Math in gambling

[bettingman6]

those numbers are crazy high,
advanced bettors (modelers, math nerds, I say 1% of total advanced bettors win long term
non-math nerds non-modelers win about .1% win long term

most people count a long term winner as someone who wins over like 1000 games and that is super super low to call someone skilled.
1000 records leave tons of space for survivorship bias.

I usually define long term as 1000 bets. Although that might depend on how much you're beating the vig by. A guy who's 524-476 after 1000 bets might not actually beat the vig long term. A guy who's 550-450 or better probably will.

Anyway, betting exchange services have reported that about 3% of their clients win long-term. (Not sure what they define long-term as.) However, that might be somewhat skewed because some people use betting exchange services precisely because they win long-term.

[Carborundum]

arbing now is like having a spoon you can buy for a $1 and sell for $2 its easy but in reality not enough people buying $2 dollar spoons

I believe people can win by beating the line only long term and especially if we are talking max limits, this is the only way and you need max limits to make enough money to feed the kids.

anyone that says the dont beat the line and is a long term winner is probably survivorship bias

you say 1% win long term sure, first off 90% of that 1% is survivorship bias and the remaining 10%, 9% beat the line and 1% have some edge somehow probably line bias and can recognize it, remember Bradley Cooper in limitless on the stocks, its something like that the 1% who beat the game without beating the line

yes. i think sportsbooks say that 1 to 2% of their customers win. some of them maybe because of luck, some maybe because of bonuses, some because they have true skill.

1% is a good enough number. you have to have consider yourself pretty intelligent if you think you are going to be smarter than 99% of all gamblers. obviously, everyone gives themselves credit when they win. that is why people keep gambling even when they lose.

to be a good gambler, you have to just like to gamble and spend hours and hours passing the time doing it and like doing it whether you win or lose. these are the people that win in the long term.

the people that win like the game. the people that lose like the rush.

[danshan11]

arbing now is like having a spoon you can buy for a $1 and sell for $2 its easy but in reality not enough people buying $2 dollar spoons

I believe people can win by beating the line only long term and especially if we are talking max limits, this is the only way and you need max limits to make enough money to feed the kids.

anyone that says the dont beat the line and is a long term winner is probably survivorship bias

you say 1% win long term sure, first off 90% of that 1% is survivorship bias and the remaining 10%, 9% beat the line and 1% have some edge somehow probably line bias and can recognize it, remember Bradley Cooper in limitless on the stocks, its something like that the 1% who beat the game without beating the line

[Sam Odom]

...you can sit at a computer and just bet lines that are off and have a good chance of winning. but you have to put your money in all of the sportsbooks and sit around and look at every line in every sport. that is very tedious for most people.

There was a time a guy could make a living (not get rich) doing that ^

But it was more about Scalping than straight betting slightly off #s

Almost impossible to do today

[Carborundum]

@Carborundum and you can win all weeks and months with these math strategies? I mean if you use them in a long period do you have a chance of gaining some money?

if you have a successful strategy based on math or you just use your own knowledge of sports, it is possible to win. 1% of people can do it. but you have to have something that is all your own. that is the trick.

knowing math will help. you can sit at a computer and just bet lines that are off and have a good chance of winning. but you have to put your money in all of the sportsbooks and sit around and look at every line in every sport. that is very tedious for most people.

you can try to use sports statistics with a computer model you create on your own and adjust the statistics and come up with a score and bet on games that your score differs with the line. this is extremely hard to do. but some can do it and a lot of people like to try to do it.

or you can do what almost everyone does and bet on your favorite sports and games you are interested in. you will occasionally probably be right when you win. the trick is knowing when you are actually right and when you are just guessing.

you can win with gambling with no math at all and you can lose at gambling with math a rocket scientist would love.

that is what keeps people gambling. but no, you cannot learn a lot of math and win at gambling. it takes some kind of insight and that is hard to come by.

the reason people like to bet sports is there is a true outcome. with poker and other gambling, you are just outguessing people on random probability. with sports, the best team usually wins so there is a chance to win above pure randomness. but there are so many smart people trying that the actual results are basically random. but the opportunity is there.

[wolly]

@Carborundum and you can win all weeks and months with these math strategies? I mean if you use them in a long period do you have a chance of gaining some money?

[JIBBBY]

This is a thread that sharps will not read

Sharps don't read or post... They lay back in the cyber shadows of SBR. They never post pending but are always logging in and collecting those 12 bet points daily.

I think those sharps should banned to be honest. They don't contribute and only clog up the forum contests..

[Sam Odom]

Winning Gamblers have that 'Feel' -- cannot learn that in a math class

[Carborundum]

And all of these will give you let's say 80% or 90% chances of winning?

no, most of the math involved in gambling is interpretation of the results and not being fooled by randomness. to win, you must have an edge. to have an edge, you have to bet with people dumber than you or be better at betting than almost everyone. even a rocket scientist cannot win at gambling with the math. gamblers are more clever than they are smart. you have to figure out a way to win and that way is unique to every gambler.

