Math in gambling

[jjgold]

All math now I know how many squares are here

[wolly]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

So,all these mathematics formulas are totally useless in betting(poker and blackjack included)? I remember that there were winners by these formulas in poker or blackjack(when there were some MIT students)

[Cuse0323]

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person



stupidest thing I ever read

I was hoping he was being sarcastic. I’m number 3, but we don’t generally win. I probably actually pick more winners than losers barely, but I’m an allin bettor so doesn’t mean jack.

[jjgold]

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person



stupidest thing I ever read

[danshan11]

I think a vast majority of math nerds are losers in sports betting. Look at all the people on here who have their own complex systems but still only hit 50%.

I’d say that about 10% of math nerds win long term at sports betting, and about 1% of people who aren’t math nerds win long term.

those numbers are crazy high,
advanced bettors (modelers, math nerds, I say 1% of total advanced bettors win long term
non-math nerds non-modelers win about .1% win long term

most people count a long term winner as someone who wins over like 1000 games and that is super super low to call someone skilled.
1000 records leave tons of space for survivorship bias.

[Cuse0323]

I think a vast majority of math nerds are losers in sports betting. Look at all the people on here who have their own complex systems but still only hit 50%.

I’d say that about 10% of math nerds win long term at sports betting, and about 1% of people who aren’t math nerds win long term.

You’re right. They lose like the rest of us. Just have a slightly better chance of winning.

[bettingman6]

Math nerds are the guys who win, but don’t have as much fun. But they have the money so they are victorious over degenerates like me.

I think a vast majority of math nerds are losers in sports betting. Look at all the people on here who have their own complex systems but still only hit 50%.

I’d say that about 10% of math nerds win long term at sports betting, and about 1% of people who aren’t math nerds win long term.

[danshan11]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

interesting methodology
can you give a real life example

[Cuse0323]

I have fun when I win bud.

Not as much as I do losing.

[Matt17]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

[Matt17]

there are three basic types of sports gamblers:

1) people who bet numbers. they sit around comparing lines at different sports books and bet on lines they think have the most value in comparison to other sports book lines. this requires basic level math skills and some higher level math when you start determining value on parlays, teasers, etc. these types of gamblers are usually math nerds. this is the easiest way to win but also the most boring.

2) people that make their own numbers through a computer model. this requires higher level math skills along with programming skills. these are the most likely to bet professionally.

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person.

Two

[SharpAngles]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

[CappinTerp]

There is only one thing,one needs to know....PRICE,PRICE and Price.

[Carborundum]

there are three basic types of sports gamblers:

1) people who bet numbers. they sit around comparing lines at different sports books and bet on lines they think have the most value in comparison to other sports book lines. this requires basic level math skills and some higher level math when you start determining value on parlays, teasers, etc. these types of gamblers are usually math nerds. this is the easiest way to win but also the most boring.

2) people that make their own numbers through a computer model. this requires higher level math skills along with programming skills. these are the most likely to bet professionally.

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person.

[Darkside Magick]

That theorem looks like probability. What happened to limits,functions,differentiation,integra ls,etc? Don't you use them?

It is conditional probability...major math bettors use to win... Some take it a step further and use (QBism) Quantum bayesianism

[wolly]

If you not using bayes theorem.. You not going to win long term PERIOD

That theorem looks like probability. What happened to limits,functions,differentiation,integra ls,etc? Don't you use them?

[Chi_archie]

need an Abacus for sure

[Matt17]

Math nerds are the guys who win, but don’t have as much fun. But they have the money so they are victorious over degenerates like me.

I have fun when I win bud.

[Darkside Magick]

If you not using bayes theorem.. You not going to win long term PERIOD

[Cuse0323]

Math nerds are the guys who win, but don’t have as much fun. But they have the money so they are victorious over degenerates like me.

[jjgold]

advanced math

[Matt17]

its 100% math

This.

[bettingman6]

its 100% math

best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL

only losers look at that stuff

You can't ignore injuries in betting. That's a really stupid idea.


What you can do is try to figure out if the injured player was overrated or underrated. If he was overrated, then it might be a good idea to bet for his team, because the line was probably adjusted too much for his injury. (In fact, if he was a bad player his injury might actually help the team.) If he was underrated, then it might be good idea to bet against his team, because the line probably wasn't adjusted enough.

[SlickFazzer]

trust your models and instincts.

[wolly]

its 100% math
best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL
only losers look at that stuff

Well,what math? Gymnasium math,Highschool math,College math?

[jjgold]

its 100% math

best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL

only losers look at that stuff

[wolly]

How much math do you need to apply in gambling(poker,sports betttings,etc)? I only learned about permutations and combinations and I have no idea if you use calculus(including integrals,limits and differentiation). I once read a book about some formulas but I could never understand their significance.(there were some weird limits and unfortunately nothing made a lot of sense to me)