Lets do a little horse racing...July 19 night

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  • curious
    Restricted User
    • 07-20-07
    • 9093

    #71
    Originally posted by Imgoinhungry
    Got it. Good point.

    Do you know those numbers? Are there stats on it, or did you take the time to track it? That's a lot of work.

    I might start tracking that to stay away from the tracks where those odds dont hit all that often.
    you can get those numbers for any track. there are software programs that will give them to you. you'll hve to pay for the programs and pay for the data.

    I just looked at all races at all tracks over the last 10 years. I didn't break it down by track.
    Comment
    • Imgoinhungry
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-31-09
      • 264

      #72
      Thanks for the info. I think it is an important thing to consider, especially given all the surface changes in the last few years.
      Comment
      • curious
        Restricted User
        • 07-20-07
        • 9093

        #73
        Originally posted by Imgoinhungry
        Thanks for the info. I think it is an important thing to consider, especially given all the surface changes in the last few years.
        I keep a spreadsheet of all the races every day and my picks and how they turned out. Every couple of weeks I'll review it and see if there are any tracks that are not returning good results. Right now I dont have enough data.
        Comment
        • UltimateSelector
          Restricted User
          • 01-28-08
          • 15926

          #74
          Originally posted by UltimateSelector
          .
          .
          Los Alamitos 7th Race ... #4 at 9-2 .. & .. #3 at 6-1
          .
          Ran 2nd on the #4 .. Paid .. $3.60
          Comment
          • UltimateSelector
            Restricted User
            • 01-28-08
            • 15926

            #75
            Originally posted by curious
            The majority of the winnings come from the Show. After that is the Place, only a small % of the picks Win straight up.
            .
            There are much better ways to make your wagers much more efficient powerful.
            You can either play the Vertical or the Horizontal. I also like to Dutch wager as well! I have well over 750,000 Races in my databases to back test with.

            I left you a comment in your other thread ...



            If you truly are wagering this kind of money then read what I posted & take a look see ride & contact me & we can do something together, only if you are serious.

            I would find it interesting if you were to do your complete stats at the end of tonight showing your Profits & Losses. I use this format if you want to use please feel free to fill in the blanks & use it .. Record keeping is very valuable to let you know how you are doing & where you stand in making improvements & whatnot!

            .
            Today's Re-Cap!



            Races Played = 86

            # of Horses Played = 103



            Wins = 27_______31%


            Place = 42_______49%


            Show = 49_______57%



            Overall Win Profits are Up! + $25.30 ... (per $2.00)

            Overall Place Profits are Down (-) $28.30 ... (per $2.00)



            My 5 Highest payoffs today: $35.80 - 15.40 - 13.40 - 12.20 - 12.00
            Comment
            • curious
              Restricted User
              • 07-20-07
              • 9093

              #76
              The biggest problem that I am running into is to get the damm toteboard information LIVE. Not pseudo live, not sort of live, but LIVE. ESPN says it is live, but it is not, Youbet says it is live but it is not.

              Like in Los Alamitos Race 7. #6 showed as the play at 1 MTP. I placed the bet. Then refreshed the screen. #6's odds then moved from 9-1 to 35-1. #5 then became the play. Of course #6 didn't hit the board and #5 Showed.

              The data that ESPN and Youbet are giving is delayed until the track is taking no more bets then they update it all at once.

              I don't think TVG is real time live either.

              Los Alamitos Race 7 was an example of a super favorite being in the race. The weighted exacta paid 1-1. I didn't have time to post that because it is a mess. You have to do #2 / all the other entrants at different amounts so that the payoff is the same no matter who Places.

