Hate using the lock word, but....

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 08:42 PM

Phew, what a thriller. Wozniacki maintained her poise, even when Svetlana clearly doublefaulted in the tiebreak when the 2nd serve was out, impressive from the 19yr old youngster.

SamsNCharge99 · 09-07-09, 08:42 PM

winner

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Great call Lou. I was on Wozniacki myself

You gonna hammer if Wozniacki is -400 or less vs Oudin??

Congrats bud.

onthewhat · 09-07-09, 08:42 PM

jjgold · 09-07-09, 08:43 PM

Lou you had to fukkin die watching that match, close as can be

nice win

fsugolf · 09-07-09, 08:44 PM

winner winner

onthewhat · 09-07-09, 08:45 PM

Oudin vs. Wozniacki will be a great match.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 08:46 PM

Oudin all day in that one. I hope she's an underdog, but I'm thinking the books will have her as a slight favorite and the public (U.S.) will pound her.

exstatman · 09-07-09, 08:46 PM

Still have trouble when someone wins with a net of zero breaks. Two breakers does not necessarily mean the best player won.

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Lou you had to fukkin die watching that match, close as can be

nice win

Smoked about half a pack just watching that.

yisman · 09-07-09, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Regardless of who chokes here, the winner was a lucky pick. Both chicks have the mental strength of a wet paper sack.

Complete toss-up and I wasn't impressed with either of them.

Wozniacki did end up winning 2-6 7-6 7-6, so congrats to Loubert on the lucky win.

The rare match where both sides were bad picks.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 08:52 PM

Wozniacki is Lou's new Ivanovic by the way in case you boys hadn't noticed. At least he finally bailed on that nutcase.

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Oudin all day in that one. I hope she's an underdog, but I'm thinking the books will have her as a slight favorite and the public (U.S.) will pound her.

NO. No way. I'd be surprised if Wozniacki was less than -400.

You think a player that's ranked #70 in the world is going to be FAVORED over the #9 player in the world?

yisman · 09-07-09, 08:52 PM

I want to take Oudin in the next match, but as EaglesPhan said, the public will probably overvalue her.

She was a slight favorite against Petrova. You'll probably see something similar with Wozniacki.

Woz as a slight favorite would be my prediction for the opening line.

alias69 · 09-07-09, 08:55 PM

oudin is 17-4 in 3 sets this year.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

NO. No way. I'd be surprised if Wozniacki was less than -400. You think a player that's ranked #70 in the world is going to be FAVORED over the #9 player in the world?

Probably not, but she was almost favored over #10 Petrova when the lines were released. Your -400 is ridiculous Lou. Anything more than -150 would be ridiculous. I do think it will start out a little high like -150 or so to get the money train rolling on Oudin, but she is going to get 80% of the public money, guaranteed. By match time, it's a pick 'em or Oudin could be a slight favorite. That's my prediction.

yisman · 09-07-09, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

NO. No way. I'd be surprised if Wozniacki was less than -400.

I hope you're right, even though I know you won't be.

Lou, I'd bet you that Woz will not be <-400.

Not even -300.

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Probably not, but she was almost favored over #10 Petrova when the lines were released. Your -400 is ridiculous Lou. Anything more than -150 would be ridiculous. I do think it will start out a little high like -150 or so to get the money train rolling on Oudin, but she is going to get 80% of the public money, guaranteed.

I don't disagree that the general public that only follows Grand Slams will unload on her, but I'm hoping the tennis handicapping subforum doesn't make that mistake. I saw ESPN's poll where 53% of pollsters said Oudin is the best youngster under 20 playing today, that's ridiculous, she's nowhere near as accomplished as Wozniacki.

konck · 09-07-09, 08:58 PM

I was on woozie from Lou's picks what about this big fav next Lou you like either side?

