/against Packers, is the opposing teams TE...Packers LBs aren't great against TEs in coverage. Shiancoe isn't world class, so not much worry from him...but he should have above average game for him. Also, again, watch AP out of the backfield on screens. Packers will bring pressure, AP will have to catch the ball to move offense well.
4) Vikings biggest weakness is the same as it's been for years...they have no secondary. Rodgers should have a great game if the o-line can give him just a little time...which, might be difficult.

All in all...as a Packer fan however...I do feel like the Packers have been hiding some stuff on defense for this game...and I do feel like they have a great chance to win this game...plus, don't forget guys, this is a HUGE rivalry game even if Favre is retired today...so the hatred is there, let alone the extra motivation with Favre. We'll see what happens, but I ceratinly think Packers ML has a chance...I won't be betting on the game, because I have enough emotionally invested with my Packers playing...but do as you wish...here are a couple last minute things to consider...

Packers have won 5 of last 6 total meetings
1 Vikings victory was by 1 point...
The last time the Vikings beat the Packers by more than 5 points was in 2002...and they play twice a year.

I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Enjoy the game guys!!!

DeluxeLiner · 10-05-09, 11:01 AM

Probably some good value on that moneyline...i'll be shocked if it's not close.

Wrigley · 10-05-09, 11:03 AM

vikes win by double digits tonight

alka07 · 10-05-09, 11:07 AM

i think i will bet a medium bet on green bay on this one

Boddhissatva · 10-05-09, 11:15 AM

Yeah...I"m thinking about betting on the money line as well for the Packers...

part of me thinks a VIkings Blow out...

but then another part of me thinks that the Packers coaching staff and team are well aware of all of Favre's weaknesses...
and fundamentally...the Packers are slightly the better team.

brooks85 · 10-05-09, 11:20 AM

im speechless.. GB is not the better team, there is no other way to slice it, stats speak for themselves.

GB made some offseason changes and its going to take awhile to get things to gel. They are struggling on D and their run game is garbaho.

geebert74 · 10-05-09, 11:23 AM

Vikings -3... Take it to the bank!

Fishhead · 10-05-09, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Be sure to check out the SBR POINTS forum..........you can take a swing on the game.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/241621-risk-10-11-20-22-sbr-points-green-bay-minnesota-game.html

Boddhissatva · 10-05-09, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by brooks85

im speechless.. GB is not the better team, there is no other way to slice it, stats speak for themselves.

GB made some offseason changes and its going to take awhile to get things to gel. They are struggling on D and their run game is garbaho.

LOL...maybe I should just stick to MMA. I fare way better in those bets.

xxxvince · 10-05-09, 11:41 AM

if u lose to bengals. u shouldnt dream big pack fans
aaron rodgers sucks!

xxxvince · 10-05-09, 11:43 AM

stupid packers fans, i am just saying tooo

STATS!!!!
MAYBE RANDY MOSS SHOULD MOON ON UR FACE AGAIN PACKERS FAN
this time.. the real moon, not the fake one

Originally posted by infamousbacardi

Hey guys...I'm a die hard all my life Packer fan, so I can't bet on this game...BUT...I do have insight as a non biased bettor...because...I do bet a lot...here is what I think guys...
1) Look up APs stats against Packers in last 2 years...you might be surprised...the Packers have had horrible defensive coaching the last few seasons...but still have contained AP in 3.5 of the 4 games...he got off in one of the halfs, but that was a long 50 yarder I believe...overall, they've done pretty well against AP the last few seasons, and this is a better coached defense.
2) I truly think the Packers have been hiding some of their pressure packages on defense for this game. This game was circled for the Packers and the Vikings as soon as Favre first started about coming back. EVERYONE with any knowledge of the Favre saga knew he was coming back way before pre-season started, because Favre's family purchased 20 hotel rooms for the same date as the game was to be played (today) back in like early early July. Anyway, I think the defense has been scaled back the first 3 weeks, so as to surprise Favre and the Vikings...they blitzed A LOT in the pre-season, and we haven't really done much of that in the last 2 weeks. I think Favre will be under HEAVY pressure, and the guys will be there in the box to get on AP...
3) The Packers however, have to be careful with screens to AP...that is where we can get torched. A big thing to watch anytime betting on/against Packers, is the opposing teams TE...Packers LBs aren't great against TEs in coverage. Shiancoe isn't world class, so not much worry from him...but he should have above average game for him. Also, again, watch AP out of the backfield on screens. Packers will bring pressure, AP will have to catch the ball to move offense well.
4) Vikings biggest weakness is the same as it's been for years...they have no secondary. Rodgers should have a great game if the o-line can give him just a little time...which, might be difficult.

