Vegas Dave's Philosophy Pick Tracking / Get Rid Of Onthewhat Thread

[VegasDave]

DISCLAIMER: I know that this is 150% a waste of time, because onthewhat's word isn't worth anything, so him giving his word that he will leave forever if I have a winning season doesn't actually mean anything. If I have a winning season, he will stick around, everyone will give him shit for not keeping his word, and 20,000 "NICKAYs" and "FISHYs" and "Vegas Dave is fat" and other mindless dribble posts later, everyone will forget about this.

That said...

Onthewhat, do you agree to the following?

You will leave SBR forever if I have a winning season on my NFL philosophy picks, which I will be tracking all over the place on the forum but will always track in this thread.

Rules (For the sake of this agreement):

1. I will only make against the spread picks. No moneylines so I can't "take a shot" late.*

*The only exception I would like is if the ML is in the -150 to +150 range, sometimes I'd like to take the ML instead of say giving or receiving 1 to 3 points. But you can make the call on this one.

2. Every pick will be to win 1.

This way I can't "chase" or put lots of units on a game later in the season if I'm deep in the hole.

3. I will use numbers/spreads that are readily available at multiple books on sbrodds.com at the time that I post my play.

4. Any philosophy pick I make anywhere on the site I will also make here.

So if say after Week 4 I am 4-2 +1.80 units, I will not just quit making posts. I will continue to do so all regular season long.

Is this agreeable with you? Like I said, I know you aren't going anywhere, but we can at least pretend you are a man of your word for fun.

[onthewhat]

Looks good

Need a minumum number of plays, how many did you make the past few years for reference?

[VegasDave]

Past few years... 2005 (41), 2006 (48), 2007 (23), 2008 (36).

30 work for you?

[onthewhat]

Looks like you averaged 37 over the past 4 years

How about 32 minimum plays

[VegasDave]

32 sounds good.

I also again promise not to stop just because I'm ahead or anything. I'll be doing my "stupid newsletter that no one reads" all year, and if I hit the 32 mark in Week 13 I'm still going to be posting my philosophy picks up to week 17.

[onthewhat]

You wont be up so I don't really care

[onthewhat]

By the way - I will be fading your picks with real money to profit off of your fall back down to earth.

[onthewhat]

Also, after I win, I want a video from you saying that Nicky and I are right that you cant win handicapping games, and you can't complain about me hassling you on the forum.

That's my stipulation.

[Justin7]

I'd also suggest that it "ends" at 32. Less gamey that way.

[durito]

Nicky and I are right that you cant win handicapping games.

[Chi_archie]

Dave what are your philosophy pick records on those picks the last 4 years?

[flyingillini]

Waste of time, Onthewhat won't leave the site, ever.

[SexyMit]

They hit at an alarming rate. I use the same things he does with the philosophy picks and if you stick to them you will make lots of money guaranteed

[onthewhat]

He posts 30 plays a year. Take a statistics course son.

[Chi_archie]

i'm interested in his record after 148 picks....

[pavyracer]

The only way this will work is if VD makes a deposit at a book and bets his own money on the picks. It's not the same as keeping a journal of your imaginary picks. If he loses he won't lose any money. A real capper is the one who bets real money. All others are tout wannabees.

[Squirrel]

You wont be up so I'll never leave this forum because then I wont be able to publicly suck Nickys balls so I don't really care

Fixed that for you pal.

[flyingillini]

Squirrel hahah

[VegasDave]

Dave what are your philosophy pick records on those picks the last 4 years?

2005: 27 - 13 - 1 (.675)
2006: 24 - 22 - 2 (.522)
2007: 14 - 7 - 2 (.667)
2008: 25 - 11 - 0 (.694)

Overall: 90 - 53 - 5 (.629)

Also, after I win, I want a video from you saying that Nicky and I are right that you cant win handicapping games, and you can't complain about me hassling you on the forum.

That's my stipulation.

1. I already made that video last year; http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-coinflip.html

2. It IS http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...62-creepy.html the way you "hassle" me. It isn't going to be any less creepy or pathetic after this season.

This is a declarative statement: "I will leave SBR if Vegas Dave has a winning NFL season". You don't add stipulations to a declarative statement. You do what you declare. I'm not going to agree to any of your stipulations because I literally have no belief whatsoever that you will actually hold up your end of the deal.

If you want something in return (other than the load of money you will be making fading me), just go ahead and admit you won't be leaving the forum now. I'm not staking my word which I actually value against yours (I'll be at the bash, I'm out SBR, etc).

[onthewhat]

Fix my signature. Willie or someone blocked it from showing up I guess.

Edit: Nevermind, I guess it just doesn't show up on mobile posts.

[VegasDave]

The only way this will work is if VD makes a deposit at a book and bets his own money on the picks. It's not the same as keeping a journal of your imaginary picks. If he loses he won't lose any money. A real capper is the one who bets real money. All others are tout wannabees.

I will be betting my picks this year. I don't know why the fact that I didn't have any money to bet last year was such a monumentally difficult concept to understand.

If you choose not to believe me, as I'm sure many of you will, I don't really care. You think I enjoyed hitting over 60% and getting nothing out of it? It makes no sense to me.

[MexicanStallion]

That is a strong showing Dave. Good luck this season.

[Chi_archie]

90-53... that's gotta be At Least 2 standard deviations above a coin toss

[onthewhat]

I am 100% sure VD won't win money if he is betting his picks. He will second guess himself frequently and end up burried.

Remember, over 50% does not = winning. You can go 52% and still be a loser...

[onthewhat]

90-53... that's gotta be At Least 2 standard deviations above a coin toss

This guy is gonna take a hard fall down to Earth.

[fsugolf]

sticky please

[VegasDave]

sticky please

No need. It'll be bumped by me every week when I make my plays, and even more regularly by onthewhat with each losing pick.

[Chi_archie]

63% for 4 years could make you a millionare though

[SamsNCharge99]

good luck Dave

[diogee]

lol @ the disclaimer...seems you know OTW won't leave as long as Nickay is around.

[VegasDave]

63% for 4 years could make you a millionare though

I'm STILL skeptical. I mean 143 picks is still a really small sample size. I may very well be in for four straight losing seasons.

That said, I hope the success continues. Everything else I do I pick 50-51% (with the exception of this particularly bad baseball season), but these keep on rolling. Other than onthewhat and maybe Nicky, I hope most people will be rooting for me and everyone else to have a profitable 2009 season in foots

[fsugolf]

maybe they could start their own gay porn forum

[SexyMit]

Last yr you picked games that lost that I wouldn't have picked... Towards the end of the yr you were doing 3-4 a week instead of maybe 1 or 2. But however GL to you this year.

[CaneDawg]

good luck dave

things change when it is real money....your own money

[pavyracer]

I will be betting my picks this year. I don't know why the fact that I didn't have any money to bet last year was such a monumentally difficult concept to understand.

If you choose not to believe me, as I'm sure many of you will, I don't really care. You think I enjoyed hitting over 60% and getting nothing out of it? It makes no sense to me.

Trust me if you have 5 nickles on each game every week and you start 2-3 or 1-4 it changes the whole psychology and your mental state. You will not understand unless you bet real money with your picks.