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 08:59 PM

Wozniacki is still better on clay though. She pissed me off when she choked early in the French. ESPN polls? Please Lou. Those are as accurate as ESPN reporting.

ji03 · 09-07-09, 09:16 PM

The only reason she had that high of a mark on ESPN is because of how well she is doing at this Grand Slam.

yisman · 09-07-09, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I don't disagree that the general public that only follows Grand Slams will unload on her, but I'm hoping the tennis handicapping subforum doesn't make that mistake. I saw ESPN's poll where 53% of pollsters said Oudin is the best youngster under 20 playing today, that's ridiculous, she's nowhere near as accomplished as Wozniacki.

Accomplished != best

I do agree that Wozniacki would have to be considered better, but 'accomplished' and 'best' mean two different things.

"I don't disagree that the general public that only follows Grand Slams will unload on her..."

Then why did you say "NO. No way. I'd be surprised if Wozniacki was less than -400."?

If you thought the line would be at least -400, I suppose you'll be all over it when it opens at far less than that.

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Accomplished != best

I do agree that Wozniacki would have to be considered better, but 'accomplished' and 'best' mean two different things.

"I don't disagree that the general public that only follows Grand Slams will unload on her..."

Then why did you say "NO. No way. I'd be surprised if Wozniacki was less than -400."?

If you thought the line would be at least -400, I suppose you'll be all over it when it opens at far less than that.

Oddsmakers are in it to make money, not to appease the general public. They aren't going to overvalue Oudin as they know pro's will jump all over Wozniacki, they will be more than happy giving the public a nice juicy price on Oudin and taxing the sharps that may want to play the other side.

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 09:24 PM

No full time tennis bettor with a bankroll of more than a few dimes is going to lay a cent on Oudin, this is a horrible match up for Oudin, she'd have done better against Svetlana.

MonkeyF0cker · 09-07-09, 09:37 PM

That's a pretty stupid statement, Lou. As always, it depends on the price.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 09:37 PM

It's not a horrible match-up, it's just similar vs. similar. Oudin would probably match-up better with a choking Russian chick, but there's only so many of those available. Both like to keep the ball in play and let their opponents make errors. Neither one is going to hit an incredible amount of winners, but they both convert break chances pretty well. I'd expect it to play out nearly identical to Oudin's matches thus far. She may look completely outclassed for a set, win a tight set and then it ends in a 3rd set. I think at this stage, betting the # of games is smart if your book offers it.

yisman · 09-07-09, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Oudin would probably match-up better with a choking Russian chick, but there's only so many of those available.

Oddsmakers are in it to make money, not to appease the general public.

Well, of course they are. You're wrong about the line, though.

RogueScholar · 09-07-09, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Smoked about half a pack just watching that.

God was really looking out for me today because I got home at the tail-end of the third set and got to avoid all the nail-biting. I hate tiebreaks, but this one was nice

Great call, Lou.

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

That's a pretty stupid statement, Lou. As always, it depends on the price.

Of course, however I'm predicting Pinny opens this as around ~-400 Wozniacki. No matter what, anyone making a significant punt on Oudin in this match is just burning money. It may be Wozniacki's first quarter final, too, but she's in another class and will not be dismissed by someone who plays a similar, but not as polished style as she does. The more experienced, talented, athletic, and smarter player advances, unless you just want to bet on Wozniacki not showing up, which I really don't think is very likely.

InTheHole · 09-07-09, 10:08 PM

Lou is truly the Comeback Kid

yisman · 09-07-09, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Of course, however I'm predicting Pinny opens this as around ~-400 Wozniacki.

I wish you'd agree to bet me on this.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 10:12 PM

F*ck, I'll give you ten points on principle Lou if the line is within 50 cents of -400. What was Sharapova as a favorite against Oudin?

SBR Lou · 09-07-09, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

F*ck, I'll give you ten points on principle Lou if the line is within 50 cents of -400. What was Sharapova as a favorite against Oudin?

-495 at Pinnacle when I hung daily lines overnight.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-07-09, 10:17 PM

Well I guess we'll see what the oddsmakers think of Wozniacki. Obviously they had no respect for Petrova, since she was a pick 'em or slight dog to open I believe at #10. Wozniacki at #8.

yisman · 09-07-09, 10:41 PM

I'd be more than willing to pledge 10 points if I receive something in return when Lou is wrong about the line. It won't be within 50 cents of his projection.