[wolly]

So how many times do these math strategies work? 1 week,1 month,1 year?

[danshan11]

There is a reason, a numbers guy has to keep his brain in a mode of logic and doesn't have time for a lot of emotional BS to interfere with his concentration.

not true, they are just jerks, I know a few good math guys and they are not jerks, you dont have to be a jerk to be good at math!

[Darkside Magick]

Ganchrow is one of the best knowing the math in gambling...

Even he could not beat'em so he joined them

The problem he had was he did extras that was not in certain theorems and lost alot Example: using parlays in Kelly Criterion!!!!

[danshan11]

Basically we’re all fcked, even the mathers.

of course, they dont have huge cities in the desert because they just give money away.

[Biff41]

85% of the Numbers Guys are arrogant to a fault... that is their downfall

There is a reason, a numbers guy has to keep his brain in a mode of logic and doesn't have time for a lot of emotional BS to interfere with his concentration.

[danshan11]

This is a thread that sharps will not read

I was wondering why I was reading this, now I know, I dont have the NERF logo for nothing. I am as sharp as Nerf Football!

[wolly]

kelly criterion
regression
data mining error
standard deviation
martingale

And all of these will give you let's say 80% or 90% chances of winning?

[jjgold]

This is a thread that sharps will not read

[Sam Odom]

85% of the Numbers Guys are arrogant to a fault... that is their downfall

[Cuse0323]

for most they can build the nearly identical results of Pinnacles model. the problem is they add juice, how can you overcome that? you have to build a model that is more efficient than the closing line by enough to cover the margin, its that simple, yeah that simple!!!!

Basically we’re all fcked, even the mathers.

[danshan11]

Ganchrow is one of the best knowing the math in gambling...

Even he could not beat'em so he joined them

for most they can build the nearly identical results of Pinnacles model. the problem is they add juice, how can you overcome that? you have to build a model that is more efficient than the closing line by enough to cover the margin, its that simple, yeah that simple!!!!

[danshan11]

just google sports betting model pdf, you will find 50000000 different models all with explanations, take a look at the math and if you can handle it go for it build your own, if you cant just use the power rankings and adjust for weather, injuries and rest!

[Sam Odom]

Ganchrow is one of the best knowing the math in gambling...

Even he could not beat'em so he joined them

[Carborundum]

so you want to know how to use math at gambling. look up these terms:

kelly criterion
regression
data mining error
standard deviation
martingale

with this knowledge you will be the smartest kid when you major in gambling at u of phoenix.

[sweethook]

6 or 8th grade . youl be fine gl.

[JIBBBY]

That’s gambling in a nutshell, Jibs.

Works for me Cuse.. Put in the capping work and stay disciplined with your bet sizing and you can grind out profits over time.. It really is that simple.. Helps if you have 25 years of sports gambling under your belt like I do and can see angles too.. You live and you learn over time if you can hang in and stay with it..

Most load up and go broke though at some point, better have a job if you do that. Will need to reload often. Gambling is a drug just like alcohol and others.. Can you limit and control the beast and urge is the question?

That is the difference between winning and losing.. Most of us gamblers get greedy though or impatient and load up at some point and lose it all. That's when you need to look in the mirror and check yourself before you wreck yourself.

[Carborundum]

Thanks for all the answers but I specified what I wanted!The theory which you use in math and not how you win with the math!
How is bayes theorem going to help someone who bets if it's only about probability?

very few people win for a reason. it is not as simple as saying tell me how this works. it is much like playing a sport. you can either do it or you can't and even if you have the talent, you have to put in the work. if you have to ask the questions, you can't do it.

[Cuse0323]

That’s gambling in a nutshell, Jibs.

[jjgold]

I love when guys analyze stats and players funny stuff

[JIBBBY]

Then this happens




Skip the math strategies, look for the best value on lines with the books and cap your assss off daily, look for information and streaks!! Stay consistent with your bet sizing and they you can grind out rent money in the end month after month..

My take..

[Inkwell77]

The thing that matters is specializing in something. And you have to be able to create a number

[Cuse0323]

I would have paid more attention in school if I knew being better at math would have helped me gambling. I’m good with just straight numbers. Multiplication, division. Probability, theories, and letters in math not so much. In conclusion, I have no help for you. I was better in English.

[wolly]

Thanks for all the answers but I specified what I wanted!The theory which you use in math and not how you win with the math!
How is bayes theorem going to help someone who bets if it's only about probability?

[Biff41]

A lot of the math is already done for you. The odds.

[flipacoin9698]

its 100% math

best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL

only losers look at that stuff

Smartest thing I have heard today.

[wolly]

No offense but I looked at every mathematical theory and none of them helped me to understand how gambling works. You've only showed me one example of probability. Are there other examples which involves combination,permutations,functions,etc?