I liked your totals parlay but this one looks square, ngl. It's every bookie's dream for people to parlay every huge fav ML of the day because it's the easiest thing to do. I didn't look at the card yet but I'm pretty sure I'll take a few dogs on that list.
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had a response typed and submitted that for some reason didn’t clear.
i agree its a pretty square bet, but this week the first 4 games are home favorites, all fighting for a top playoff spot, or in miamis case, a backdoor playoff spot.
Who is betting against Buffalo? Even if I won the first 4 games I don’t see myself hedging on that 1. But if I get to the Dallas game I will for sure hedge 1k for a 1k gtd profit.
i think the toughest game will be tonight for sure. Detroit def did not play well last week, and Gbay looked dominant. But if I can survive tonight I’ll be excited.
this is the pts parlay I’ll be doing this week, but waiting til I drive up Sunday to place it:
PIT O15.5 -800BUF O17.5 -550CIN O17.5 -625PHI O19.5 -750KC O14.5 -550(+106) odds
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Sharp money likes the Packers today for some reason, will be an interesting one for sure.Comment -
I have it at:
DK's GB +3 Handle 33% Bets 35%
Circa GB +3.5 Handle 75% Bets 50%Comment -
That's Andy's post and the numbers I see are close to what BetMGM is showing and not close to 85%.
It's not like these numbers are accurate as of the kick off as anything could change from now 'til then.
Also, I see the opening line at -3.5 and it ticked down to -3.0 at the most on some books like DraftKings, so that's only 0.5 point move and not a full 1.0.
A lof of the books are still hanging -3.5, which means NO line move at all.Comment -
This is the one game I'm worried about as well, as the Lions looked terrible against the Bears in that second half.Comment -
I don't know if history repeats itself or not for the week 14 games, but in 2023 8 underdogs won SU out of 15 games.Comment -
These are the current ML odds at DraftKings, so all of them are lower than whichever book you made your wager except for the Bengals.
The payout odd at DraftKings for the same set of teams is +693 and I made a test bet to see what the cashout is. If the cashout amount drops to below 80% of the wagered amount, then the parlay is toast. If it stays above 80%, then you have a shot at winning the parlay.
DET Lions -166 Moneyline GB Packers DET Lions Dec 5, 2024, 8:15:00 PM
PIT Steelers -270 Moneyline CLE Browns PIT Steelers Dec 8, 2024, 1:00:00 PM
PHI Eagles -650 Moneyline CAR Panthers PHI Eagles Dec 8, 2024, 1:00:00 PM
MIA Dolphins -250 Moneyline NY Jets MIA Dolphins Dec 8, 2024, 1:00:00 PM
BUF Bills -170 Moneyline BUF Bills LA Rams Dec 8, 2024, 4:25:00 PM
CIN Bengals -245 Moneyline CIN Bengals DAL Cowboys Dec 9, 2024, 8:15:00 PMComment -
Yessir, I have money stuck on here from a bonus so I have to complete a rollover to cash it out. Once it's done I'll be converting over to draftkings solely. I love draftkings, the have great odds on the pts scored for nfl, whereas fanduel is decent but doesnt allow you to parlay same game pt totals and has worse odds on pts than dk typically.
$1300 difference is crazy.Comment -
Damn, idiot Dan Campbell must be giving you some heartache going for it on their 31.
Can he be any dumber?Comment -
About to head out to drive to place this wager:
CIN O17.5 -625
KC O13.5 -700
PIT O15.5 -800
PHI O19.5 -800
BUF O17.5 -535
LAC O9.5 -850
CLE O9.5 -700
Overall it pays +142Comment -
Lost the big parlay.
Down $1,977.48
Current bankroll is $2,634.37
i placed the bet on the pts parlay and won, as I didn’t include the bengals. But since I didn’t post the amount and all that I won’t include it.Comment -
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I feel so bad that you didn't win this parlay.
I tailed you so I lost too but I didn't bet as big as you as I bet only 1/2 of what you bet.
The way Buffalo was playing prior to yesterday's game, I would have thought that they were the last team for us to worry about them losing but the Rams were desperate for sure and it showed.
Right after that game, I walked down to the sportsbook at Borgata and unloaded on KC ML and won a decent amount. I cheated myself out of a couple of thousands dollars by not betting sooner as it climbed from -200 to -250 near the game time.
