Hate using the lock word, but....

[MonkeyF0cker]

Of course, however I'm predicting Pinny opens this as around ~-400 Wozniacki. No matter what, anyone making a significant punt on Oudin in this match is just burning money. It may be Wozniacki's first quarter final, too, but she's in another class and will not be dismissed by someone who plays a similar, but not as polished style as she does. The more experienced, talented, athletic, and smarter player advances, unless you just want to bet on Wozniacki not showing up, which I really don't think is very likely.

Burning money? How so? If fair value actually were ±400, she has no chance even though the market determines that she has a 20% probability of winning the match? And if I got Oudin at +420 (a 4% edge) and I wagered 0.9524% of my bankroll, I wouldn't have an expected growth of 0.0189%?

You act like a -400 favorite has never lost. Certainly, you've heard of higher probability favorites losing before...

[jayc88]

wozniacki is -226 @ pinnacle ,
fair line should be at least -400 , boys get your bets in now,
line will be -800 tomorrow!!!

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yikes.

[yisman]

I win.

[SBR Lou]

I win.

It's closing much higher than -226 at Pinnacle. We'll see if the public "drives the line down" on the 17 year old.

[yisman]

Lou, I predicted you would be nowhere close with your -400 line projection. Evidently, you don't know bookmakers very well.

[EaglesPhan36]

There's no way this is going to close all that much higher by match time IMO. With all the upsets this year, sharps, public, whomever will not spend big $ to back a -220 to -250 favorite without Slam experience. Especially on the WTA side and Lou should know this more than anyone else, high priced favorites cannot be trusted. Wozniacki has not been immune to flopping as a big favorite. Just my own opinion of course, but if we're talking value or whatever BS you want to label it - there is not much on Wozniacki over -200 for me and I think better than 50% of bettors would rather back a +200 underdog in this spot rather than dish out -250 in what I think is a 3 set match, which means if it all comes down to one set - the underdog gives you better bang for your buck.

[yisman]

whoa, I made Lou's sig.

There's no way this is going to close all that much higher by match time IMO. With all the upsets this year, sharps, public, whomever will not spend big $ to back a -220 to -250 favorite without Slam experience. Especially on the WTA side and Lou should know this more than anyone else, high priced favorites cannot be trusted. Wozniacki has not been immune to flopping as a big favorite. Just my own opinion of course, but if we're talking value or whatever BS you want to label it - there is not much on Wozniacki over -200 for me and I think better than 50% of bettors would rather back a +200 underdog in this spot rather than dish out -250 in what I think is a 3 set match, which means if it all comes down to one set - the underdog gives you better bang for your buck.

The oddsmakers apparently made a good call on the line, because it's going to close very close to where it opened.


The line is also about where it should be in my opinion, which is one of the reasons I'm not touching it.