              The results will improve somewhat if I can get a source for REALLY live toteboard data.
              Comment
              • UltimateSelector
                Restricted User
                • 01-28-08
                • 15926

                #77
                .
                I have the Best & most up to date data you can get! I refresh my program to pull iit in every 8 sec. The money is updated every 30 sec with my feed. What you are talking about & using is not good. When I put this all together 8 years ago I re-searched it to no end & did many comparisons to get the best one. I have to cause it's all I do & I use nothing else to aid me in my cappin but the money in the pools! You need better & quicker updating from the pool feed!
                Comment
                • sportscash
                  Restricted User
                  • 01-16-09
                  • 2894

                  #78
                  Australia track b race 3 #5
                  Comment
                  • UltimateSelector
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-28-08
                    • 15926

                    #79
                    .
                    .
                    Los Alamitos 8th Race ... #6 at 1-2


                    All You want here on this horse!
                    Comment
                    • curious
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-20-07
                      • 9093

                      #80
                      Originally posted by UltimateSelector
                      .
                      There are much better ways to make your wagers much more efficient powerful.
                      You can either play the Vertical or the Horizontal. I also like to Dutch wager as well! I have well over 750,000 Races in my databases to back test with.
                      I dont know what Vertical or Horizontal mean. Maybe you can take some of my picks tonight and give me some examples of the ways to make the wagers more efficient.
                      I'll read it when I get a chance


                      If you truly are wagering this kind of money then read what I posted & take a look see ride & contact me & we can do something together, only if you are serious.
                      I am wagering that kind of money and I am serious. I will read the post and contact you.

                      I would find it interesting if you were to do your complete stats at the end of tonight showing your Profits & Losses. I use this format if you want to use please feel free to fill in the blanks & use it .. Record keeping is very valuable to let you know how you are doing & where you stand in making improvements & whatnot!
                      I will do a tally of the results when I get a chance.
                      Comment
                      • curious
                        Restricted User
                        • 07-20-07
                        • 9093

                        #81
                        Los Alamitos Race 8

                        Los Alamitos Race 8 #4 $20 $40 $80 WPS
                        Comment
                        • UltimateSelector
                          Restricted User
                          • 01-28-08
                          • 15926

                          #82
                          Originally posted by curious
                          Los Alamitos Race 8 #4 $20 $40 $80 WPS
                          .
                          There was no SHOW wagering in this Race!
                          Comment
                          • UltimateSelector
                            Restricted User
                            • 01-28-08
                            • 15926

                            #83
                            Originally posted by UltimateSelector
                            .
                            .
                            Los Alamitos 8th Race ... #6 at 1-2


                            All You want here on this horse!
                            Easy Wire to Wire Winner! on the #10 ...Pays ... $2.80 - 2.20
                            Comment
                            • UltimateSelector
                              Restricted User
                              • 01-28-08
                              • 15926

                              #84
                              Originally posted by curious
                              I dont know what Vertical or Horizontal mean. Maybe you can take some of my picks tonight and give me some examples of the ways to make the wagers more efficient.
                              I'll read it when I get a chance


                              I am wagering that kind of money and I am serious. I will read the post and contact you.


                              I will do a tally of the results when I get a chance.
                              .
                              Ok it all good & sounds good. Please take your time to go over it all & think about it & then just give me a E-mail or PM & we can then discuss some finer things of the SPORT of KINGS!
                              Comment
                              • curious
                                Restricted User
                                • 07-20-07
                                • 9093

                                #85
                                Originally posted by UltimateSelector
                                .
                                There was no SHOW wagering in this Race!
                                i found that out when the wager was rejected. i made the post first
                                Comment
                                • sportscash
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 01-16-09
                                  • 2894

                                  #86
                                  australia track a race 4 #2
                                  Comment
                                  • UltimateSelector
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 01-28-08
                                    • 15926

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by UltimateSelector
                                    Easy Wire to Wire Winner! ...Pays ... $2.80 - 2.20
                                    Easy Wire to Wire Winner! ...Pays ... $2.80 - 2.20

                                    *Corrected ...
                                    Comment
                                    • curious
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 07-20-07
                                      • 9093

                                      #88
                                      Los Alamitos Race 9

                                      #5 $20 $40 $80 wps
                                      Comment
                                      • UltimateSelector
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 01-28-08
                                        • 15926

                                        #89
                                        .
                                        .
                                        Los Alamitos 9th Race ... #4 at 1-1 .. & .. #5 at 9-1
                                        Comment
                                        • UltimateSelector
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 01-28-08
                                          • 15926

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by UltimateSelector
                                          .
                                          .
                                          Los Alamitos 9th Race ... #4 at 1-1 .. & .. #5 at 9-1
                                          Wire on the #4 ...Pays ... $4.20 - 2.80


                                          Ran 2nd on the #5 ... $5.20
                                          Comment
                                          • MainEventOrBust
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 07-16-09
                                            • 51

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by curious
                                            The majority of the winnings come from the Show. After that is the Place, only a small % of the picks Win straight up.