I could have driven to DraftKings at Resorts or Caesars to make my bet as their odds were less at -218 to -225, but I was just too lazy and made $900 to $1,000+ less. So stupid.
I didn't get any sleep for the last day or two from working or whatever, so I was just tired to drive around.Comment -
DJK,
I feel ya man I knew the Rams were desperate and at home but I didn’t think they had a shot in the world. Rams remind me of the Stoops Sooners, all offense and no defense. I didn’t not think they could get the job done against the Bills. Honestly, we were freerolling at that point because we technically could have hedged out and got 1k profit guaranteed, but I didn’t care as my pts parlay was hitting imo. I needed to make that big bet to clear my rollover so I can convert it all to DK this week.
I’ve been betting on Rams all year and going back to last year. This was the team I wish showed up when I made those bets lol
ofc when I bet against them I get the best possible versionComment -
Oh I was going to say we were freerolling because that Miami game was kind of a miracle. Don’t know how we ended up with time there to come back and tie to get to OT, after that Miami finish I was like this parlay must be hitting lolComment -
Odds of someone dropping the ball was against us. But yeah, sucks lol. Also had a pts parlay not hit, 17 of 19. The two that missed I don't understand why I added them to begin with lol.
This week will have these as my favs:
LAR 13.5, SF 16.5 KC 15.5 CIN 16.5, or 19.5 WASH 13.5 BAL 16.5 DAL 9.5, CAR 13.5 NYJ 12.5 MIA 13.5, HOU 13.5 DEN 13.5 BUF 19.5, DET 19.5 PIT 13.5, PHI 13.5 ARI 16.5 TB 13.5, LAC 13.5 GB 16.5, SEA 12.5 CHI 9.5, MIN 16.5 ATL 13.5, LV 9.5 Comment -
Will be placing this bet Sunday before games start, all are OVER these pt totals:
It'll be a parlay, around $1500 to win $7000, will post exact amount after it wins or loses. Bet will be between $1,500 to $1,800.DET 18.5 BUF 16.5 WASH 16.5 TB 13.5 GB 14.5 PHI 15.5 MIN 16.5 PIT 12.5 KC 15.5 SEA 13.5
My calculations suggest this parlay is hitting 61.8% of the time.Comment -
1700 to win 4009.51
KC O15.5
WASH O16.5
PIT O12.5
PHI O15.5
BUF O18.5
DET O18.5
+134Comment -
Cash it!!
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+2309.51
UP $332.03
Current bankroll is $4,943.81
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I've got my trial tomorrow, with the chances I might end up having to serve a week or two in jail. So, I may drive up today and get this bet in. Either way, these are my picks for this upcoming week:
It'll be a $1,500 bet to win $3,061.39BAL 16.5 -650 DET 18.5 -650 PHI 15.5 -700 MIN 15.5 -520 TB 16.5 -800 (+104) odds
odds may change slightly once I get there. GL this weekend fellas, gl to me at trial tomorrow.Comment -
pt totals are betting over those amountsComment -
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Ship it! Cleared them all before the 4th quarter!!
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Up $1,773.11Comment -
Why am I so dense and not tail your parlays?
So freaking stupid.
Gave up winning quite a bit not tailing you.
Keep up the good work.
The problem I have now is that as soon as I tail you, I'm sure I will get screwed. So sad...Comment -
Only two more weeks then I'll be silent until next year. The NFL is the only thing I bet on, wisely anyway. All over sports I'm just throwing shit on the wall.
I cashed out everything except my profits, and will be risking it all the next two weeks in an attempt to quadruple my winnings. I try and build these so that they have potential to be cleared before the 4th quarter even happens.
Last three weeks I also have built 15-19 team parlays, with payouts between 19x-45x (risking $100). All three weeks I've lost it due to one leg not hitting, and all three weeks, it was literally a missed XP, missed fg, or a fumble on the 1 yard line in red zone that cost me the entire parlay. I have a feeling I'm going to hit one of those before the season ends.Comment -
Odds are that this one hits 51.7% of the time. Not confirmed yet, waiting to see what games come up by Wednesday.KC O15.5 -520 BAL O16.5 -675 HOU O13.5 -380 SEA O16.5 -425 LAC O16.5 -425 PIT O12.5 -675 (+186) Comment -
No plays for today and tomorrow. Spending the day with my wife and kids, don’t like the limited prep time for the teams, plan to see some sloppiness. Have a feeling the bet wins but oh well.Comment
