EUROBASKET 2009 has arrived!

[MilfDriller]

Gotta love it.


Wiky site:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EuroBasket_2009

Official site:

http://www.eurobasket2009.org/en/default.asp

15 teams are already in for the September 7 start. However, from what I understand there will be 45 teams fighting for the 16th and final spot.... This is one of the most ridiculous, convoluted tournament set-ups I've ever seen... but it will provide many games from qualification on into the final.

Quick look at some lines for the Wednesday qualifier tip-offs:


Eurobasket 2009 - Men Baloncesto - Mié 8/5

JuegoHándicapLínea de dineroTotal puntosMás Mié 8/53551Hungría-4 -105-170MÁS DE 148 -103
09:00 AM3552Ucrania+4 -105+153MENOS DE 148 -107 Mié 8/53553Estonia+3.5 -102+141MÁS DE 142.5 -103
09:00 AM3554República Checa-3.5 -108-156MENOS DE 142.5 -107 Mié 8/53555Italia-4.5 +100-185MÁS DE 147 -104
11:00 AM3556Francia+4.5 -110+166MENOS DE 147 -106 Mié 8/53557Portugal-1 -105-110MÁS DE 150 -105
12:30 PM3558Bosnia Herzegovina+1 -105+100MENOS DE 150 -105

[MilfDriller]

that fit perfectly, no? nice

[Shortstop]

Go get 'em Driller!

[MilfDriller]

Yeah, this will be some fun shit, bro. FIBA lines and Olympic bball lines are always loose.

Likely be staying away from the FIBA Africa and Asia championships.... unless there are some crazy totals there.

[jjgold]

Never followed this stuff or bet it, maybe will follow Milfers picks


gl

[RogueJuror]

Milfy get a spreadsheet going !

[MilfDriller]

nice how they juxtapose 2008 results w/ results from yest. printed out most everything from their site... yet still very little clarity regarding the qualification segment

Sat 8/81301Bosnia Herzegovina-8 -109-379OVER 144.5 -10511:15 AM1302Belgium+8 -101+329UNDER 144.5 -105Sat 8/81303Czech Republic-5.5 -105-225OVER 151.5 -10511:30 AM1304Hungary+5.5 -105+201UNDER 151.5 -105Sat 8/81305France-16 -105OVER 149.5 -10511:00 AM1306Finland+16 -105UNDER 149.5 -105Sat 8/81307Ukraine-5 +101-204OVER 145.5 -11508:00 AM1308Estonia+5 -111+183UNDER 145.5 +104

Bosnia game has potential for lots of bombs

[rm18]

lol France did not make top 15

[MilfDriller]

yeah, how Bulgaria, Macedonia and Israel are in before France doesn't make much sense.

not sure of how it all is set up, really. maybe the nba players were not available during classification... b/c Parker and other French NBA'ers are on the team.

Plus you've got legit NBA'ers across the board on these teams

[MilfDriller]

Alright, did a little homework.

Four games are complete and there are , if I am correct, 23 more remaining until the one final team classifies out of the 10 vying for the spot out of qualification.

It's too early to make an educated play, but a strong lean is available for Sat's games.

This is the following:

Bosnia/Belgium UNDER 144.5 (-105)

(Sat, 8/8, 11:15am PST)

The theory is that Bosnia will not top 79 pts and Belg will stay under 65 pts. Those are max. Maybe 71-60 final... but can't really say. Just smells like an under. See what happens.

[flyingillini]

I like to bet on basketball from Israel, a lot of former Illini are in that league over there.

[MilfDriller]

line now at 144, -108. I can sense this one.. but won't play it. too early

[MilfDriller]

this is after the fact (tied in 3Q), but Estonia did look fair at +5.5

line now at 143 at Pinny, -107

[MilfDriller]

08 11 11 09
15 11 05 09

19 20 xx xx
26 14 xx xx

[fiveteamer]

LOL, why is Israel in European competitions. How did they pull that off?

[pavyracer]

LOL, why is Israel in European competitions. How did they pull that off?

No Arab country has any diplomatic relations with Israel so they wouldn't play in Asia. If they did they would have to spend billions of dollars to protect them if they visited Damascus, Beirut or Cairo to play a game.

[MilfDriller]

they blasted the total. with 3 days between each game.... weird situation. something will come up, tho.

i'll have info later

[MilfDriller]

1st Play:

CZE/UKR Under 150.0


Looking at 65-70 at HT ... leaving 85-80 available in the 2half. I think Ukraine will finish in the 60's ... absolute max of 69. Estimate 64. So long as Czech doesn't hit more than 80, this should hit.

Czech absolute max of 83.. gives worst-case scenario of 66 for Ukraine. But I don't think Czech will hit 80.

Game has potential for periods of 2 and 3 minute droughts throughout the game to help the under.