                                            Would a modified betting quotient of 1XP and 2XS make more sense then, and drop the win bet altogether? Even if the win is slightly profitable in the long haul, there have to be huge droughts before an 8 to 1 connects due to simple variance.
                                            Comment
                                            • curious
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 07-20-07
                                              • 9093

                                              #92
                                              Summary

                                              The wagers are $20 $40 $80 WPS. The amounts shows in "Paid...." below reflect deducting the $20 for the Win bet on a Place payoff and the $60 for the Win and Place bet on a Show payoff.

                                              All races were bet $20 $40 $80 WPS.

                                              Number of Races = 46 Average off odds all races = 12 - 1
                                              Number of Races WPS = 19
                                              % of races WPS = 41%
                                              Number of Races pick hit the board = 24 (includes 4th place for superfecta wagering)
                                              % of Races that hit the board = 52.17%
                                              Number of Wins = 3 6.52% Paid $1,406 (includes place & show payoff)
                                              Number of Place = 9 19.57% Paid $2,914 (includes show payoff)
                                              Number of Show = 7 15.22% Paid $1,076
                                              Number of 4th = 5 10.87% No wagers/still testing
                                              Total Payoffs = $5,396
                                              Losses = 27@$140 per race = -$3,780
                                              Net Profit = $1,616
                                              Comment
                                              • curious
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 07-20-07
                                                • 9093

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by MainEventOrBust
                                                Would a modified betting quotient of 1XP and 2XS make more sense then, and drop the win bet altogether? Even if the win is slightly profitable in the long haul, there have to be huge droughts before an 8 to 1 connects due to simple variance.
                                                I have run the stats on this several times, the Win always shows a slight profit, I guess that is due to the average off odds being so high. Tonight I had 3 wins in 46 races. Those 3 wins paid $510, the 43 races that did not Win, cost $860. So, that would be a slight improvement. I usually get more than 3 wins in 43 races, so usually the win column shows a slight profit.

                                                Your point about variance is well taken. Controlling variance is important in this. I'll look at it again from that angle instead of just overall +-$.
                                                Comment
                                                • curious
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 07-20-07
                                                  • 9093

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by UltimateSelector
                                                  .
                                                  I have the Best & most up to date data you can get! I refresh my program to pull iit in every 8 sec. The money is updated every 30 sec with my feed. What you are talking about & using is not good. When I put this all together 8 years ago I re-searched it to no end & did many comparisons to get the best one. I have to cause it's all I do & I use nothing else to aid me in my cappin but the money in the pools! You need better & quicker updating from the pool feed!
                                                  I found your website and sent you an email. Write me back at my email address so we can see how we can work together, please. Thanks.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • joeyp1222
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 01-01-09
                                                    • 5186

                                                    #95
                                                    Hello curious, i tryed to pm you but it says you are not accepting messages


                                                    contact me please
                                                    Comment
                                                    • joeyp1222
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 01-01-09
                                                      • 5186

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by joeyp1222
                                                      hello curious, i tryed to pm you but it says you are not accepting messages


                                                      contact me please
                                                      or send me your email addy
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Imgoinhungry
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 03-31-09
                                                        • 264

                                                        #97
                                                        You guys are sick with your data! I love it. Well done.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • themajormt
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-30-08
                                                          • 3964

                                                          #98
                                                          Ditto... Nice work guys...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • curious
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 07-20-07
                                                            • 9093

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by joeyp1222
                                                            Hello curious, i tryed to pm you but it says you are not accepting messages


                                                            contact me please
                                                            SBR took my PMs away because they won't let people stand up to tacomax and the rest of the man boy love association when being bullied by them.

                                                            My email address is i_bee_curious@yahoo.com
                                                            Comment
                                                            • joeyp1222
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-01-09
                                                              • 5186

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by curious
                                                              sbr took my pms away because they won't let people stand up to tacomax and the rest of the man boy love association when being bullied by them.

                                                              My email address is i_bee_curious@yahoo.com


                                                              email has been sent
                                                              Comment
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