All in all...as a Packer fan however...I do feel like the Packers have been hiding some stuff on defense for this game...and I do feel like they have a great chance to win this game...plus, don't forget guys, this is a HUGE rivalry game even if Favre is retired today...so the hatred is there, let alone the extra motivation with Favre. We'll see what happens, but I ceratinly think Packers ML has a chance...I won't be betting on the game, because I have enough emotionally invested with my Packers playing...but do as you wish...here are a couple last minute things to consider...

Packers have won 5 of last 6 total meetings
1 Vikings victory was by 1 point...
The last time the Vikings beat the Packers by more than 5 points was in 2002...and they play twice a year.

I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Enjoy the game guys!!!

sweetjones55 · 10-05-09, 11:45 AM

Adrian Peterson and the Vikings want to win this game for Brett. AP may have not ran well in his prior games against GB but you have to realize that he didn't have the passing threat that the Vikings do have now. Favre, Harvin, Berrian, and Schiancoe are a potent passing attack and you can't just stack the box every play like GB did in the past. The crowd is going to be out of control and if the Vikings get on the board first, GB better watch out. This game can get ugly.

infamousbacardi · 10-05-09, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by xxxvince

STATS!!!! MAYBE RANDY MOSS SHOULD MOON ON UR FACE AGAIN PACKERS FAN this time.. the real moon, not the fake one

Just watch the game moron.

TheSkeptic · 10-05-09, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by anthonydiamondLC

I really don't think it will be close after the 1st quarter. The packers are the better team. The vikings are the weaker team and this line should be closer to a pick em but because a lot of people like farve and especially after last week this line is going up and up.

Are you out of your mind? The packers are NOT the better team!

Minnesota offense: 29.3
GB offense: 27

Minnesota defense: 19
GB defense: 21

Minnesota 3rd down efficiency: 42
GB: 33

I dunno - maybe I'm just seeing things.

infamousbacardi · 10-05-09, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Adrian Peterson and the Vikings want to win this game for Brett. AP may have not ran well in his prior games against GB but you have to realize that he didn't have the passing threat that the Vikings do have now. Favre, Harvin, Berrian, and Schiancoe are a potent passing attack and you can't just stack the box every play like GB did in the past. The crowd is going to be out of control and if the Vikings get on the board first, GB better watch out. This game can get ugly.

The passing attack means nothing...this game is as simple as this...stop AP...win the game. Vikings have no secondary, as always...and the Packers strength is passing attack...Packers need to spread it out, and bootleg Rodgers to give him a little more time. This game won't be a cake walk.

brooks85 · 10-05-09, 11:49 AM

hey dont let me talk you off a bet, look at my spreadsheet, not exactly making the right calls.

Are you going to make any bets on dream 11 tonight? Im reallllllly liking minowa.

CupWanted · 10-05-09, 11:52 AM

I have two extremely conflicting theories about this game. On paper Minnesota should blow them out. The pack has given up a lot of points to cinci, chicago, and St. Louis, none of which are great offenses. Add to that the pack cant run the ball and is going up against one of the best run Ds in the game. The Vikings seconday isn't anything special but i dont see rogers having a lot of time to throw given the packers pourus O-line. Then take the LT Clifton out and insert a Guard at LT vs. Jared Allen? he should have 5 sacks. But then you look at the historical matchups and GB has won 6 of the last 7 and the Viking win came by a point. I'd like to put a small play in tonight but im puzzled between each side of the spread or the pack ML. The vikes ML just lacks value imo.

lakerboy · 10-05-09, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by xxxvince

if u lose to bengals. u shouldnt dream big pack fans
aaron rodgers sucks!

Didn't bengals beat the steelers? Learn the game

dbldown · 10-05-09, 12:01 PM

I'm not sure how anyone could be so sure of a Packer win here - I think the Vikings defense will be a bigger impact than Farve or Peterson.

Boddhissatva · 10-05-09, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

hey dont let me talk you off a bet, look at my spreadsheet, not exactly making the right calls.

Are you going to make any bets on dream 11 tonight? Im reallllllly liking minowa.

I'll meet you back over there in the MMA forum.

juuso · 10-05-09, 12:19 PM

I like Green Bay for a small bet today. Played over for more.

TheSkeptic · 10-05-09, 12:33 PM

im happy so many are on GB - i have this line at -6 or -7.