[MilfDriller]

Czech game tips in about 7 minutes


Italy/Fin game goes over ... both teams 2-0 Over, Italy 0-2 ATS, Fin 2-0 ATS

Est/Hung game goes under ..... Est 3-0 Under

[MilfDriller]

line at 149, 148.5

[MilfDriller]

Ukraine scored exactly 64 pts. Right on the button. 71-64 final.

Czech 3-0 Under, Ukraine 2-1 Under.... combined 5-1 Under.

Chicken dinna.

[MilfDriller]

Well, there might be a decent shot coming up here for the next series of games on the 14th.

Cze 3-0 Under
Est 3-0 Under

Cze has been avg'ing 13 pts under the line for their games.

142.5 , 151.5 , 150.0

(134) , (136) , (135)

The total of 142.5 was for the Cze/Est game they played on the 5th of Aug. They put in 41 pts in the 4Q in that game... so they only had 93 pts in that game gonig into the 4Q. Est had 42 pts going into that 4Q.

In these int'l games they really haven't been adjusting the totals too much... even when it's clear things are going in a certain direction. Don't know why.... but I imagine they'll open up the Cze/Est game somewhere near 140.5.. the lowest I think they'll put it at is 139.0.

[head_strong]

Awesome.....

[MilfDriller]

Same old story. They make zero adjustments whatsoever.

6 games played between these teams (or essentially 5 since they played one another on the 5th) and not one of them has even hit 140 pts. Combined 6-0 to the under and have seen extended droughts in their games.

2nd Play:

CZE/EST Under 142.5 (-117)

[rake922]

[MilfDriller]

line now at 140.0 -111

[MilfDriller]

real quick about these games tomorrow

Cze/Est sitting on 140.0

France is a -7.5 fave over Italy.... doesn't look right... but Italy can't be trusted. can't touch

Ukraine is a -5.0 fave over Hungry after getting totally blasted by Hungary as a, what was it, -3.5 fave on the 5th I believe it was... Ukraine has fallen behind to huge deficits early..... this line makes no sense whatsoever.

[MilfDriller]

Ukraine is getting blasted at HT. Down by 12 pts... and they can't score.

They lost the last meeting by 24 pts... and were a 5 pt fave for this new game? It made no sense and was ridiculously obvious. That should have been a freebie.

Game time for the CZE Under.

[MilfDriller]

80-54 FT. chicken dinner


And what a turnaround by the Ukraine.... the zookeeper opened the cage b/c they blasted Hungary in the 2half and covered their spread

[MilfDriller]

upon going over the spread and totals for the first four games of the pre-qual... there isn't a huge gap like in the recent fiba tourneys... that's not good.

anyways, Estonia has a match with the Ukraine on the 17th... and I think they'll puff up the total due to the overs in the 2 HUN/UKR games.... with Estonia being 4-0 to the under and these being two Slavic teams.. it might be the one last chance in qualies to get a good bet

[MilfDriller]

and here we go...

JuegoHándicapLínea de dineroTotal puntosMás Lun 8/171325Bélgica-3.5 -105
MÁS DE 149 -105
11:00 AM1326Bosnia Herzegovina+3.5 -105
MENOS DE 149 -105 Lun 8/171327Estonia-4.5 +102
MÁS DE 140.5 -105
10:00 AM1328Ucrania+4.5 -113
MENOS DE 140.5 -105 Lun 8/171329Finlandia+8.5 -105
MÁS DE 149 -108
10:00 AM1330Francia-8.5 -105
MENOS DE 149 -102 Lun 8/171331Hungría-4.5 -105
MÁS DE 146.5 -105
09:00 AM1332República Checa+4.5 -105
MENOS DE 146.5 -105

[MilfDriller]

Lun 8/171325Bélgica-3.5 -105
MÁS DE 149 -105
11:00 AM1326Bosnia Herzegovina+3.5 -105
MENOS DE 149 -105 Lun 8/171327Estonia-4.5 +102
MÁS DE 140.5 -105
10:00 AM1328Ucrania+4.5 -113
MENOS DE 140.5 -105 Lun 8/171329Finlandia+8.5 -105
MÁS DE 149 -108
10:00 AM1330Francia-8.5 -105
MENOS DE 149 -102 Lun 8/171331Hungría-4.5 -105
MÁS DE 146.5 -105
09:00 AM1332República Checa+4.5 -105
MENOS DE 146.5 -105

[MilfDriller]

lol



Bélgica-3.5 -105
MÁS DE 149 -105


Bosnia Herzegovina+3.5 -105
MENOS DE 149 -105

[MilfDriller]

Estonia/Ukraine 140.5

that's the only real line that matters.

[MilfDriller]

Estonia was 2/18 from 3-ball land in their last game. Ukraine is 2-2 on the O/U, but the 2 overs were from both their games w/ Hungary... That this is a home game for Estonia bodes well for the under and will likely keep UKR's pts down.

Estonia was 5/29 from 3-ball land in the last game between the 2 (absolutely atrocious)... and even tho these teams dropped 45 pts in the 1st quarter... they still went 10 pts under the total.

...